slides: 10 Things to Know for the 2014 Governor’s Race
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Monday, June 16, 2014
GoLocalWorcester Political Team
Take a look at 10 factors in this year's Governor's race in the Commonwealth.
From fundraising to media to th X factors that may emerge in the race - take a tour of the race to date.
Related Slideshow: MA Gov’s Race Takes Shape - 10 Things to Know
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Choke Factor
Coakley Choke Factor
In 2010, Martha Coakley was the heir apparent to Teddy Kennedy's storied U.S. Senate seat. She then ran one of the countries all time worst campaigns and lost to a little known state legislator from Wrentham.
The loss to Brown was linked to her arrogance, lack of hard work and inability to connect with voters.
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Insider
Steve Grossman - Insider
Steve Grossman's win at the convention this weekend helped to establish him as the new front runner, but the downside is the conventions are awesome about being the insider and that is a reputation that could haunt him in a tough primary battle.
Grossman who once chaired the Democratic National Party and ran for Governor in 2002 (lost in Democrat primary to Shannon O'Brien).
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Policy Wonk
Berwick - Policy Wonk
Don Berwick has made a national reputation on the issue of healthcare quality. His work at Harvard and then as the head of one of the biggest federal agencies - Center for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) - define him as an expert in healthcare, but also of big bureaucracies.
The recent Suffolk University Poll found that Berwick only garners 4% of Dem primary voters.
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Weak
Baker Should Be Stronger
Charlie Baker ran 4 years ago against incumbent Deval Patrick and should have a significant edge over Steve Grossman and Martha Coakley, but recent polls should that both Democrats are highly competitive.
According to Suffolk University's polling, "Attorney General Coakley (36 percent) led Baker (29 percent), with 27 percent undecided. The race has closed some since the February poll, when Coakley led Baker 44 percent to 31 percent, with 19 percent undecided."
In the battle with Grossman, Baker has the edge, "The spread between Baker (27 percent) and Grossman (24 percent) is closer than it was this past winter."
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Vision
Vision
It is hard to get a sense of what any of the GOP or Democratic candidates are articulating. At this stage of the race it is all pretty vanilla. Love her or hate her, everyone in the Commonwealth knows that Elizabeth Warren is tough on the banking industry and has big ideas on how to reform the college debt issue.
If Coakley, Baker, Grossman or Berwick has a big vision for the Commonwealth it would be great if they would share it with the rest of us.
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X Factor
X Factors
Casinos, marijuana or another issue could emerge as an X Factor in either the primary or the general election. Gaming, which has been poorly managed by the Patrick Administration, is losing public support.
Medical marijuana's implementation has been slow and badly executed (as GoLocalWorcester unveiled last week). The big question facing the candidates may be the push to legalize marijuana.
In every election season, an issue comes out of nowhere that re-calibrates the race. Let's wait and see what the big issue is this cycle.
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RINO
Baker a RINO
While Tea Party rival Mark Fisher may be off the ballot, the impact may be that many central and Western Mass conservatives see Baker as a RINO and will sit the race out.
For Baker to win - he needs every Republican and many an independent voter. Conservatives are feeling empowered after the Virginia House primary and Eric Cantor's defeat.
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$$$$$$
$$$$$$
It may all come down to money - at the end of March (the close of Q1), Steve Grossman had the lead with $967,000 on hand.
Republican Charlie Baker had $731,000.
Martha Coakley recorded $519,000.
Don Berwick scored just $150,000.
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Media
Media
Who will break through taking their vision for the Commonwealth and communicating it most effectively on TV or online?
It may all come down to who has the best media.
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Women
Women
Women voters in Massachusetts will decide who is the next governor. Can Coakley capture their excitement?
If she can't, can a Republican like Charlie Baker hold enough women voters to win in November?
She will decide.
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