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Horowitz: The Trump Victory

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

 

Defying the predictions of most pundits and pollsters, including this one, Donald Trump amassed a solid Electoral College majority, breaking through and winning the blue states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—usually Presidential year locks for the Democrats.

Trump won the Presidential election, despite the fact that when all the votes are counted, it looks as if he will lose the popular vote by more than 1 million votes and as much as 2 percentage points.  He also won an election in which 6-in-10 voters had an unfavorable impression of him and did not believe he was qualified to serve as President, according to Exit Polls. This means more than 1-in-5 people whom cast their vote for Donald Trump neither liked him nor believed he was qualified to hold the office.

The fact that so many voters were willing to take a chance on a man they didn’t like and didn't believe had either the qualifications or temperament to hold the job, was a reflection of the discomfort with Hillary Clinton, who while more liked that Donald Trump, remained the second most unpopular nominee in the history of modern polling. But mostly it showed how strong the desire for ‘change’ was in a good portion of the electorate.  By nearly 2-to-1 voters believed the country was off on the wrong track, and 69% of the voters whom believed that chose Trump. Further, more than 6-in-10 voters characterized the economy as” not good or poor” and voters with those views of our economic situation, cast more than 60% of their votes for the Businessman and former Reality Television Star. Perhaps most telling, among the nearly 40% of the electorate indicating ‘can bring change” was the most important candidate quality, Donald Trump won more than 80% of the vote.

In a truly divided electorate, the other key to Trump’s win was the performance of key demographic groups. . Trump’s victory was less a result of higher turnout among the non-college white voters, whom were the base of his candidacy and whom comprise a greater share of the electorate in the Blue States he won than in the rest of the nation, than of a garnering an even higher percentage of these voters than recent Republican nominees.  For example, Trump won non-college whites by 41 points, while Romney won them by 26 points. Still, overall, because Trump did not perform as well with college educated whites as Mitt Romney or other previous Republican nominees, he ended up with roughly the same percentage of the white vote as Mitt Romney—59%  But his exceptional performance with non-college whites gave him a leg up in the Blue States that put him over the top. 

The even larger contributor to Trump’s win, however, was Hillary Clinton’s failure to match President Obama’s performance in the key groups that comprise the so-called Obama coalition.  The anticipated Latino voter surge did not materialize and Trump ended up doing slightly better than Romney with this sub-group. More expected, Hillary Clinton did not come close to matching President Obama’s percentage of the vote or turn-out with African-Americans. And among millennials, Clinton ran 5 points behind Obama with these voters abandoning her for Gary Johnson, not Trump.

Donald Trump’s win was much more a rejection of Hillary Clinton and the political establishment, than it was an endorsement of him or his  policies. On the issue of immigration, for example, 70% of voters believed that illegal immigrants working in the United States should be offered legal status, while only 25% indicated they should be deported to their home country.

I hope that he and his team recognize this fact and move quickly to take the actions required to convince people that Donald Trump will be President of all the people and to reach across the aisle and move common purpose ideas such as a big investment in infrastructure in the early days of his Presidency. 

Donald Trump deserves to be congratulated for his upset win, but he has a long way to go to convince most Americans that he is ready to be President. His more modulated tone since his victory is a hopeful sign, however, it is only a beginning. Most of us, whether we voted for him or not, are rooting for him to succeed.


Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, elected official and candidates.  He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at University of Rhode Island.

 

Related Slideshow: 10 Ways Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump Are Actually Similar

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Universal Health Care 

Despite sitting on opposite sides of the aisle, Trump and Sanders essentially share the same healthcare plan. But you don’t have to take our word for it—Ted Cruz, Trump’s chief rival, said himself that Trump and Sanders “have basically the same healthcare plan," in an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity.

"Donald Trump enthusiastically supported the TARP bailout of big banks. I opposed it. He enthusiastically supported Barack Obama's stimulus plan. He thought it should have been bigger. I think it was a disaster and a waste of money. Actually, Donald not only supported both of those, but he argued that Obamacare should be expanded to make it socialized medicine for everyone,” Cruz told Hannity

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Reforming Wall Street

Both candidates have made serious noise talking about reforming Wall Street. Bernie Sanders has just about made his whole career on taking on financial kingpins, and has attracted many young fans in the process.

While the uber-capitalist Trump may seem like the candidate to take on his fellow one-percenters, his words say something different. Trump blasted hedge fund managers on CBS, saying they are “getting away with murder,” on CBS’ “Face the Nation" in 2015.

"The hedge fund guys didn't build this country. These are guys that shift paper around and they get lucky,” Trump said.

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They Don't Take Money from Wall Street

It’s not just that the candidates criticize Wall Street and big banks—plenty do that. But Trump and Sanders back up their tough talk by not attracting campaign donations from those same financial institutions.

Sure, Hillary Clinton has taken aim at the major financial mavericks during her time on the campaign trail—what self-respecting Democrat hasn’t? But a closer look at her campaign financials shows that she isn’t putting her money where her mouth is.

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Their Campaigns are Populist Movements

Neither Trump nor Sanders are what you would call a “party darling.” Both have taken aim at the lions and leaders of their own parties have been unafraid to make controversial statements regarding the political establishments.

Instead, their campaigns have been buoyed by passionate, typically politically apathetic people. People who have finally found someone they  can relate to in the political landscape and someone they feel they can trust. Despite repeated predictions of failure, regular people continue to respond to their campaigns, as both Sanders and Trump remain near or at the polls as the primaries begin.

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The Most Unusual Candidates (Ever?)

Trump and Sanders are certainly the most unusual candidates this year, as both the Republican and Democratic fields contain typical governors, senators and congressman vying for the ultimate government job. It goes one step further, however—they may be the most unusual candidates a Presidential campaign has ever seen.

Sure, Trump isn’t the first rich eccentric to take a run at the Oval Office (just google Ross Perot if you don’t believe us.) But he’s certainly the first candidate to speak about immigrants and other races as he has.

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Massive Crowds

Political candidates of any variety like going where they are wanted. They make sure that there are plenty of warm well-wishers to make campaign events see exciting and full.

Trump and Sanders, however, seem to be able to attract raucous crowds that are more akin to rock concert or playoff game than a political rally. People come in costume, dressed as their favorite candidate. Teenagers, even though they cannot cast a vote, turn out in full face paint to support their candidate.

It’s happened all over the country. Record-setting crowds packed the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon and thousands filled the DCU Center to see Trump in Worcester, Massachusetts. Everywhere these candidates go, people rush to see them.

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Lots of Small-Money Donations

Typically, leading Presidential campaigns are powered by big money donations, but that’s not the case for Trump and Sanders.

As Graphiq shows us below, Sanders and Trump are one and two, respectively in the amount of campaign donations under $200—a sure sign of grassroots support.

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Real Talk

How often do you watch and listen to a political speaking, and find yourself drifting off to sleep or reaching for your iPhone?

That rarely seems to be the case when Trump or Sanders are on the mic. You never quite know when Trump will insult an entire religion or ethnic group in one thirty-second soundbite. 

Not to be outdone, Sanders folksy and frantic style of speech has attracted attention—and plenty of jokes and memes—from all across the internet.

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 Slated for Failure

Since the first day that each candidate announced their campaign, the political intellectual and elite have told everyone that they just don’t stand a chance. Trump and Sanders are too controversial, their too radical and they are too inexperienced. How many times did political analysts or other talking heads say they would be out of the race before the first votes are ever cast?

Yet here we are, just a few days away from the first caucuses and primaries. Neither Trump nor Sanders are out of the race. Neither is on their dying breaths. They are thriving. And, as you’ll see in our next slide, they are winning

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Leading in Iowa (and New Hampshire!)

If the latest polls are to believed these massively unusual candidates—one socialist, one real estate magnate/reality tv star, both with tons of small donations, both told they never had any chance—will be making victory speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire soon.

According to CNN, Trump has an 11 point lead among Republicans and Sanders an eight point lead among Democrats in Iowa just a few days before the caucus.

And in New Hampshire, as you’ll see below,  Trump and Sanders have double digit leads as we approach the first true primary.

 
 

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