Michael Graham: Will 2014 Be the GOP Year in MA?

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Monday, November 04, 2013

Michael Graham, Guest MINDSETTER™

It's a perfect political storm: President Obama's popularity is down, voters are angry over his unpopular health care law, and Republicans are energized and excited about voting. Just the conditions a minority party like the Massachusetts GOP needs to pick up a governorship and send a couple of Republicans to Congress.

Only one problem. I'm not writing about 2014. I'm writing about 2010. And while the Republican tide swept over nearly the entire country, it stopped dead at the border of Massachusetts.
Voters re-elected Gov. Patrick and sent every member of Congress back to DC. The Republican candidate for state auditor--and actual auditor--lost to a woman with zero experience who had been caught cheating on her taxes just weeks before the election.

Will 2014 be different?

Massachusetts Republicans say "yes," but when you ask for specific numbers or trends, the response tends to be a general mumbling and shifting of feet.
Well, I’ve looked at the numbers and they’re not bad. They’re awful.

Out of 4.3 million registered voters in Massachusetts, about 480,000 are Republicans. Just over 1 in 10. On the other hand, there are 1.6 million registered Democrats.
Put another way, if every single Republican in the state shows up and votes for Charlie Baker a year from now, and two out of three Democrats stay home to watch the "West Wing" marathon on MSNBC, the election would be a tie.

Republican Party activists like chairwoman Kirsten Hughes point out that the largest group of voters aren’t members of either party. There are 2.2 million are “unenrolled” voters in Massachusetts and they could vote GOP any time they wanted.

Unfortunately, they rarely do.

“To be a Republican in Massachusetts, you need a lot of perseverance, intestinal fortitude, and optimism,” former GOP state senator and likely congressional candidate Rich Tisei told the Boston Globe earlier this year. “Every now and again, we do have a good election cycle. It’s been a while since we have.”

Talk about understatement…

Since the year 2000, there have been 99 statewide (governor, attorney general, etc) and federal (Congress and POTUS) elections in Massachusetts. How many did the Republicans win?
Three. The Massachusetts GOP is 3-for-99 this century. Mitt Romney and Kerry Healy in 2002, and Scott Brown in the special election of 2010.
The good news is that it's likely the GOP can't sink any lower. 

The bad news is that there is no indication that the party will do any better. 

The one place where the GOP has shown some growth is in the state House of Representatives, where exceptional candidates like Ryan Fattman, Shaunna O'Connell and Leah Cole have been able to unseat Democrat incumbents or win overwhelmingly Democratic districts. 

It's possible that 2014 could see another GOP growth spurt in the lower chamber of the legislature--but what Republicans want is a big win. Governor Charlie Baker, or a Republican member of Congress.
What are the odds? Not great, apparently.

Former statewide officer holder and Congressional candidate Joe Malone has announced he's leaving the party for dead. He's changed his registration to unenrolled and is backing an independent candidate, venture capitalist Jeff McCormick, for governor.

GOP consultant Todd Domke has given up the party, too. “If we’re going to have real competition for office in this state, we probably need more independent candidates," Domke has said.
If they get any traction for McCormick, he could play the role Tim Cahill did in 2010, dividing the anti-Democratic vote and all but ensuring a GOP defeat.

Scott Brown Factor...Not

And what about the Mass GOP’s super-star, Scott Brown?

He’s just started a political action committee…in New Hampshire.

In other words, if the GOP's fortunes are on the upswing, potential candidates seem unaware of the fact. Republicans are pleased that Charlie Baker has clear sailing to the GOP nomination for governor, while Democrats like Treasurer Steve Grossman and Attorney General Martha Coakley have to fight for their place on the ticket in a primary.

But how is the fact that the state GOP doesn't have a single other credible candidate for governor good news? 

Will a bloody primary leave the Democratic nominee battered and their party divided? Will that create an opportunity for a smart, likeable candidate like Baker to win a Scott-Brown-style upset? The odds aren’t great, but sure--it could happen.

Let’s say that it does, how will that have improved the fortunes of the Massachusetts GOP? It will still be a tiny, minority party where every election win is a "stunning upset," where Democrats control the entire Congressional delegation and 90 percent of state government.

Until Massachusetts Republicans invest time and money changing the perception of the party’s brand itself, until they can convince, say, 2 in 10 registered voters to publicly call themselves "Republicans," the fortunes of the party in 2014 are about the same as they were in 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, etc, etc.

Lousy.

 

 

Listen to Michael Graham, Noon-3pm on AM 830 WCRN and at www.MichaelGraham.com

 

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