NEW: Poll Shows Huge Lead for Coakley in MA Governor’s Race

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

GoLocalWorcester Politics Team

With a week remaining until the Democratic primary in Massachusetts, a new poll by UMass Lowell/7News shows that gubernatorial hopeful Martha Coakley has a commanding lead over all other candidates.

The poll shows that Coakley currently has a 32-point lead (52-percent to 20-percent) of likely Democratic primary voters over Steve Grossman. Additionally, Coakley holds an even greater margin over Donald Berwick, who only has 9-percent of the vote.

“Coakley is now a prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Her support is still somewhat soft, but Steve Grossman’s campaign has simply not captured the attention of a largely unengaged Democratic primary electorate,” said Prof. Joshua Dyck, co-director of the Center for Public Opinion, who wrote and analyzed the poll, which is the first in a new partnership between UMass Lowell and 7News.

The poll was conducted from August 25th to August 31st for the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and 7News by surveying 1,624 Massachusetts registered voters and 685 likely Massachusetts Democratic Primary voters. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.55-percent.

November Election

In a potential matchup in the November election, Coakley leads her Republican competition Charlie Baker (41-percent to 32-percent) and holds a commanding lead over independent candidate Jeff McCormick (seven-percent) and United Independent candidate Evan Falchuk (one-percent). The survey was among Massachusetts registered voters and the margin for error is 2.94-percent.

If Steve Grossman is the Democratic candidate, then he faces a battle against Baker. The poll shows Baker leading 33-percent to 31-percent, with the other two candidates behind by double digits.

“One significant wild card in the general election is the effect of what promises to be an onslaught of super PAC ads. While both sides may be aided by such outside spending, the conservative PACs are likely to attack Martha Coakley. Negative ads often drive candidates’ unfavorability up. If Coakley’s support is at all soft, it could bring her numbers down and in a close race, affect the outcome of the election,” said Frank Talty, co-director of the Center for Public Opinion and assistant dean of UMass Lowell’s College of Fine Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences.

Casino Gambling

The new poll also looked at voters’ views on the referendum on the November ballot asking whether the Commonwealth should repeal the 2011 law establishing casino gaming. Fifty-nine-percent of registered voters polled said they oppose repealing the measure while 36-percent support it. Only five-percent were undecided.

“Casino gambling will likely be staying for good in the Commonwealth,” said Dyck. “With the campaign just ready to ramp up, the well-financed ‘no’ side is likely to vastly outspend proponents of the repeal, further decreasing the odds of a successful repeal effort.”

Other Poll Results

In the race for the nomination for lieutenant governor, the poll found that with just seven days to go before the primary, a large group of likely Democratic primary voters – 57 percent – are undecided about which candidate they will choose. Steve Kerrigan leads among those who have decided, with 24 percent to 10 percent each for Leland Cheung and Mike Lake.
Despite her lead over other Democratic candidates in the poll, fewer than half (48 percent) of likely Democratic primary voters said they believe Coakley will be the next governor. Twenty percent felt Baker would win while another 18 percent are uncertain about who will succeed Deval Patrick.
Among those polled who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary, 68 percent said they have a favorable view of Coakley and 19 percent said they have an unfavorable view, for a net favorability of 49. Baker has a net favorability rating among the likely Democratic primary voters of 18, with 42 percent viewing him favorably and 24 percent unfavorably.
Among Democrats seeking to replace Coakley as attorney general, former state legislator Warren Tolman has a narrow lead over Assistant Attorney General Maura Healey, 39 percent to 34 percent, with 27 percent of likely Democratic primary voters undecided.
Of the independent candidates for governor, McCormick has the greatest support among registered voters who identify with a particular political party with 6 percent support among both Democrats and Republicans polled.
McCormick and fellow independent Falchuk have the combined support of 14 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds polled (13 percent for McCormick and 1 percent for Falchuk), a sign that young voters are looking for more options in the political process, according to Dyck.
Sixty percent of likely Democratic primary voters polled said they trust state government “only some of the time” or “never,” compared to 39 percent who said they “always” or “most of the time” trust Beacon Hill.
Forty-six percent of likely primary Democratic voters would prefer that the majority of the legislature and governor come from different political parties while 43 percent think it is better when a single party has control over both the executive and legislative branches.