slides: MA Election Predictions: Political Experts Weigh In

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Nicholas Handy, GoLocalWorcester Contributor

The residents of Massachusetts are three weeks away from deciding who the next elected officials of their state will be and according to polls and political experts, the governor’s race is still anyone’s game.

In weighing the advantages and disadvantages of each candidate and their campaign, many are giving the advantage to Coakley, but say that the election is far from over because Baker has a lot of upside. Additionally, neither candidate presents himself or herself with the wow factor that makes them stand out as the clear candidate, making each candidates get out the vote campaign that much more important.

“Right now, the polls are suggesting a toss up. I think that Coakley has the support of the numbers game; there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts,” said Erin O’Brien, Associate Professor of Political Science at UMass Boston. “But I think that Baker has the advantage of there not being a higher profile race on the ballot. There are also a lot of people who think that what happened to Coakley in losing to Scott Brown in 2010 may happen again against Baker.”

Three recent polls – conducted by Emerson College/WGBH, the Boston Globe, and WBUR - have Charlie Baker and Martha Coakley anywhere from two to six points apart, with two polls having Coakley on top and one poll favoring Baker.

Lack of Excitement for Statewide Races

While the race for the next governor of Massachusetts has seen a degree of excitement and chatter throughout the state, many feel that this political season is quite boring in comparison to year’s past.

“I think that Massachusetts sort of has a political burnout at the moment,” said Associate Professor of Advertising at Boston University. “I think that the Brown v. Warren race sucked the energy out of the politicos.”

Because of the lack of excitement for statewide political races, combined with the overwhelming amount of Democrats throughout the state, many believe that the statewide races were already decided at the primary: whoever won on the Democratic ticket will likely be the winner come election day.

Can Coakley hold off Baker or will she lose like she did to Brown in 2010?

“I think that the bottom line is that outside the governor’s race, all the other offices will be Democrat,” said Paul Giorgio, a longtime Democratic political activist. “I would venture that many people can’t even name some of the Republican candidates running for office this year on the statewide level.”

The Battle for Senate/House Control

Despite the overall lack of excitement for statewide races for Attorney General, State Auditor, and Treasurer, there is still a degree of competitive spirit and excitement when looking at many of the House and Senate races in Central Massachusetts.

While races for the Worcester 15th and 16th districts are essentially decided because there is no Republican opposition, Republicans are hoping that this could be the year that they can chip into supermajority control in both the Senate and the House. Local republicans note that there is a list of quality candidates that have the tools and the message to permeate a Democratically dominated Massachusetts.

“The most important aspect of any great campaign is a great ground game, having a candidate that can identify with residents and get their message out by going door-to-door,” said Bill McCarthy, a Worcester Representative of MassGOP State Committee. “This is something that Democrats have been doing for a long time; identifying the voters and showing them their ideas. I think that many of the Republicans are doing a great job of going door-to-door and utilizing a successful get out and vote campaign, which I think will help come Election Day.”

Related Slideshow: MA Election Predictions: Political Experts Weigh In

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Paul Giorgio

GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™

MA Governor: Coakley

9th Worcester (House): Green

12th Worcester (House): Naughton Jr.

17th Worcester (House): Belanger

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Gobi

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Chandler

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Chris Pinto

Worcester Republican City Committee

MA Governor: Baker

9th Worcester (House): Green

12th Worcester (House): Wyatt

17th Worcester (House): Belanger

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Valenzola

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Norfolk): Fattman

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Franco

Prev Next

Bill McCarthy

Worcester Representative, Massachusetts Republican Party

MA Governor: Baker

9th Worcester (House): Muradian

12th Worcester (House): Wyatt

17th Worcester (House): Campanale

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire and Middlesex): Valanzola

Worcester Senate (Worcester, Norfolk): Fattman

Worcester Senate (Worcester 1st): Franco

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Erin O'Brien

Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass Boston

MA Governor: “Right now, the polls are suggesting a toss up. I think that Coakley has the support of the numbers game; there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans in Massachusetts. But I think that Baker has the advantage of there not being a higher profile race on the ballot. There are also a lot of people who think that what happened to Coakley in losing to Scott Brown in 2010 may happen again against Baker.”

MA Attorney General: “I think that Maura Healey is the biggest star to emerge from this election cycle. I think that she will win by a large margin, by as much as 20-30 points.”

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Tobe Berkovitz

Associate Professor of Advertising, Boston University

“Right now, I think the governor’s race is too close to call. I think that Massachusetts sort of has a political burnout at the moment; I think that the Brown v. Warren race sucked the energy out of the politicos. And when you look at Baker and Coakley, both candidates are solid but neither is the definitive candidate that either party can fully stand behind.”