8 Key Political Questions for 2013

Monday, November 26, 2012

Adam Joseph Drici, GoLocalWorcester Contributor

New Year's Day is just over a month away, and Massachusetts is still trying to figure out what this month's election results will mean for the year ahead. GoLocalWorcester breaks down eight key political questions for 2013.

Who Will Run for Governor?

Deval Patrick has already made it clear that he will not seek another term, so the Governor's seat will be up for grabs in 2014. Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray has expressed his interest in taking the top job, though he has not formally announced his candidacy, but there are plenty of other top Democrats with less tarnished resumés who may be gunning for the seat as well. Ed Markey and Martha Coakley's names have been thrown around.

Across the aisle, Republicans will have a lot of options. Scott Brown and Richard Tisei are both high-profile moderates, a formula that has proven successful on Beacon Hill in the past.

Who Will Replace John Kerry?

Kerry's silence on the possibility of a cabinet appointment for President Obama's second term seems only to add credence to the speculation that he will be Secretary of Defense or Secretary of State soon enough, which will open up one of the Commonwealth's Senate seats yet again.

Coming so close on the heels of the 2012 Senate race, Democrats may have a harder time searching out the most viable candidate for Kerry's seat, having just sent Elizabeth Warren, presumably their best prospect, to Washington after ousting Scott Brown. Patrick and company will appoint an interim prior to any special election that might be held, and the Governor may be less willing to insist on choosing someone who will not run for a full six years in Washington (Kerry's term expires in 2014). However, Patrick might if he has eyes for the seat himself.

Scott Brown would be the clear front-runner on the Republican side, having already spent two years in the job. But that experience, and the loss to Warren which cut it short, may end up working against him. Bay Staters voted for a wholly Democratic delegation to send to Washington. Now that President Obama will be in office for another four years, they may be more willing to consider a bipartisan delegation.

What's Next for Deval Patrick?

While the Governor has said he will not seek another term, he has also said he is intent on finishing out his current one, dispelling rumors that he might be headed to Obama's cabinet along with Kerry to succeed Attorney General Eric Holder.

Patrick's recent directive, based off an order issued by the President this summer, to the Commonwealth's public colleges and universities to offer in-state tuition to illegal immigrants with work permits may have cost him some support in the state house, but it may have simultaneously gained him more support on the national stage, where some observers are already speculating he could make a run for the White House in 2016.

What Kind of Senator Will Elizabeth Warren Be?

Now that Professor Warren is Senator-elect Warren, the questions have moved from her background to what kind of work she will do going forward. Warren has already joined a number of Senate Democrats, including Jeff Merkley, Tom Udall and Kirsten Gillibrand, to call for filibuster reform on her first day in Washington. While such reforms might ease the mechanical gridlock in Congress, as an outspoken critic of the status quo in Washington, Warren may still be stonewalled by the same partisan gridlock she was elected to fight.

What Does the Future of the MassGOP Look Like?

The Massachusetts Republican Party rejected the national party platform this month after postponing a vote on it until after the general election. However, the party did adopt Mitt Romney's presidential platform in addition to its existing state party platform, even though it already proved to be a losing ticket for the former Governor. The MassGOP two most visible candidates on the national stage this fall were Scott Brown and Richard Tisei, who both lost, but who both still enjoy solidly positive reputations in the Bay State. Will they be the leading face of the party going forward, or will that task fall to younger conservative members rising in the State House like Rep. Ryan Fattman?

What Role Will Scott Brown Play?

He still has cash, he still has supporters and, at 53, he still has a lot of political career ahead of him. The question is: where will that career play out? While Brown is an obvious frontrunner for an open Senate seat, he also would be a top Republican choice for Governor. The risk of running for Senate again so soon after losing is that another loss could be a career-ender. A successful stint as Governor, on the other hand, could set Brown up for an eventual return to Washington on his own terms.

Whither the Tax Rates?

The Commonwealth's property taxes ranked 47th in the 2013 Business Tax Climate Index from the non-partisan Tax Foundation. While municipalities across the state double down on tax increment financing to attract businesses that will create local jobs, healthcare and benefits for retirees continue to drive up costs on the other side of the equation, and cities and towns have to find the money somewhere.

On the state level, the Commonwealth's tax collection for October of this year was $48 million less than in October 2011, and Massachusetts is currently $256 million behind its projected tax revenue collection since the start of the fiscal year on July 1. Talk about raising the state income tax is likely to resurface in the next legislative session if tax revenue continues on its current course.

Where are the Jobs?

The state keeps adding jobs, but the unemployment rate continues to rise. It reached 6.6 percent in October, up from 6.1 percent this summer. With both jobs and unemployment inching upward, it seems that either some larger issue is at play or that current measures of unemployment fail to adequately measure the real situation on the ground in the Commonwealth when it comes to people still looking for full-time work.

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