Giorgio: Thoughts on the Midterm Senate Election
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Paul Giorgio
Who will control the United States Senate hangs in the balance, based on a few races across the country. Will Harry Reid remain Majority Leader? He will if the Democrats retain control, or will it be Mitch McConnell and the Republicans. McConnell will become Majority Leader and control the Senate’s agenda if at first he wins re-election. He is in a very tight race with Allison Lundergan Grimes. The latest polls had the Kentucky Senate race almost dead even.
It appears that the control of the Senate will rest in three very unlikely Democratic areas of the country. These are the Senate fights in Georgia where Former Senator Sam Nunn’s daughter Michelle Nunn is taking on David Perdue; New Hampshire where incumbent Senator and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is battling former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown and the reddest of red states, Kansas where longtime Senator Pat Roberts is in a death match with Independent candidate Greg Orman.
It appears that Arkansas and Louisiana are moving into the Republican column, with the two Democratic incumbents poised to loose.
More Gridlock
So what does this mean for the country-in a word-gridlock. If the Republican’s control both the House and the Senate they will likely try to pass legislation that President Obama will veto, if it gets to his desk. The Republicans will not have enough votes to override. In fact with the 60 vote rule, they won’t have enough votes to do anything.
The result of this inaction will be that the American people will grow angrier at congress, but as a consequence of the midterm election, the anger will be directed at the Republicans.
We could see two years of government shutdowns.
The other result of the Republican’s possible control of both branches of government is that the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, whoever that maybe will most certainly be elected.
Clinton woke up realizing that he had secured a second term
I am reminded of the story about Bill Clinton in the 1994 election. Clinton went to bed angry on election night because he was being blamed for the Democrats dismal failure. That 1994 election brought us Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House and all that followed.
Clinton may have gone to bed angry and upset, but he woke up happy realizing that he most likely had just won reelection in 1996.
The Party in Power loses seats.
The party in power-i.e., in the White House tends to loose seats in the second term of a president. Even Franklin Roosevelt in his second term lost 71 House seats and 6 Senate seats. Dwight Eisenhower lost 48 & 13, the biggest loss suffered by any modern U.S. President; and George Bush lost 30 & 6; even Ronald Regan lost 5 House seats and 8 Senate seats in his second term.
In fact the only President in modern times to break the trend was Bill Clinton, who picked up 5 House seats and lost 0 in the Senate in 1996.
I will go out on a limb and predict that the Senate will split 50/50 with Independent Greg Orman siding with the Democrats and Vice President Biden casting the deciding vote on how the Senate will organize. I believe that Orman will caucus with the Democrats, because he can get more from them than he can from the Republicans. A president has much power at his disposal and he can really help Kansas.
As Betty Davis exclaimed in the 1950 movie All about Eve, “Hold on its going to be a bumpy ride.”
Paul Giorgio is a longtime Democratic Party Activist who has worked on numerous campaigns. He was a Lead Advance Person for President Clinton & Vice President Gore. He was Deputy Director of Special Events for President Clinton’s first Inauguration. He has been elected a delegate to numerous Democratic National Conventions and recently served as one of President Obama’s representatives on the Platform Committee. In 2013 he was chosen as a Presidential Elector. He is the President of Pagio, Inc., publishers of Pulse Magazine, Vitality Magazine and Worcester Medicine.
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