Horowitz: The Trump Victory
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Trump won the Presidential election, despite the fact that when all the votes are counted, it looks as if he will lose the popular vote by more than 1 million votes and as much as 2 percentage points. He also won an election in which 6-in-10 voters had an unfavorable impression of him and did not believe he was qualified to serve as President, according to Exit Polls. This means more than 1-in-5 people whom cast their vote for Donald Trump neither liked him nor believed he was qualified to hold the office.
The fact that so many voters were willing to take a chance on a man they didn’t like and didn't believe had either the qualifications or temperament to hold the job, was a reflection of the discomfort with Hillary Clinton, who while more liked that Donald Trump, remained the second most unpopular nominee in the history of modern polling. But mostly it showed how strong the desire for ‘change’ was in a good portion of the electorate. By nearly 2-to-1 voters believed the country was off on the wrong track, and 69% of the voters whom believed that chose Trump. Further, more than 6-in-10 voters characterized the economy as” not good or poor” and voters with those views of our economic situation, cast more than 60% of their votes for the Businessman and former Reality Television Star. Perhaps most telling, among the nearly 40% of the electorate indicating ‘can bring change” was the most important candidate quality, Donald Trump won more than 80% of the vote.
In a truly divided electorate, the other key to Trump’s win was the performance of key demographic groups. . Trump’s victory was less a result of higher turnout among the non-college white voters, whom were the base of his candidacy and whom comprise a greater share of the electorate in the Blue States he won than in the rest of the nation, than of a garnering an even higher percentage of these voters than recent Republican nominees. For example, Trump won non-college whites by 41 points, while Romney won them by 26 points. Still, overall, because Trump did not perform as well with college educated whites as Mitt Romney or other previous Republican nominees, he ended up with roughly the same percentage of the white vote as Mitt Romney—59% But his exceptional performance with non-college whites gave him a leg up in the Blue States that put him over the top.
The even larger contributor to Trump’s win, however, was Hillary Clinton’s failure to match President Obama’s performance in the key groups that comprise the so-called Obama coalition. The anticipated Latino voter surge did not materialize and Trump ended up doing slightly better than Romney with this sub-group. More expected, Hillary Clinton did not come close to matching President Obama’s percentage of the vote or turn-out with African-Americans. And among millennials, Clinton ran 5 points behind Obama with these voters abandoning her for Gary Johnson, not Trump.
Donald Trump’s win was much more a rejection of Hillary Clinton and the political establishment, than it was an endorsement of him or his policies. On the issue of immigration, for example, 70% of voters believed that illegal immigrants working in the United States should be offered legal status, while only 25% indicated they should be deported to their home country.
I hope that he and his team recognize this fact and move quickly to take the actions required to convince people that Donald Trump will be President of all the people and to reach across the aisle and move common purpose ideas such as a big investment in infrastructure in the early days of his Presidency.
Donald Trump deserves to be congratulated for his upset win, but he has a long way to go to convince most Americans that he is ready to be President. His more modulated tone since his victory is a hopeful sign, however, it is only a beginning. Most of us, whether we voted for him or not, are rooting for him to succeed.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, elected official and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at University of Rhode Island.
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