Horowitz: President Bloomberg; Stranger Things Have Happened

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™

Rob Horowitz

In a Presidential campaign where a demagogic Reality Television Star who has never held elected office has emerged as the Republican front-runner and a 73 year old Socialist from Vermont is with-in striking range of Hillary Clinton, it would be foolish to dismiss the potential independent candidacy of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. As a page one trial balloon article in the Sunday New York Times--- based on leaks from advisors close to the former Mayor-- asserts, Bloomberg senses a big potential opening in the middle of the electorate, if Donald Trump or Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination and Bernie Sanders captures the Democratic one. Further, even-though Bloomberg views the opening for him as wider if Sanders is the nominee, given the facts that Clinton is currently unfavorably perceived by about half of general election voters and there is the possibility of additional negative developments in the ongoing email investigation, he is not at this point ruling out a run if Clinton prevails.

Bloomberg is well-positioned to exploit the opening: that the possible unpopular and/or extreme nominees of the major parties create. As a successful three term Mayor of out nation’s largest city, he built an impressive record of accomplishment, improving schools, reducing crime and generating economic development and jobs. For many voters, his emphasis on a pragmatic evidence-based problem-solving approach will serve as a potent and favorable contrast to the fact-free Donald Trump and the ideologically-driven Bernie Sanders.

As a successful businessman who could buy and sell Donald Trump before breakfast, Bloomberg would blunt, if not capture the ‘I can get things done' part of the Trump message." Unlike Trump, Bloomberg did not start his business with his Dad’s money and hands-on assistance and did not inherit $200 million from his Dad. Yet at nearly $40 billion, his net worth is 10 times the Donald’s. Bloomberg’s company, which he built from scratch, now employs more than 15,000 people.

Bloomberg is reportedly willing to commit $1 billion of his own money to the race and my guess is if he gets in, he will end up spending much more than that. He spent more than $500 million total on his three campaigns for Mayor. This will not only give him more than sufficient resources to get his message out, it will also enable him to convincing argue that he can’t be bought.

Of course, saying there is a potential path to the Presidency under some possible scenarios, doesn’t mean there is an easy path. As a social liberal who is a robust advocate of gun safety measures, one could argue that a Bloomberg candidacy is just what the Doctor ordered to make the nearly unelectable Donald Trump or the hard to elect Ted Cruz electable, as the former Mayor peals votes off the Democratic nominee. Additionally, Bloomberg is not particularly charismatic nor does he demonstrate much patience for those who he views as his intellectual inferiors-which is most of the rest of us.

Still, as the candidate of can-do, pragmatic, common sense with a track record in politics and business to back it up, Bloomberg would be formidable. The national polling conducted for him recently by veteran pollster Doug Schoen must have shown sufficient promise for the Former Mayor to greenlight the leaks that led to the New York Times article. While there is still a very good chance Bloomberg will not end up running, if the scenarios he anticipates as favorable come to fruition and he gets in, he will have a real shot.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor at University of Rhode Island.