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Professor Who Has Predicted Last 8 Elections, Says Trump Will Be Impeached

Monday, December 04, 2017


President Donald Trump

American University's Allan Lichtman, dubbed the "Prediction Professor" for accurately calling almost every presidential election since 1984, including the 2016 election, has forecasted the impeachment of President-elect Donald Trump -- and talked with GoLocal following Michael Flynn's charges on Friday. 

"The Flynn charge is central to the case for impeachment against Donald Trump," Lichtman told GoLocal. "I published my book back in April. I said a Russian Damocles in hanging over the administration.  And it's about to fall."

The model that Lichtman created with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, known as The Keys to the White House, has accurately predicted the popular vote winner of all of the U.S. presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.

In 2000, Lichtman incorrectly predicted that Al Gore would win the presidency in 2000 but claimed he had predicted the popular vote winner. Lichtman was wrong in predicting a popular vote win for Donald Trump, although Trump won the Electoral College.

In April 2017, Lichtman authored the book The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.  It comes out in paperback in January

"The 'Lichtman Rule of Politics' -- the guy a the top always knows," said Lichtman. "Who cares about Flynn, if he goes to jail or not?  Donald Trump is the most powerful person in the world. It matters tremendously the fate of Donald Trump and Mike Pence -- who, I believe, up to his neck of this.  Flynn, in the snippet we heard -- we heard him talk about the transition team.  And who headed the transition team?  Pence."

Lichtman on Mueller

"Mueller is a seasoned prosecutor. He doesn't give someone a sweetheart deal unless he can implicate someone above him. And this is a Nixonian cover-up," said Lichtman. "First, it was no one had contact with the Russians.  Then dozens of [Trump associates] had contacts with the Russians. Now we know it goes to the top. Flynn was talking about some of the most central important foreign policies related to Russia, and critical sanctions."

Professor Allan Lichtman

"Do you think 10 or 12 people wake up one morning and independently decide without guidance from the President they'll contact the Russians? We know Trump is a hands-on businessman," said  Lichtman. "Do you think all these people are going to contact the Russian and the President is blissfully unaware?"

Lichtman spoke to what to expect next from Muller. 

"Special counsels don't work quickly. In the case of Iran-Contras, special counsel didn't release the report for two and half years," said Lichtman. "Don't expect the world to explode tomorrow. Mueller is methodical -- we might see more deals, and more indictments that touch people close to the president -- whether that's Kushner, Trump Jr, Sessions. All have engaged, from what we publicly know, in potentially criminal activity.

Lichtman on Methodology

Lichtman spoke to how he has achieved success in Presidential predictions. 

"I will part the curtain from the magician," said Lichtman. "I did it by absolutely being contrary to conventional wisdom -- forget the pundits, and polls, and looking at the day to day events of the campaign."

"My system, which I developed in 1981, is based on an examination of every election since 1860," said Lichtman. "Elections are referendum votes, up or down, on whether voters believe the party holding the White House deserves another four years."

"There are 13 keys to this," said Lichtman, who noted they are contained in his most recent book "2016 was a change election -- any Republican would have beaten any Democrat in 2016."

"In terms of impeachment, my prediction is based on the history of the impeachment process," said Lichtman. "You got to study history.  One out of every 14 Presidents has been impeached, which includes Nixon."

"And if you're a gambler, you've gambled on longer odds than that," said Lichtman. 


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