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HURRICANE UPDATE: Hurricane Sandy Starts Her Move Up The US Coast

Saturday, October 27, 2012

 

All eyes are on Hurricane Sandy as it begins its move up the coast of the US, and we here in New England are keenly watching whether we will be in the path of a major, potentially devastating storm. Here is my latest take, based on what we now so far.

Flooding, wind + rain guaranteed

It is very apparent that no matter what the exact track of Sandy ends up being, we will be experiencing at least some wind, rain, coastal flooding and perhaps a whole lot more as early as sometime on Monday. This far out, timing of those events is not very precise. It is likely that Sandy will not be a “quick-hitter.” In a worst-case scenario, because of the size and slow movement of the circulation we could experience a day or more of strong wind and heavy rain and perhaps another 2 or 3 days of residual after affects.

Sandy's track: Mid-Atlantic or Long Island?

Right now Sandy is located just under 1,000 miles south of New England and moving slowly to the north. The track projections from several computer mathematical models continue to call for a track that will bring Sandy northward well offshore east of the Carolinas by Monday. At that point, the center is expected to begin a left turn toward the East Coast. Whether it will be a sharp turn into the Mid-Atlantic or a gradual turn landing somewhere on Long Island is still the big question that should be answered by early Saturday morning.

Look ahead for Sandy to intensify

Sandy should intensify some as it interacts with energy in the more northern latitudes and begins to morph into a non-tropical system. While it is still far too early to put specific numbers on the wind, rain and flooding effects expected here in Southern New England, we should continue to prepare for strong, perhaps hurricane force wind gusts that may cause enough damage to produce widespread power outages. Heavy tropical rains are also possible, as well as severe coastal flooding. Beach battering and erosion could well be a major problem as astronomically high tides are expected this week. If the storm hooks sharply left into, say, the Delmarva area those affects would still be severe but somewhat diminished over the worst case scenario.

I will continue to have updates through the weekend as more solid data comes in and as Sandy moves closer. 

 

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