5 Things That Will Decide the MA Senate Race

Monday, November 05, 2012

Adam Joseph Drici, GoLocalWorcester Contributor

GoLocalWorcester breaks down the five key factors that will determine who comes out on top in the highly-contested Massachusetts Senate race between Democratic hopeful Elizabeth Warren and Republican Senator Scott Brown.

Presidential Race

While a victory for President Barack Obama in Massachusetts is a given at this point, the margin of victory may play a crucial role in the state's Senate race. A survey by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) released Friday found Obama leading former Governor Mitt Romney by 15 points, 57 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters. The Republican had narrowed the gap between himself and the President to 14 points, 55-41, in an October poll from PPP following the first presidential debate, down from 18 points in September.

Any gains by Romney are likely to accrue to Brown as well, and every Republican presidential vote the Senator pulls in could potentially decrease the number of Obama supporters he needs to coax into splitting their ticket.

At the same time, the presidential election year will give Warren a boost that Democrat Martha Coakley lacked in the 2010 special election. Obama's leadership during Hurricane Sandy last week helped the President gain some ground nationally, and Warren and her fellow Democratic Senate candidates stand to reap the benefits of his improved standing.

Party vs. Person

The Warren campaign has increasingly played up the national stakes of the Bay State Senate race, while the Brown camp has tried to keep voters focused on the personal and away from partisan politics. The Republican's "People Over Party" statewide bus tour and his "Democrats for Brown" coalition have both served to distance him from the Red vs. Blue fights raging elsewhere in the country and to make voters feel comfortable casting their ballot for him even if they back Obama at the top of the ticket.

For her part, Warren has warned that a victory for Brown could mean a Republican majority in the Senate, which could have far-reaching effects from the Supreme Court down. The threat may be working. PPP's October poll found that 52 percent of likely Massachusetts voters would rather see the Democrats remain in control of the upper house of Congress, compared to 35 percent who would prefer a Republican-controlled Senate, with 12 percent undecided.

Gender Gap

Women's issues were propelled to the forefront of the contest between Brown and Warren, and both candidates have worked hard to distinguish themselves as the pro-women candidate, but the gender gap remained wide in a survey released Sunday by the Western New England University Polling Institute, which found Warren leading Brown by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Among the 535 likely voters, 60 percent of women favored Warren, compared to 36 percent who favored Brown. Brown enjoyed a 56 percent to 39 percent advantage over his opponent among male voters. The Republican has pushed out a number of television ads directed at women voters in recent weeks, including one featuring women's advocate Laurie Myers touting Brown's voting record, but whether they will be enough to increase his support among the key demographic will become clear on Tuesday.

Independent Voters

Even though Democrats enjoy a roughly three to one advantage over Republicans in the Commonwealth, unenrolled or independent voters account for more than half of all registered voters in Massachusetts. At nearly 2.2 million, independents outnumber registered Democrats and Republicans combined, and they will play a critical role in the Senate race regardless of who comes out on top.

The Western New England University poll found Brown leading Warren among the group by a sizable margin of 33 points, 64 percent to 31 percent. However, pollsters said that lead would not be enough to overcome the Democrats' numbers advantage by itself. In PPP's survey, Brown's advantage with independents was 21 points, 59 percent to 38 percent. In comparison, the PPP's final poll for the 2010 special election found Brown beating Coakley by 32 points, 64 percent to 32 percent, among independents.

Ground Game

The Massachusetts Republican Party had only four field offices open during the campaign season leading up to Brown's 2010 victory over Coakley. For the 2012 race, that number has been upped to 10, substantially increasing the state GOP's presence on the ground throughout the Commonwealth. The state Democratic Party, on the other hand, lists a total of 52 offices on its website.

Both Brown and Warren have been crisscrossing the state in recent days, holding rallies with high-profile party members and supporters to energize supporters and motivate them to get to the polls on Tuesday.

Robert Boatright, an associate professor of Political Science at Clark University, said the Democratic ground game in the Bay State has traditionally been worth a few points when kicked into gear. With roughly three times more registered voters to draw from as its Republican counterpart, the well-oiled Democratic machine will likely prove an advantage for Warren.

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