Warren Wins MA Senate Race
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
Warren, a law school professor at Harvard, will be the first woman to represent the Commonwealth in the Senate.
The race between Brown and Warren was the most expensive in Massachusetts history, with the candidates spending a combined $68 million by mid-October.
The contest was also notable for the "People's Pledge" the two candiadtes signed early this year, which prohibited spending by third-party groups on television, radio, print and web ads that supported or opposed either candidate.
Brown took office after defeating Democrat Martha Coakley in a 2010 special election following Kennedy's death, but he faced more of an uphill battle in this time around, running as a Republican in a heavily-Democratic state in a presidential election year.
Warren's momentum began to pick up in early September following her primetime address at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, and she delivered strong performances in her debates with Brown, holding her own even as attacks from both sides increased in number and intensity.
The brains behind the recently-established Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Warren was able to overcome the questions raised about her claims of Native American heritage and the negative attacks on her legal career launched by the opposition through her message emphasizing a level playing field, paying one's fair share and her strong stance on women's issues.
Brown focused on his bipartisanship and independence throughout the campaign, but it appeared not to be enough to combat Warren's repeated attempts to link him with the national Republican Party and use the threat of a GOP-controlled Senate to sway voters to the Democrat's side.
Hurricane Sandy swept into Massachusetts just a week before Election Day and resulted in the fourth and final Senate debate's cancellation, a decision Brown may regret having initiated in the wake of the election results.
Experts React
Donald Brand, professor and chair of the Political Science department at Holy Cross:
"In some ways it's not that dramatic a surprise.
"Brown was able to pick up the seat under pretty unusual circumstances, and to some degree against a weaker opponent, at a time when there was a huge outcry in the country about Obamacare. To hold onto that seat in a presidential election year when clearly Massachusetts was going to go in the Obama column was a very uphill struggle for him all along."
Srini Sitaraman, associate professor of Political Science at Clark University:
"Historic win for Senator-elect Warren. Absolutely stunning! Although I caught the drift early on, I am still surprised. Huge win for the citizens of Massachusetts and this clearly suggests that the citizen mood has shifted and they clearly expect Washington to move fast on Jobs, Economy, Middle-Class growth, taxes, and of course addressing the fiscal cliff.
"In an another win, you will also notice that this is a victory for women all across the country as indicated by the MO and IN Senate race. Warren's victory and the President's re-election suggests that he will have a mandate to fight for middle-class and continue the path towards recovery and regrowth. But we are still looking at a divided government with the house clearly in the control of the opposition. So, the President and the Senate has to work with the recalcitrant House to get things done. If that tone and agenda is not set very soon, it will be a tough four years."
Rob Eno, editor of RedMassGroup and GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™:
"Watching Scott Brown's concession speech there is one word that comes to mind. That is class.
"Scott Brown remains, even in defeat, a class act. He has a great future in our party."
Tom Finneran, former Massachusetts Speaker of the House and GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™:
"Elizabeth Warren's win tonight is a 'restoration' of the status quo ante pre-Scott Brown. It is probably a setback for the 'bipartisanship' which voters say they would like to see. Senator Warren may prove to be more of a centrist than many expect, but the issues which she emphasized suggest more of a party platform perspective.
"Watch her words and actions regarding the fiscal cliff and the annual budgets. Can she support spending cuts--beyond the Pentagon's budget--or will she focus her efforts on taxes/revenues? Tax increases on 'the rich' do not solve the budget problem. And many of the budget cuts would have negative effects on Massachusetts companies. In sum, she is now in the land of lousy choices. A Harvard classroom will be a delightful memory for the Senator compared to the contentious road ahead."
Robert Boatright, associate professor of Political Science at Clark University:
"As to the race, we in Massachusetts should really appreciate the sort of campaign we got. Yes, it was often negative, but the ban on outside advertising held until the end, so there is no question that Warren won the race based on the strength of her campaign. Anyone watching Massachusetts television got bombarded with Super PAC ads from New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Rhode Island; the voters in those races did not get to know the candidates nearly as well as we got to know Warren and Brown. Both candidates deserve credit for that.
"Warren also won because of the grassroots effort. There hasn’t been any other campaign in Massachusetts in at least the past decade that has had such systematic mobilization of voters. Warren was also a smart candidate – she got better as the race went on, and she knew when to defer to local politicians, something that I think was crucial to winning in places like Worcester. Brown never really was able to organize the forces that got him elected in 2010, and I think the decision to go so negative so early harmed the “nice guy” image he had cultivated.
"What does this mean? There’s been some talk already about Warren’s stature within the Democratic Party. She clearly will enter the Senate as the sort of superstar Senator that Hillary Clinton was. I think she has serious enough policy differences with many mainstream Democrats, and she’ll have to work to figure out how to get the rest of the party behind her should she wish to take a leadership role. You have to remember, however, that Hillary spent much of her first term in the Senate attending to constituency issues, and Warren would be smart to do the same.
"The wild card here – I think Scott Brown may have harmed his standing with independents in this campaign, but there still is no other Republican in Massachusetts who has shown he can win statewide. There’s a governor’s race in a couple of years. More interestingly, however, it has been rumored that John Kerry might succeed Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. If that’s the case, we’ll have another Senate election very soon, and Brown would be a formidable candidate. That race would be interesting, as would the possibility of Brown and Warren – two people who clearly dislike each other greatly – serving together in the Senate!"
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