MA Primary Predictions: Political Experts Weigh In
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
A lot of grassroots campaigning and a wealth of advertisements and news releases are being sent out in order to push various candidates’ messages to likely voters.
“Because it is so early, people are just starting to get informed when the primary comes around,” said Erin O’Brien, Associate Professor of Political Science at UMass Boston. “Because of this, candidates really need to push their messages and their names so that they can gain critical name recognition.”
Because some of the races only have candidates from one party, the primary oftentimes becomes a critical battleground, a vote that could ultimately decide the election.
Democratic Primary for Governor
While some political experts still feel that the primary is Coakley’s to lose, there are those who see the most recent Suffolk-Herald poll as a sign of Grossman gaining momentum.
Once leading her opponents by as much as 40-points, Coakley now only has a 12-percent lead over Grossman, with the Suffolk-Herald poll of 400 likely voters saying Coakley has 42-percent of the vote compared to Grossman’s 30-percent. Additionally, the third Democratic candidate – Don Berwick – is up to 16-percent of the vote, a sign that he may be pulling votes from the other two candidates.
“I think that this primary is Coakley’s to lose,” said Paul Giorgio, a longtime Worcester Democratic political activist. “Grossman is spending an awful lot of money and it shows in the recent poll. These next two weeks will be crucial but Coakley still benefits from better name recognition.”
Other Statewide Races
According to the Suffolk-Herald poll, Steve Kerrigan, Leland Cheung and Mike Lake – the Democratic candidates for Lt. Governor are all tied with 9-percent of the vote (the rest are undecided). The poll also shows a tight race between Warren Tolman and Maura Healey, with Tolman receiving 35-percent of the vote to Healey’s 29-percent.
Political experts also see the competition for Treasurer – the Democratic Primary pits Deborah Goldberg, Barry Finegold, and Thomas Conroy against each other – being especially tight. Because of a lowly projected voter turnout – expected to be less than 20-percent – many political pundits feel that these campaigns need to be aggressive in the coming weeks to secure their position as the leading candidate.
“This has been a very quiet primary race,” said Steve “Q” Quist, a Worcester activist and political enthusiast. “I really think that these candidates need to crank things up a notch to get their names and messages out there. Right now you are looking at very low numbers for voter turn out; you really need to make yourself known as a candidate and show what makes you different.”
Worcester Rep Races
The Worcester 15th (Keefe v. Palmieri v. Perez), 16th (Donahue v. Perro), and 17th (Germain v. Dixon v. Belanger), district seats all have tense Democratic battles heading into the primary. With a lack of Republican competition, these races will likely be decided within the next two weeks.
“I think that there are a lot of really great Democratic candidates in these local races,” said Candy Carlson, the Chair or the Worcester Democratic City Committee. “These are all races that are going to be very close. Two weeks in politics is a lifetime; the best way for some of these candidates to separate themselves is to push the ground game so they can really get their names out there to voters.”
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