Jencunas: Hoping Joe Biden Doesn’t Run for President
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Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Brian Jencunas, GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™
Joe Biden
I like Joe Biden but hope he doesn’t run for President. As a Republican, I should feel the opposite, since Biden’s campaign will weaken Hillary and increase the GOP’s chances of taking back the White House. But as an admirer of the Vice President, I hope he avoids a futile campaign.
I like Joe Biden because he stands out as a politician. Not because of his ideas, which are the standard positions for moderate Democrats, but because of who he is. Joe Biden hasn’t changed since 1972, when, at age 29, he waged a seemingly impossible campaign against the popular incumbent Senator Cale Boggs.
As the political reporter Richard Ben Cramer wrote about that campaign, “Biden was like the people. That’s what he had to show – that he wasn’t some millionaire’s [son] or a whiz kid from Harvard, come to straighten them out. No, he’d be their voice, he’d stand up for them.” Biden won that election, and thirty-nine years later he still has the enthusiasm and attitude that makes him seem like the rarest of all things – a genuine politician.
When Biden speaks, you can hear the emotion in his voice. It’s this emotion that makes Biden seem genuine when he talks about his humble roots and the decline of the middle class, when he says things that, if other candidates said them would sound like poll-tested soundbites. No matter how many times he talks about his first wife’s death in a car wreck or his son Beau’s recent death from cancer, the emotion is so raw it feels like the first time he has opened up about the tragedy.
When Biden campaigns, it’s with a visceral, physical energy that’s so rare in an era when politicians are surrounded by an army of aides wherever they travel. During a recent appearance at a parade, he bounded from one side of the street to another, showering onlookers with handshakes, high-fives, and hugs. One potential voter even pinched his cheeks. In that one parade, he showed more passion than Hillary Clinton has shown in her entire campaign.
If Biden runs for President, he will run on the strength of his personality. He’ll mention his accomplishments, but the voters who support him won’t be driven by a bill he passed or a policy he fought for as Vice President. They’ll be drawn by the personality that made Biden a Senator and has sustained his whole career.
That won’t be enough to get him in the White House. In both of Biden’s earlier Presidential campaigns (in 1988 and 2008) he failed to win a single primary. This time, he will likely not only lose to Hillary Clinton but to Bernie Sanders. It might be different if every voter could meet the Vice President but modern campaigns are fought on television and with massive field organizations. Running for President requires message discipline, organization, and fundraising prowess – Biden lacks all three.
If I were advising Joe Biden, I’d suggest he skip Iowa and New Hampshire entirely and focus all his resources on South Carolina. If Sanders wins one, or both, of the first two states, Biden could pick up establishment Democrats who fear Clinton is unelectable but fear Sanders’ extremism. Combined with wedging away Clinton’s African-American support, a key voting bloc in the mostly Republican state, Biden could pull off a narrow win in South Carolina. Afterward, the money could pour in as Democratic grandees flee Clinton and fear Sanders.
While possible, this strategy is the political equivalent of drawing an inside straight in poker. It’s far more likely that Biden’s gaffes, the downside of his hyperactive authenticity, consume most of his media coverage and his campaign fails to raise enough money to compete with Clinton on television. Meaningful distinctions with Clinton will be hard for Biden, a moderate himself. He’ll likely drop out after a string of losses, and if Clinton loses in the general, he will be blamed for weakening her candidacy.
To quote Richard Ben Cramer again, “Imagination was the essence of his method, the first and most crucial step: Joe got the picture in his head, like he was already there and he knew how it was going to be. Joe was continually creating himself. This was how he made things happen.”
Imagination and force of personality can only go so far. They can make a young man a Senator, especially in a small state like Delaware where voters can be wooed in small settlings. But becoming Presidency requires much more, and Joe Biden doesn’t have the time or the inclination to assemble a winning campaign.
Brian Jencunas works as a communications and media consultant.
Related Slideshow: The 2016 President Candidates Ranked by Absurdity
InsideGov ranked the levels of absurdity for each candidate by these four criteria:
- A consistently low 2015 polling average: consistently low poll numbers make campaigns more superfluous, and thus, more absurd
- Extreme ideologies: candidates with extreme views—whether way to the left or way to the right—tend to be less viable, and thus, more ridiculous
- Little-to-no years of elected office or active-duty military experience: inexperienced and unproven, these candidates are more prone to absurdity
- Multiple attempts at the presidency: the more attempts, the less serious the candidate becomes
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#21
Candidate: Scott Walker
Absurdity Index: 37.1 (very low)
What InsideGov said:
He might be the most boring candidate in the race, but he’s also the least ridiculous. The Governor of Wisconsin has 22 years of elected experience and consistently solid polling numbers for 2016.
While he leans more conservative than average, he takes few truly extreme positions. He’s the most reasonable candidate in the entire field, by InsideGov’s metrics.
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#20
Candidate: Martin O'Malley
Absurdity Index: 39.4
What InsideGov said:
By InsideGov’s calculations, the former Governor of Maryland is the most moderate Democrat in the field, and among the five most moderate candidates overall.
Even if he never gains traction against the mighty Clinton machine, we can expect O’Malley to add a measured, level-headed perspective to the Democratic primaries.
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#19
Candidate: Chris Christie
Absurdity Index: 39.7
What InsideGov said:
While the Governor of New Jersey gets a bad rap for his bluster and blunt statements, the data suggests he’s one of the more reasonable candidates, on the whole. He’s moderate across almost every issue, and he's still alive in the polls.
“Bridgegate” might ultimately doom him, but his decision not to run for president in 2012 was classic, sensible Christie.
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#18
Candidate: Hillary Clinton
Absurdity Index: 40.6
What InsideGov said:
Clinton scores a few absurdity points across several categories: she’s only served eight years of elected office*, has run for president before, and is more liberal than all but one competitor. Still, her historically dominant position in the polls (nearly 50 points above her nearest challenger) means we have to take the former New York Senator seriously. In the position she’s in, it would be ridiculous for hernot to run.
*For our purposes, her terms as First Lady and Secretary of State do not count toward her total, because she was not elected to those positions.
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#17
Candidate: Jeb Bush
Absurdity Index: 40.8
What InsideGov said:
Some might say that three Bushes in three decades is absurd, but by our numbers, Jeb Bush is among the most sensible of the candidates. He consistently polls at the top of the GOP field, holds more moderate positions than most of his opponents and seems to have waited for the perfect time to run.
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#16
Candidate: Lincoln Chafee
Absurdity Index: 43.0
What InsideGov said:
The recent Democratic Party-convert holds moderate views and boasts 24 years of elected experience—enough to make him a logical candidate for the 2016 race. Only his extremely low polling numbers, which suggest that his candidacy will be irrelevant, bump him a few spots up this list.
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#15
Candidate: Bernie Sanders
Absurdity Index: 43.5
What InsideGov said:
The most liberal candidate in the field, Bernie Sanders will likely add a far-left voice to the Democratic primaries. That said, his decent polling numbers and 34 years of elected experience suggest he deserves to be in the conversation, regardless of his ideology.
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#14
Candidate: Marco Rubio
Absurdity Index: 45.2
What InsideGov said:
The Tea Party star turned respected Florida Senator boasts 15 years of experience and a solid polling average. Rubio’s sole weakness might be his strong conservative streak, which will make him less palatable in the general election. Only Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz hold viewpoints further to the right.
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#13
Candidate: Lindsey Graham
Absurdity Index: 45.8
What InsideGov said:
The South Carolina Senator has all the experience you’d ever want in a president: 22 years of elected service, another dozen of active-duty military service. Still, Graham’s abysmal polling numbers suggest he has no business in an already crowded field.
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#12
Candidate: Jim Webb
Absurdity Index: 45.8
What InsideGov said:
Similar to Graham, Jim Webb brings a combination of government and military service to the table, an attractive résumé that would seem to appeal to liberal and conservative voters alike. And while he doesn’t have quite as much total experience as Graham, Webb’s moderate ideology scores would make him a compelling general election contender. That said, Webb is so far behind Clinton in the polls that his candidacy likely won't last.
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#11
Candidate: Rick Perry
Absurdity Index: 47.0
What InsideGov said:
Though he leans more conservative than the average GOP candidate, Rick Perry’s 35 years of elected experience—including 15 as the Governor of Texas—make Perry an immediate contender. He’ll just need to escape the shadow of his failed 2012 run, where debate gaffes unraveled an otherwise promising campaign.
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#10
Candidate: John Kasich
Absurdity Index: 47.3
What InsideGov said:
The Governor of Ohio has over two decades of experience and a balanced mix of viewpoints that could appeal to national voters. For now, only a low polling average brings Kasich down. Given that the governor hasn’t officially announced his candidacy, Kasich could quickly find himself moving down the Absurdity Index and into a short list of contenders.
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#9
Candidate: Rand Paul
Absurdity Index: 48.8
What InsideGov said:
While he’s relatively new to the game (particularly compared to his father, Ron Paul), Paul’s Libertarian leanings will likely help the Kentucky Senator win over a small subset of American voters. His bigger problem will be garnering support from traditional Democrats or Republicans—each of which will have fundamental disagreements with his platform.
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#8
Candidate: George Pataki
Absurdity Index: 49.8
What InsideGov said:
The former Governor of New York is, by InsideGov’s count, the last of the semi-viable 2016 candidates. His polling is currently in the gutter, but his moderate views, 25 years of experience and record as a GOP governor in a liberal state all contribute to a well-rounded presidential candidate. He just needs voters to pay attention.
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#7
Candidate: Mike Huckabee
Absurdity Index: 52.2
What InsideGov said:
Part pastor, part politician and part Fox News personality, Mike Huckabee has done a little bit of everything—past positions that will help him appeal to a loyal base of Evangelical voters.
For mainstream voters, however, Huckabee’s revolving door of professions, overemphasis on religious values and lack of foreign policy bonafides make him unfit for office.
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#6
Candidate: Ben Carson
Absurdity Index: 55.4
What InsideGov said:
Famous for being the first surgeon to successfully separate twins conjoined at the head, Ben Carson is a brilliant physician, but has never been a politician. While some might be refreshed by a candidate so removed from Washington, history tells us that these candidates are the most likely to be loose canons, with offhand comments that trained politicians are smart enough to avoid. For these reasons, Carson is likely to wind up more sideshow than serious contender.
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#5
Candidate: Ted Cruz
Absurdity Index: 59.9
What InsideGov said:
New to politics and more conservative than the entire field, Cruz easily ranks among 2016’s most absurd candidates. He’ll likely provide some entertainment at debates and in interviews, but there’s no way he’ll make it past New Hampshire. Only a consistent bloc of Tea Party support in the polls prevents him from finishing in the top four.
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#4
Candidate: Bobby Jindal
Absurdity Index: 66.5
What InsideGov said:
Both highly conservative and unappealing to voters, the Governor of Louisiana has seen a sharp decline in support since he bombed a 2009 State of the Union response. The data says that neither voters nor television networks will take his bid very seriously; he may be among the first to drop out.
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#3
Candidate: Rick Santorum
Absurdity Index: 67.2
What InsideGov said:
While Santorum’s years of elected experience are about average (16), his deeply conservative views and consistently low poll numbers make him a superfluous addition to the race.
The former Pennsylvania Senator might be hoping that his deep 2012 run will help validate his bonafides as a candidate, but GOP voters already seem weary of the candidate. If anything, his presidential election history will be more of a curse than a blessing.
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#2
Candidate: Carly Fiorina
Absurdity Index: 75.4
What InsideGov said:
Fiorina’s low polling numbers and zero years of elected experience work against the businesswoman, who has been trying to transition to politics for the last decade. She deserves praise for her quick rise to senior vice president at AT&T, but her tenure at HP is more ominous.
While serving as HP’s CEO, the company underperformed in the stock market, took on billions in debt, laid off 30,000 workers and saw employee satisfaction plummet. The company’s board eventually forced her to resign. Add to that a failed Senate bid in 2010, and Fiorina has gone many years without a signature victory. It’s unlikely that the 2016 election will mean anything different for the aspiring politician.
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#1
Candidate: Donald Trump
Absurdity Index: 191.2
What InsideGov said:
When it comes to absurdity, Trump breaks the scale. Yes, his recent poll numbers aren’t terrible, but all candidates receive bumps after officially announcing their campaigns. Instead, it’s Trump’s wacky policy positions, decades of pretend presidential runs and zero years of elected experience that earn Trump the honor of 2016’s most absurd candidate.
Trump is more likely than anyone on this list to make headlines, yet less likely than the entire field to actually become president. He’s more than twice as ridiculous as the next-most absurd candidate. When the 2016 race is all over, don’t say Trump didn’t win anything. Congratulations, Donald.
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