Rob Horowitz: The Moderates: Still Holding the White House Keys
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Even in today’s sharply polarized and ideologically tinged politics, winning self-identified moderates remains a key to winning Presidential elections. As the speculation about and maneuvering of potential Presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle heats up, a poll focusing on moderates, recently released by Third Way, provides an interesting snap-shot.
While important to both parties, moderates -- whom in recent Presidential electionshave strongly favored the Democratic candidate—are a much more central part of any winning Democratic coalition. This is because there are about twice as many self-identified conservatives as liberals in the electorate. In this recent poll, 42% of respondents identify as conservatives; 21% identify as liberals. Conservatives have significantly outnumbered liberals in the electorate over the past 40 years or so. Simply put, since there are far fewer liberals than conservatives Democrats must win a higher percentage of moderates than Republicans must to prevail.
The more than 1-out-of-3 voters who identify as moderates in this poll, a percentage that is somewhat less than in most Presidential elections where moderates tend to slightly outnumber conservatives, break down as follows on party identification: 40% Democrat; 21% Republican; and 36% Independent.
And more of the moderates remain up for grabs, not completely comfortable in either party’s camp. As Michelle Diggles and Larnae Erickson Hatalsky assert in an analysis of the poll prepared for Third Way, “They are the persuadables in an electorate often characterized as completely polarized between voters on two sides who have already made up their minds.” One-out-of-three moderates say that they vote equally for Democrats and Republicans.
While an examination of this poll, which tracks previous polling on the topic, shows that by and large moderates are closer to liberals than conservatives on values and issues positions, there are still major differences, giving the right kind of Republican Presidential candidate the potential to make inroads. For example, moderates are more skeptical of big government than liberals. Only 23% of moderates want a larger government, providing more services as opposed to 54% of liberals. Similarly, 67% of moderates say that charity does a better job of helping people than government as compared to 49% ofliberals.
Moderates also still strongly embrace the fundamental notion that ‘most people who want to get ahead in America can make it if they work hard” with 49% of moderates strongly agreeing with that statement as opposed to only 28% of liberals. While concerned about inequality, moderates are far more concerned about generating economic growth.
The path to the White House still goes through the center of the electorate. For anyone interested in what the ‘center’ thinks, this poll provides a thorough look. Don’t take my word for it; check it out for yourself.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
Related Articles
- Rob Horowitz: State of the Union: Obama’s Chance to Set the Agenda
- Rob Horowitz: It’s Time to End the Cuban Trade Embargo
- Rob Horowitz: Progress Possible On Immigration Reform
- Horowitz: Vermont Gives Nation a Wake-Up Call on Opiate Addiction
- Rob Horowitz: A College Degree Is More Important Than Ever
- Rob Horowitz: The War On Poverty, 50 Years Later
- Rob Horowitz: Restore Unemployment Benefits to Long-Term Unemployed
- Rob Horowitz: Obamacare: Hold the Shovels
- Rob Horowitz: Food Stamps Are the Wrong Political Football
- Rob Horowitz: At Last: A National Budget Agreement
- Rob Horowitz: 5 More Reasons for New Year’s Optimism
- Rob Horowitz: Obama Moves into High Gear on Climate Change
- Rob Horowitz: Brewer Veto Cripples Effort to Roll Back Gay Rights
- Horowitz: Obamacare - Here to Stay and on the Right Track
- Rob Horowitz: Two Important Developments on the Climate Front
- Rob Horowitz: One More Reason to Invest in Infrastructure
- Rob Horowitz: Obama Takes Major Step Forward on Climate
- Rob Horowitz: The Civil Rights Act, 50 Years Later
- Rob Horowitz: Supreme Court Keeps Shredding Campaign Finance Laws
- Rob Horowitz: Rand Paul: One of the Early Republican Frontrunners
- Rob Horowitz: Millennials Coming of Age
- Rob Horowitz: National Attention to Obesity Starting to Pay Off
- Rob Horowitz: Social Media: Key Component of the ‘New’ News Media
Follow us on Pinterest Google + Facebook Twitter See It Read It