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HURRICANE UPDATE 12PM: Sandy Remains A Major Threat to New England

Saturday, October 27, 2012

 

While we all watch Sandy's progress up the East Coast today, it is most important to continue to remember that Sandy will not be a “quick-hitter”. In a worst-case scenario, because of the size and slow movement of the circulation we could experience a day or more of strong wind and heavy rain and perhaps another 2 or 3 days of residual after effects. The storm will be long and intense.

Sandy's position and projections

As of 11AM Sandy was located just over 900 miles south-southwest of Providence and moving slowly to the north. The track projections from several computer mathematical models continue to call for a track that will bring Sandy northward well offshore east of the Carolinas by Monday. At that point the center is expected to begin a left turn toward the East Coast. Whether it will be a sharp turn into the Mid-Atlantic or a gradual turn landing somewhere on Long Island is still not certain although the most spot favored by the models is near Atlantic City, New Jersey. However, we shouldn’t overly concentrate on the exact landfall point since the storm is and will be very large, covering thousands of square miles.

Dangers for Southern New England

Sandy should intensify some as it interacts with energy in the more northern latitudes and begins to morph into a non-tropical system. While it is still too early to put specific numbers on the wind, rain and flooding affects expected here in Southern New England, we should continue to prepare for strong, perhaps hurricane force wind gusts that may cause enough damage to produce widespread power outages. Heavy tropical rains are also possible and severe coastal flooding is also likely. Beach battering and erosion should be a major problem as astronomically high tides are expected this week. Tides on Narragansett Bay will be high 8-10 AM and PM on Monday and Tuesday.

I will continue to have updates through the weekend as more data comes in and as Sandy moves closer. 

 

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