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ANALYSIS: Did Worcester Turn More Left of Right in the Election

Thursday, November 05, 2015

 

The 2015 Worcester Election is in the books, but the take away of the results are in dispute.

The question is did Worcester move to a more fiscally conservative position behind candidates that are Conservative Democrats or Republicans or was the overwhelmingly Democratic power structure only reinforce its dominance behind a big 11% point win by Mayor Joe Petty.

The race had three dynamics to it - the Mayoral, the Council races and the election of the School Committee. Each of these races seem to have their own dynamic and outcome, but the results do point to some trends.

“Local election outcomes in Worcester do not typically translate into a simple “left vs. right” grid, not only because our elections are nonpartisan (and most elected officials are in fact Democrats, which doesn’t prevent them from competing against each other), but because the outcomes are affected by a multitude of factors,” said David Lewis Schaefer, Professor of Political Science, College of the Holy Cross.


Joe Petty, Mayor

The Mayor’s Race

In the early summer, the race between Michael Gaffney and incumbent Mayor Joe Petty looked to have the making of an upset. With questions about crime and the condition of the Worcester Schools, Petty looked vulnerable to being picked off. But two things transpired, one Petty and his team leveraged the Democratic organization in Worcester to gain momentum. Simultaneously, Gaffney shifted his strategy and abandoned social media, updating his website, and issuing press releases. Those involved with his campaign told GoLocal that his focus shifted to a ground game of going door-to-door to meet as many Worcester voters as possible.

The impact of the Gaffney decision to abandon the top-level political strategy may have been his undoing. Instead of riding the wave of an upset like 23-year-old Jasiel Correia pulled off against incumbent Mayor Sam Sutter in Fall River, Gaffney let the power of the Mayor’s office to take control.

Petty beat Gaffney by a comfortable 11-points.

“Petty should be very nervous. Gaffney was a long shot. Not anymore. He is clearly within striking distance now,” said Worcester GOP leader Chris Pinto.

“Nonetheless, the most significant results in this election in my judgment were the rise of Mike Gaffney to no. 2 among at-large candidates to the City Council, and the return of Donna Colorio to the school committee (after she had lost her previous bid for re-election), surprisingly coming in this time in the no,” said Schaefer. 


City Council

The race for the Council is another solid win for Democrats and pro-labor forces. Khrystian King, who is a strong leader in the Massachusetts labor movement is a strong progressive Democrat. The former staffer for Local 509 of the SEIU and now a top player at the National Association of Social Workers in Massachusetts is a big win for the Democrats. King is an enthusiastic and ambitious new leader. As the result of the Council’s ideological weight remained functionally the same, the King win points to another Democratic victory.

“…I have no explanation for Khystian King’s winning a place on the Council, since I expected the race for the vacant seat to be won by either ex-councilor Juan Gomez  or newcomer Matthew Wally, who ran a strong campaign. Gomez, as a Latino Republican, would have added a genuinely diverse voice to the Council’s deliberations, while I anticipate that Wally will be heard from again, said Schaefer, “In other words, both of them have good reason to pursue a Council seat in 2017.

 

School Committee

Tracey Novick, a big loss for Progressives

The win for conservatives was at the school committee level. It was both addition by addition and addition by subtraction. First, the election of Colorio and that she was the second highest vote getter is an indication of the agenda of the School Committee moving to be more conservative — more police on school campuses, potential rejection of Common Core and a more fiscally restrained committee.

“Donna Colorio highlighted her opposition to the imposition of the Common Core curriculum, in place of the superior MCAS standards developed by the Massachusetts Board of Education during the years preceding the Patrick administration, as well as the problem of security in our schools. Tracy Novick’s failure to win re-election may well reflect concern over her refusal to support the assignment of policemen to curb gang violence at North High,” said Schaefer.

The loss of Novick and her margin of defeat was a clear indication that the progressive Democrat Novick was out of touch with voters. "I was asked tonight if I'd change anything about it: no, I wouldn't. At the end of the day, the final person I have to live with is me. My comments, my votes, my speeches, have all been what I truly think and know and have researched," Novick posted to her blog on Election night after her defeat.

GOP City leader Pinto said, “The School committee has clearly moved to the right and away from the wrong side where all they cared about was how much are we spending per student (from a committee member that doesn't pay property taxes).”

“I was quite surprised that the previously unknown Molly McCullough beat out incumbent Hilda Ramirez for a School Committee seat, the only explanation being that McCullough is politically very well-connected (as the granddaughter of one-time Worcester mayor Jimmy O’Brien) and significantly outdid Ramirez in fundraising,” said Schaefer.

 

Related Slideshow: 10 Issues That Will Separate Gaffney and Petty in Worcester’s Mayoral Election

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#10 Transparency

As part of his political platform, Gaffney is pushing for transparency at all levels in the city's government.

In the past few weeks alone, Gaffney has requested an audit of Mosaic Cultural Complex, an organization that calls itself a nonprofit, but is a business and who runs their company out of a building owned by the City - the same building that the Kelley Square protesters organized in back in January.

Gaffney's request for an audit read: "Request an audit of the grants and other monies received by the Mosaic Cultural Complex and all documentation relative to the services the Mosaic Cultural Complex provides, to include, but not limited to documentation of the services that are supposed to be provided pursuant to the grant from the Prevention and Wellness Trust Fund for the past five years. Said audit to include a review of the Mosaic Cultural Complex’s legal status as a non-profit or otherwise. And said documentation to include the lease information for the city property being occupied by the Mosaic Cultural Complex."

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#9 Social Media

In this year's elections, and in every election that follows, social media will play an active role in promoting candidates and issues.

In Worcester's mayoral election, Gaffney's new mayoral Facebook page already has more "likes" than Mayor Petty's.

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#8 Visibility

Both Petty and Gaffney have been actively hosting stand-outs all over the city.

In the next two weeks, Petty has four standouts scheduled

Gaffney continues to do stand-outs during the mornings and he and his wife, Coreen, have been going door-to-door for the past few weeks now.

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#7 Race Relations

Monday night marked the closing of Worcester's Community Race Discussions. Mayor Joe Petty spoke at length regarding the work that still needs to be done to improve relationships between all races in the city.

Addressing the needs of Worcester's minority groups has been a strong suit of Petty and it has earned him solid support from said groups.

Gaffney will need to address how he will improve these relations within in the city if he wants to defeat Petty in this race.

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#6 Congressman Jim McGovern

As reported on previously, Gaffney and Petty have both accepted substantial campaign contributions from outside the city.

Dr. David Schaeffer, Political Science professor at the College of the Holy Cross, believes the candidates are gearing up with large war chests with an eye on a larger elected position.

"The likeliest reason for it is a report that (Congressman) Jim McGovern, who has close ties with Petty, is worried about Gaffney's candidacy for mayor. Gaffney, unusual for a Worcester city council member, is not a registered Democrat, and hence, in McGovern's eyes, a potential threat to his control over the City and his Congressional seat," said Dr.Schaeffer.

Schaeffer notes that although McGovern has been running unopposed and winning re-election, the number of Republican or Independent voters outside of Worcester, but within the district, has been increasing. 

"Whether or not Gaffney himself would choose, if elected mayor, to challenge McGovern for the seat by running as a Republican, even McGovern's loss of direct influence over the mayoral office might signal a weakening of his power and an invitation for a serious Republican candidate like Lew Evangelidis to run against him," said Schaeffer. "For this reason, I can well understand McGovern's wanting to help Petty raise more money from outside the city, as well as Gaffney's doing so, either seeing it as essential to mounting a serious challenge to the McGovern machine or as a defense against Petty's outside funding."

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#5 School Safety

On Gaffney's campaign site, he writes "Safety begins in our schools. When teachers, students, and vice principals are physically attacked on multiple occasions and the School Committee along with the Mayor as the Chair thereof refused to take action, I demanded that the police be placed in our high schools. The next day, an unplanned emergency meeting was held and the police were placed in our high schools."

Gaffney continued, "While the School Committee and Mayor continued to chant "the schools are safe" after a high school student brought a hand gun to school with the stated intention of shooting a police officer, I along with others, called for further safety protocols."

Petty has been a strong supporter of Superintendent Melinda Boone and has routinely been against a police presence in Worcester's schools. 

It will be interesting to watch the steps to ensure safety taken by Petty and the School Committee when school opens in August.

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#4 Police Force

Following this month's rise in shootings across the city, Petty, along with City Manager Ed Augustus released a statement regarding what the city's plans were to attempt to put an end to gang activity in Worcester.

According to the statement, Petty and Augustus are "gravely concerned" about the shootings and the city "continues to be affected by unacceptable levels of gun violence."

In response to the shootings, Gaffney requested emergency funding to help WPD's efforts. Gaffney's request read: "Due to the continuing violence that appears to be escalading from last year’s high number of shootings in our city, request an oral report from the City Manager and/or Chief of Police on the plan to combat this increasing public safety issue. Further, request that City Council authorize any emergency funds needed be immediately transferred to battle the threat. Such funds to be used as deemed necessary by law enforcement and to include the authorization of additional resources or personnel required to fulfill the mission to restore public safety."

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#3 Experience

Petty will be attempting to secure his third term as Mayor of Worcester. Petty is also in the midst of his ninth term as City Councilor At-Large.

Gaffney is serving his first term as a City Councilor At-Large. 

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#2 Political Party Support

Gaffney, who is not enrolled in a political party, is being supported by several individuals who have backed Republican candidates across Massachusetts - including Carl Copeland, Mass Fiscal Alliance’s Political Director and Senator Ryan Fattman’s campaign manager.

Other members of Mass Fiscal Alliance including Executive Director Paul Craney and former finance committee chairman John Esler, and Republican State Committee Chair Member Chanel Prunier have also supported Gaffney.

Gaffney announced his candidacy for mayor back in February. He kicked off his campaign in March with an event at O’Connor’s Restaurant in Worcester. The event was hosted by State Representative Kate Campanale and Fattman's wife, Worcester County Register of Probate Stephanie Fattman - both of whom were backed by the same group of people in last year's election.

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#1 Money

As of July 4, 2015, Petty had twice as much campaign money as Gaffney. According to the Office of Campaign and Political Finance, Petty has nearly $10,000 (down from $20,000 on June 18) in campaign cash, while Gaffney has $4,357.

With all of the above issues playing a factor in fundraising, and with Petty's previous experience in fundraising, Gaffney has his work cut out for him to catch Petty's campaign contributions.

 
 

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