Poll Shows Scott Brown Viewed “Favorably” For 2014 Gov. Run
Friday, May 10, 2013
“The Massachusetts Governor’s race is really up in the air,” Debnam said. “Other than Scott Brown none of the candidates are particularly well known, so it’s hard to get much of an early read on it.”
The numbers show that Dems have only a slight lead against potential contenders, unless Brown enters the race. Fifty-three percent see Brown “favorably” according to the poll.
Methodology
Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,539 Massachusetts voters on May 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.5 percent. The poll was independently funded and the polling organization said that all surveys were conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Those polled were asked their opinion on job performance and general favorable or unfavorable opinion of various politicians including Brown, Joe Avellone, Don Berwick, Mike Capuano, Mo Cowan, William Galvin, Steve Grossman, Carmen Ortiz, and others.
Questions also involved hypothetical match-ups between candidates.
Of the Mass. residents polled, 55 percent were female, 45 percent male. The majority were within the ages of 46 to 65 (46 percent), and 30 to 45 (24 percent).
The Numbers
Undecided voters accounted for at least 17 percent and as much as 48 percent of voters in 21 potential candidate match-ups, according to the poll.
But despite this uncertain look, Public Policy Polling said that “the general picture is no surprise in this deep blue state.” The Democratic edge isn’t surprising in the Bay State, but Scott Brown’s potential to shake up the race, could be.
In the poll’s match-ups, over half saw Brown favorably and 35 percent saw him unfavorably. According to the outcome, he would earn 43-49 percent of the vote, with leads of four to 18 points against the seven Democrats the polling agency tested.
The polling group said that Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin could be Democrats’ best offering, due to name recognition and favorability. Thirty-seven percent said they see him positively and 15 percent negatively. According to their figures, Galvin is the best-known Democrat in the poll, with only 49 percent unsure of their feelings toward him. Brown’s uncertainty percent was only 11 percent.
Public Policy Poling also looked at two other potential Republican candidates – 2010 gubernatorial nominee Charlie Baker and failed 2012 congressional and 2010 Lt. Gov. candidate Richard Tisei.
What Are the Odds?
Brown’s statement after bowing out of the current Massachusetts special election left many speculating about a potential run for governor in 2014. The possibility is something that Clark professor of Political Science, Srini Sitaraman said he sees likely.
“This surely suggests that Scott Brown is going to make a run for the Governor’s office in 2014,” he said.
Frequent GoLocal commentator, political expert from The Cook Political Report, Jennifer Duffy, agreed with her Tweet following Brown’s decision to bow out: “Brown's decision deprives us of a great Senate race, but may give us a great Governor's race instead.”
While the former MA senator declined another run for US Senate, he may be up for the governor’s seat.
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