Central MA Voter Turnout Critical in Deciding Next Governor

Monday, November 03, 2014

Nicholas Handy, GoLocalWorcester Reporter

Because Worcester and the other towns in Central Massachusetts are diverse and have large representation from all voter groups, the central part of the Commonwealth will be one of the deciding factors in this year’s gubernatorial election.

Many political pundits have said that because this year’s election has been such a low interest race and because voter turnout is projected to be low, each candidate’s get-out-and-vote campaign is going to be crucial; the more voters that come out to support a particular candidate, the better chance they have of winning.

“I think that this is a very close race – within 2-3 points – where voter turnout is going to be a huge factor, especially for Central Massachusetts,” said Paul Giorgio, a longtime political activist in Worcester. “If the turnout is more prevalent in urban areas like Worcester, then Martha Coakley has a great shot at winning but if the turnout is in the suburbs and towns surrounding Worcester then Baker has the best chance of winning. This is a race that that is going to come down to which demographics of voters show up to vote.”

The final polls show a very close race, with Charlie Baker having a slight advantage. The most recent Boston Globe poll shows that Baker also has a lead among men, independent, and self-described moderate voters. Coakley still has the lead among Democrats and women, although her margin among women has narrowed.

Standing Up for Minority Interests

One of the key demographics for Worcester in particular is the minority vote, with only 69.4-percent of the city being white as of 2010 in the most recent Census data.

While minority voters have traditionally voted Democrat in previous elections, it seems as though there is a larger Republican following throughout minority voters in Central Massachusetts this year. Baker has been praised for his urban plans and agendas and his desire to provide increased opportunities for minorities throughout the state.

“Charlie Baker is the clear cut favorite because he is the only candidate that presents real plans for urban centers and for creating a more diverse workforce; he is really working hard to show that he will be a governor for everyone,” said Juan Gomez, President and CEO of Centro Las Americas. “Many of the people I have talked to in the minority populations feel the same way. We are very confident in Charlie Baker because he would be a governor that would work to provide more opportunities to minorities.”

Massachusetts’ Fasting Growing Voting Group

As Massachusetts fastest growing voting group, women and women’s issues have become more and more important in political campaigns, with both Charlie Baker and Martha Coakley spending much time to make sure they are appealing to women.

Martha Coakley may have lost a bit of her lead among women voters – a recent Boston Globe poll shows that she leads Baker 42-percent to 39-percent – but she clearly holds the advantage among women because of the excitement around having the first woman elected governor.

“Coakley has definitely been winning women over with her campaign but it is clear that both candidates are equally concerned with reaching out to women in this election,” said Samantha Washburn-Baronie, Executive Director of the Massachusetts Women’s Political Caucus. “In this election cycle, women are not only concerned with women’s issues involving health and equality, but also things like job creation and the economy. Women are excited more than ever to bring a woman into office, which will happen regardless of who is elected.”

Related Slideshow: MA Election Predictions: Political Experts Weigh In

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Paul Giorgio

GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™

MA Governor: Coakley

9th Worcester (House): Green

12th Worcester (House): Naughton Jr.

17th Worcester (House): Belanger

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Gobi

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Chandler

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Chris Pinto

Worcester Republican City Committee

MA Governor: Baker

9th Worcester (House): Green

12th Worcester (House): Wyatt

17th Worcester (House): Belanger

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Valenzola

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Norfolk): Fattman

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Franco

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Bill McCarthy

Worcester Representative, Massachusetts Republican Party

MA Governor: Baker

9th Worcester (House): Muradian

12th Worcester (House): Wyatt

17th Worcester (House): Campanale

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Valanzola

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Norfolk): Fattman

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Franco

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Erin O'Brien

Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass Boston

MA Governor: “Right now, the polls are suggesting a toss up. I think that Coakley has the support of the numbers game; there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts. But I think that Baker has the advantage of there not being a higher profile race on the ballot. There are also a lot of people who think that what happened to Coakley in losing to Scott Brown in 2010 may happen again against Baker.”

MA Attorney General: “I think that Maura Healey is the biggest star to emerge from this election cycle. I think that she will win by a large margin, by as much as 20-30 points.”

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Tobe Berkovitz

Associate Professor of Advertising, Boston University

“Right now, I think the governor’s race is too close to call. I think that Massachusetts sort of has a political burnout at the moment; I think that the Brown v. Warren race sucked the energy out of the politicos. And when you look at Baker and Coakley, both candidates are solid but neither is the definitive candidate that either party can fully stand behind.”