New N.H. Democratic Primary Poll Calls Race Too Close to Call

Monday, February 03, 2020

GoLocalWorcester Political Team

U.S.Senator Bernie Sanders campaign photo

With only eight days to go, the New Hampshire Democratic primary is wide open, with a close race for the lead and a large share of likely voters who say they could still change their mind, according to a new poll released on Monday.

On Monday, Iowa voters go to the Democratic caucuses.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is at the head of the field with likely Democratic primary voters, with the support of 23 percent. But Sanders – who won the 2016 New Hampshire primary by 22 points – is now just one point ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden, who has the support of 22 percent of likely voters, and just four points ahead of U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has 19 percent. With a margin of error of plus or minus 6.4 percent, the race is too close to call.

“This is a true toss-up race. There are three candidates within the margin of error and when you count the persuadable voters for the other candidates, there is a high degree of instability in this race with just over a week to go. New Hampshire primaries are reputed for going down to the wire and it looks like Granite State Democrats are ready to live up to their reputation,” said Joshua Dyck, director of the Center for Public Opinion and associate professor of political science.

The only other candidate registering double-digit support is Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who had 12 percent support among likely voters in the nonpartisan poll, which was independently funded and conducted by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren

Tied for fifth place are U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer, with 6 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (5 percent), Andrew Yang (2 percent) and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (1 percent) and 4 percent undecided. Detailed poll results – including how the candidates fare with likely voters by age and ideology, along with topline and methodology – are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

Although the primary is next week, 39 percent of likely voters polled said they could change their mind about their choice for a presidential candidate. Sanders’ support appears the most stable, with 88 percent of respondents who favor him saying they will definitely vote for him and only 12 percent who reported they might change their mind. Among Biden supporters, 68 percent said their vote is definite and 32 percent said they could change their mind and with Warren, 62 percent of supporters are definite about their vote and 38 percent said they could choose another candidate. Among other candidates, support among those polled is less definite: 71 percent of Buttigieg voters said they could change their mind, followed by 64 percent among Steyer supporters and 58 percent among Klobuchar’s. These findings and the results due today from the Iowa caucuses suggest there could be large shifts in support leading up to the New Hampshire primary.

The poll also asked likely first-in-the-nation primary voters which of the two national frontrunners – Sanders and Biden – is more likely to beat President Donald Trump in the November general election. Forty-two percent said Biden and 31 percent chose Sanders, with 27 percent saying they will fare about the same. However, when asked which candidate they agree with more on policy,