Rob Horowitz: Climate Change Put on the Back-Burner
Monday, February 13, 2012
If you are counting on American media to let you know, it is very possible to miss the fact that the annual UN Summit on Climate Change kicked-off last week in Durban, South Africa. Unlike previous Summits such as the ones held in Copenhagen in 2009 and Kyoto in 1997--which both received extensive media coverage in the United State--this 194 nation gathering is likely to escape notice by all but the most informed and interested observers.
The absence of coverage reflects in large measure that, at least for the moment, the issue of climate change has been put on the back-burner. The Obama Administration is downplaying the prospect of any significant progress occurring --and not sending any senior level official to the Summit. In contrast, President Obama famously parachuted into Copenhagen at the last minute and salvaged a face-saving agreement through negotiations with China that all nations would agree to a goal of limiting the rise in temperature to 2% celsius—the then scientific consensus limit of increase to prevent the worst impacts of climate change from occurring. However, this agreement did not include any binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases, relying on voluntary compliance.
In 2012, the Kyoto protocol, which bound nations in the developed word, to lower greenhouse gas emissions by 5% below their 1990 levels expires. Since Kyoto exempted developing nations such as Chin--now the world’s largest greenhouse emitter--from the targets and as a result the United States refused to ratify it, it has been relatively ineffectual. The amount of greenhouse gases emitted worldwide continues to rise precipitously.
The hope in Copenhagen was that a strong agreement that included the developing nations could be achieved. Unfortunately, the developing nations refused to sign-on to binding targets. Nations such as China and India argue that the climate change problem was created by Western nations and that these nations must bear most of the cost of the solution. On the other hand, given that China and India are now such large producers of greenhouse gases, the problem can not be solved without them. And even the European Union, which has been the most bullish on reducing greenhouse gases and made the most progress, is now resisting signing any new agreement that does not have meaningful commitments from the developing nations
Of course, the world’s focus remains on the economy with particular attention to whether the European Union can solve its credit, debt and banking problems which currently threaten economic recovery in the United States and elsewhere. This leaves little political room for addressing the still important and difficult problem on climate change.
As a result, even-though the weather effects of climate change are becoming more costly and more apparent and the predictive models of warming are turning out to be deadly accurate and confirmed by previous climate skeptics, the kind of coordinated world action needed to solve the problem remains elusive.
A solution will require strong and persistent United States leadership. That is why the positions of so many of the Republican Presidential candidates are so disturbing. They not only do not support any meaningful action; they also deny the science. And they are reflecting the views of a majority of Republican primary voters.
To bring about the sustained kind of leadership that is needed to solve the climate crisis, requires bi-partisan support. This will take a real change on the Republican side and the willingness of Democrats to once again advance the issue and keep it front and center on the public agenda.
This can be accomplished in the short-term by pushing the more consensual components of the steps needed to limit climate change such as a more robust approach to developing alternative energy, which has the big added advantage of making us less dependent on foreign oil, and implementing widespread energy efficiency and conservation measures, which save tax dollars and relieve pressure on squeezed family budgets, along with creating new jobs.
Over the long-term, creative American diplomacy and hard-headed bargaining, particularly with China and India, will be needed to reach a solution This kind of sweeping agreement will likely await a full economic recovery. In the meantime, we must take the steps we can to pave the way for ensuring that we leave our children a truly livable world.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates.
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