Could the Massachusetts Presidential Primaries Finally Matter

Monday, January 25, 2016

GoLocalWorcester and GRAPHIQ

In most Presidential cycles, the Massachusetts primary is a non-important political event, but in 2016 both the Republican and Democratic primaries are highly competitive and the Commonwealth may be critically important to deciding who are the respective nominees of each party.

The Massachusetts Presidential primary for both parties is March 1, 2016. SEE THE PRIMARY SCHEDULE BELOW

The Commonwealth’s Democratic primary may be more important than the GOP. As it could play an important strategic role for both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. As Iowa is looking like a toss-up and Sanders has opened a substantial lead in New Hampshire, those primaries directly following may turn into either a firewall for Clinton to stop the Sanders momentum, but could be the gasoline that fuels a Sanders upset.

Just 60 days ago Clinton was leading both Iowa and New Hampshire was a toss-up, but with Sanders now picking up tremendous momentum in both states, everything is up for grabs.

In two polls in November and October respectively, Clinton was leading Sanders by 25% in the Boston Globe poll and 34% in the Emerson College poll, but similarly in the Iowa polls in November Clinton led Sanders by 24%. That race is now tied.

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

Sanders and Warren

The senior U.S. Senator in Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren is the only female Democratic Senator not to endorse Clinton and fact that she and Sanders are ideologically nearly identical creates a conundrum for her. Will Warren make a move towards Sanders before Bay State resident go an vote in the primaries? Would that replicate the impact when then-Senator Ted Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in 2008.

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

What if

Is Sanders does hold his margin of error lead in Iowa (as of January 24) and were to win and then go to New Hampshire and handily defeat Clinton (he is leading in the CBS/You Gov poll 57% Sanders 38% Clinton), then there would be only one caucus — Nevada (closed) and one primary — South Carolina — before the then, all important March 1 primaries.

Sanders winning the first two all important events would create serious questions about Clinton. It would raise questions if she is a viable candidate after having insurmountable leads, advantages in money and organization in both 2008 and again in 2016.

March 1 Primaries Across the US

The line-up for March first is substantial, besides the Commonwealth, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Minnesota, Georgia, Colorado, Arkansas, Alabama and American Samoa all vote on the Democratic side. And, Massachusetts is second only to Texas in the number of delegates (MA 122, Texas 237).

GOP Presidential Candidate Donald Trump

GOP Primary

Similarly, there have only been two polls on the GOP sides as well. The Boston Globe/Suffolk University Poll had Trump up 14 points (conducted in November) and in the Emerson Poll Trump was up 34% - it was conducted back in October. Since those polls, Trumps momentum in the Massachusetts and across the country has exploded. His two overflowing rallies in Worcester and Lowell bolstered the largest political crowds of the election cycle and his lead in the national polling has hit new levels — on Friday, January 22, Trump was at 34% and had a 14% lead over his next closest competitor Texas Senator Ted Cruz who was at 20% — the poll was conducted by FOX News.

But a win by Cruz in Iowa will change the course of the primary season and throw the nomination into greater question. For Trump it is all about the perception of him as a "winner," so a few losses or margin of victory that are not impressive, the GOP nomination process may take yet another unexpected turn.

Related Slideshow: Presidential Visits to Worcester

Prev Next

George Washington

Year: 1775

Reason for Visit: Passed through Worcester on his way to take command of the Continental Army.

Notes: In 1782, Washington returned to Worcester County on his Inaugural Tour of New England. He stayed at Samuel Taft's Tavern (now the Taft House) in Uxbridge.

Source: Vitality Magazine

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John Quincy Adams

Year: 1826

Reason for Visit: Meet with Governor Levi Lincoln Jr. (Worcester's first mayor).

Notes: Lincoln and Adams attended a cattle show.

Source: Vitality Magazine

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Teddy Roosevelt

Year: 1900

Reason for Visit: Attended Commencement at College of the Holy Cross

Notes: Also visited Fitchburg in 1902 to give a speech.

Source: Vitality Magazine

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William Taft

Year: 1914

Reason for Visit: Attended Trainman's Convention

Notes: Like Washington, Taft also stayed at Samuel Taft's Tavern in Uxbridge.

Source: Vitality Magazine

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Herbert Hoover

Year: 1932

Reason for Visit: Campaign Address

Notes: N/A

Source: Vitality Magazine

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Franklin D. Roosevelt

Year: 1934

Reason for Visit: Presidential Special train stopped at Union Station. President Roosevelt slept in the train while it was parked at Union Station.

Notes: Also visited Worcester in 1936, 1940 and 1944 on the campaign trail.

Source: Vitality Magazine

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Lyndon Johnson

Year: 1964

Reason for Visit: Delivered College of the Holy Cross Commencement Speech

Notes: John F. Kennedy was originally scheduled to make the speech, but was assasinated in November 1963. President Johnson agreed to make the speech in his place to honor President Kennedy.

Source: College of the Holy Cross

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Jimmy Carter

Year: 1977

Reason for Visit: Stayed at a private residence in Clinton during his "Getting to Know the People" campaign

Notes: Gave Speech in Clinton on the day before Saint Patrick's Day

Source: Vitality Magazine

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Bill Clinton

Year: 1999

Reason for Visit: President Clinton spoke at Memorial Service for the six Worcester firefighters that perished in the Worcester Cold Storage fire.

Notes: Clinton also came to Worcester in 1998 and spoke at Mechanics Hall.

Source: Vitality Magazine