Worcester Economy Growth Slows, but is Stable Says Assumption Report

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Thursday, November 05, 2015

GoLocalWorcester Business Team

The latest Worcester Economic Index (WEI) shows that the growth of the greater Worcester economy has slowed, it remains stable. The report released each quarter by Assumption College Professor Thomas White, Ph.D., found that during the third quarter of 2015, the WEI increased at a 1.7% annualized rate. “While still solid, recent data suggests a slowdown from the first half of the year when the WEI increased at approximately 3.6%,” said the report.

“The slowdown is not surprising,” said Professor White, “The local labor market was growing so fast during the first half of the year that is was going to be difficult to maintain that pace.”

All three local leading indicators are currently providing positive signals about the future direction of the Worcester economy. 

The three indicators which are followed for this project are: 

1) online help-wanted advertisements for the Worcester New England City and Town Area (NECTA) (data shows that the number of online job openings is up about 9.5% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the third quarter of 2014); 

2) new business incorporations also for the Worcester NECTA (compared to the third quarter of 2014, the number of incorporations is up about 3%); 

3) statewide initial unemployment claims (since the third quarter of 2014 initial unemployment claims are down over 17% statewide and is at its lowest in 25 years). 

Currently, all three of these indicators are providing positive signals for future economic performance.

According to Professor White, the recent slowdown is expected to continue for the next six-months—the WEI is forecast to only grow at slightly over 1.0%. Although slow growth doesn’t necessarily mean bad news, experts are hesitant in regards to what effect the lagging international economy will have on that of the United States. 

“Currently there are some mixed signals with regard to the national economy,” said Professor White. “The number of jobs added has been fairly modest over the past two months, and it remains to be seen how the slowing European and Chinese economies will affect the U.S. The fact that the Federal Reserve continues to put off raising interest rates means they see some cause for concern in the recent data.”

A full copy of the current report can be found here. 

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Related Slideshow: Bureau of Economic Analysis: Real Personal Income Data for New England Municipalities, 2008-2012

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