“The 100 Day Dash to Election Day”—The Sunday Political Brunch August 5, 2018
Sunday, August 05, 2018
“Manchin Ads” – For those who live outside of West Virginia, you cannot believe the onslaught of ads in our U.S. Senate race, which have been almost non-stop since the May primary. It’s relentless. Ads from groups backing the Republican nominee Attorney General Patrick Morrisey have targeted Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) for his stances on immigration reform. Conversely, groups supporting Manchin have attacked Morrisey for lobbying work he and his wife did on behalf of pharmaceutical companies. It’s ugly and intense. And it’s pedal to the metal to November with no let-up in sight. The latest Real Clear Politics composite has Manchin up by 7 points, but Morrisey is a fierce competitor. Both have won state wide several times.
“He’s Back!” – Don Blankenship became something of a national media darling after his Quixotic run for the West Virginia Republican Senate nomination in May. And he’s back. The state’s Constitution Party gave Blankenship the nomination for the U.S. Senate in November. Problem is, the state has what’s known as a “sore-loser law” which aims to prevent spring primary losers from re-emerging in November as candidates on a third-party ballot. Blankenship filed with the Secretary of State, only to be rejected. Get ready for a fast and furious court fight, that could go the U.S. Supreme Court. Blankenship – who has a seemingly bottomless wallet – told me, “I will spend whatever is necessary to get my name on the ballot.”
“Trump on the Stump” – In Florida, President Trump hit the campaign trail this week with an intense rally where he endorsed Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) for governor. But DeSantis faces State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (R-FL), who previously served 10 years in Congress. It’s unusual for a president to get involved in a primary race, but as we’ve seen, this is an unconventional presidency. On the other side of the aisle, is former Rep. Gwen Graham (D-FL), in the Democratic primary. Her dad, Senator Bob Graham, (D-FL) was also a two-term governor of Florida.
“WV 3” – Toss-up!” – One of the most fascinating races for the U.S. House in the nation is right here in West Virginia. The third Congressional District is an open seat after Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV) had an unsuccessful bid for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination. The prestigious Sabato Crystal Ball report had the race as “Leans Republican” but now it’s listed as a “Toss Up.” The Democratic nominee is firebrand State Senator Richard Ojeda (D-Logan), who openly endorsed and voted for Republican Presidential Nominee-turned President Donald Trump. The Republican nominee is Delegate Carol Miller (R-Cabell), the daughter of longtime U.S. Rep. Samuel Devine (R-OH). Put this in your “Top Ten” national House races.
“By the Numbers” – If you are keeping score – and the math is important – here’s where to crunch the numbers. Right now, the Republicans hold a slim 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate, with Vice President Mike Pence being the tie-breaker, if need be. In the House it’s Republicans 236, Democrats 193, with 6 net gain of vacancies. A simple majority is 218 seats, so Democrats are within striking distance.
“North, By North Dakota” – Control of the U.S. Senate may lie in a few states. Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) is hoping to earn a second term in a state that went heavily for Donald Trump in 2016. Right now, the polls show Heitkamp is in a dead-heat with three-term Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND).
“Indiana Wants Me” – Senator Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is also in a tough re-election fight, especially the home state of Vice President Mike Pence. A Gravis Poll in May 2018 had it Republican nominee Mike Braun at 47 percent, with Sen. Donnelly at 46 percent. Flip a coin folks!
“The Other Hot States” – Other states with potentially very competitive Senate races include Nevada, Montana, Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and Florida.
“Why All This Matters” – I think it’s fair to say that President Trump is the most polarizing commander-in-chief in U.S. history. Will that rally his party? Or will it rally the opposition? Stay tuned! And, yes, how people feel at home could also sway races for governor, senator and representative around the country.
What races are hot in your state or region of the country? Just click the comment
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving the state of West Virginia, and its five neighboring states.
Related Articles
- Time for a Political Smackdown Sunday Political Brunch April 1, 2018
- The Sunday Political Brunch—March 25, 2018
- The Race to the Primary Finish Line - Sunday Political Brunch April 8, 2018
- On the Road Again on the Political Trail - The Sunday Political Brunch, April 15
- Our First Ladies are a National Treasure – Sunday Political Brunch—April 22, 2018
- A ‘Topsy-Turvy’ White House—Sunday Political Brunch - March 18, 2018
- Could Trump’s Erosion Become a Political Avalanche?—Sunday Political Brunch March 11
- Sunday Political Brunch: This Year’s Political Valentines
- Sunday Political Brunch—The Looming March Madness of Politics February 18
- It’s a Pot Luck Sunday Political Brunch – February 25
- Of Political Turning Points - Sunday Political Brunch March 4
- The Trump Foreign Policy Doctrine May Be Taking Shape - Sunday Political Brunch April 29
- Will May’s Primary Political Colors be Red or Blue?—Sunday Political Brunch May 6
- The Politics of Civility - or the Lack Thereof—Sunday Political Brunch July 1, 2018
- The Perils of a Political Strategy Disconnect - Sunday Political Brunch June 24, 2018
- “Come See About Me” - The Supreme Court Picks—Sunday Political Brunch July 8, 2018
- The Politics of Finesse, 2018 Style - The Sunday Political Brunch - July 15
- Do You Get “Do-Overs” in Politics?—Sunday Political Brunch - July 22, 2018
- Some Presidential Father’s Day Trivia—The Sunday Political Brunch—June 17, 2018
- The California Political Earthquake? - Sunday Political Brunch - June 10, 2018
- A Primary Post Mortem—The Sunday Political Brunch—May 13, 2018
- The Policy of Speak Softly May be Dead—Sunday Political Brunch—May 20, 2018
- Where’s the “Blue Wave?” – Sunday Political Brunch May 27, 2018
- The Political Dog Daze of Summer—Sunday Political Brunch June 3, 2018
- Do Sharp Elbows Spike Poll Numbers?—Sunday Political Brunch July 29, 2018
Follow us on Pinterest Google + Facebook Twitter See It Read It