“The Sunday Political Brunch”—October 2, 2016

Sunday, October 02, 2016

Mark Curtis, GoLocal Contributor

Sometimes when a major political event happens, the tendency of pundits and politicos is to react right away. Since I only write this column weekly, I like to let things simmer for several days before I weigh in. There is a lot to “brunch” on this week:

“Who Won; Who Lost?” – There was a lot of consternation over that question all week. I quoted a CNN poll, out Tuesday, that said 62 percent of viewers believed Hillary Clinton won, versus 27 percent who thought Donald Trump won. A viewer immediately wrote in asking me why I did not quote any of the online polls that showed Trump won. Here is the difference: CNN’s poll was the only one with a scientifically-drawn, representative sample from the pollster. (Gallup also had one with similar results out by Friday.) As I pointed out to the viewer, online polls are not scientific because anyone can randomly vote, and even vote many times if they wish).

“Where’s the Beef? (I Mean the Bump?)” – If Clinton really beat Trump that badly, then she should have seen a big spike in voter preference polls. Yet a “Los Angeles Times” poll after the debate had Trump leading nationally by five points; and, conversely, a Fox News poll had Clinton up five points. Here is the real preference number that matters: Among Clinton, Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green candidate Jill Stein, the last dozen national polls indicate 94.4 percent of the public has made up its mind. Yes, the numbers for each candidate have fluctuated, but apparently only 5.6 percent of the voters are still undecided. Clinton may have won the debate handily, but it hardly moved the needle. This race remains close.

“Is it Over?” – Good lord, no! That 5.6 percent of the electorate is about to choose the next President. The latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has it 44 percent for Clinton to 41 percent for Trump (and the Libertarian and Green taking just shy of 10 percent). In reality, Clinton and Trump are duking it out for the final 5 percent of the voters, in a race where the margin is just 3 percent. It’s still a competitive race.

“Bad Debate Death Knell” – There is a myth that if you blow one debate (especially the critical first debate), it’s all over. That’s simply not true. Ronald Reagan was just awful in his first reelection debate in 1984, but won in November by a landslide. Barack Obama was equally befuddled in his first reelection debate in 2012, but came on strong later and easily won a second term. Trump has two more bites at the apple.

“Temperament” – I had Monday night’s debate scored even through the first hour (based on debate style, not on policy points). But in the last 20 minutes, Trump simply melted down under the heat of some provocative questions and issues. His low point was losing his temper, while discussing – of all things - what a great temperament he has. It was rich with irony. He spoke of also having more stamina than Clinton, but kept repeating himself and seemed frustrated. Meanwhile, her health issues were not evident. He argued that he has more stamina and a better temperament, but his performance suggested the exact opposite. The only blessing for him is that Trump's meltdown happened in the last quarter hour, when viewership traditionally dwindles a lot from the start of the debate.

“White House vs. NFL” – I think this is just bizarre, but NBC will not be carrying the next debate on Sunday night, October 9. Sure, it will be on CNBC and MSNBC, but not on the mothership network. Making matters worse is that the game pits two of the original, storied NFL teams - the Green Bay Packers versus the New York Giants. The first debate drew 81 million viewers, while NFL football on Sunday night averages 23 million viewers. You do the math. This may actually be a plus for Trump, who scores his highest marks among adult white males (a big audience likely to watch the game, instead of the debate). Because of that, Trump has a chance to persuade other voters – especially the undecideds - who may still watch the debate.

“The Politics of Anger” – For almost a year now, people have been asking me why Hillary Clinton can’t put the competition away. She has a long resume with lots of experience, but she consistently has trouble sealing the deal. She was supposed to be a slam-dunk in 2008, yet Barack Obama beat her. She was a shoo-in for 2016, but Bernie Sanders almost beat her. Now she theoretically should have a huge lead over the politically-inexperienced Donald Trump; yet he’s right at her heels. Look, the public is very, very mad. That’s how Trump got here; that’s how Bernie Sanders nearly made it to the finish line. Unless Clinton can convince that remaining 5 percent that she "gets" their anger and frustration, she may not win.

“VP Debate” – Tuesday night from Farmville, Virginia, we'll see the one-and-only Vice Presidential debate. The debates for the number-two slot always draw big audiences and usually have some amusing surprises. But they’ve never changed the outcome of the race for the White House in any significant way. Tim Kaine and Mike Pence are two very experienced and astute politicians. It will be an informative debate, but not a game changer,

What are your thoughts on the first debate? Just click the comment button atwww.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

Related Slideshow: Winners, Losers, and Defining Moments in First Clinton - Trump Debate

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Steve Quist, Community Activist

1. Who do you think won?

Hands down no question Clinton.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

Trump was on the defensive.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

Trump's continually interrupting and scatter shot answers with no substance. Trump spewed a lot of verbiage and bloviation which was not all grounded in fact nor reality.
Going forward Trump swims uphill...Republicans battle the fallout down ticket and could well lose the US Senate -- incredible repercussions yet to materialize. I wonder if Trump will actually want to show up for the next debate.

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Don Brand, Professor at Holy Cross

1. Who do you think won?

I would call Clinton the winner.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

Trump was on the defensive more than Clinton (hardly anything on Clinton's email).

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

The turning point was the discussion on race. Trump's defense on birther issue was weak, and claiming he settled a racial discrimination suit with no admission of guilt is hardly proclaiming innocence.

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Joe Paolino, Clinton Apointee, Ambassador to Malta

1. Who do you think won?

I don't know if there's a big winner -- I know that some said there was a high bar set for Hillary Clinton and she surpassed it

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

I think Trump lost a lot of points about his taxes. Give us something -- he's the only person in 40 years who hasn't released them. And when it came to nuclear bomb and the whole discussion about NATO he didn't have the grasp that she did.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?
I think that when [Lester] Holt asked at the end, the Trump line that she didn't "look Presidential," I thought she'd give a Lincoln Chafee response and just end it there, but she didn't. I think it showed that Trump just doesn't have the temperament.

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Darrell West, Brookings

1. Who do you think won?

Clinton won the debate by controlling the conversation and getting many more of her attack lines into the debate. He barely mentioned her emails and made no mention of Benghazi.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

He missed many opportunities to criticize her. Her killer line was that she she prepared for the debate and is prepared to be president.

He got irritated easily and had many sighs and groans. He did not have a good answer on why he has not released his tax returns.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

He had a number of factual errors in his statements. This was not a close debate. She dominated from start to end.

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Jennifer Duffy, Cook Report

1. Who do you think won?

I think Clinton "won," but I don't think she scored any knock out blows.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

As expected, Trump wasn't prepared. Clinton threw a lot of bait and Trump took it every time.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

I don't know that there was a defining moment. Whatever impact this debate may have will be short lived. I don't think this moved the needle much for either candidate.

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Lisa Lawless, Professor at American University

1. Who do you think won?

Clinton, and it wasn't even close. She won on substance, style, and reminding viewers of her opponents weaknesses. She was prepared, kept her cool, and was very respectful of both Trump and Lester Holt.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

Donald Trump was on the defensive the entire night. He attempted to bait Clinton and it never worked. But every time Clinton tried to do the same, Trump took the bait. You know it's bad when a candidate has to reference private conversations with Sean Hannity as a defense of his character and policy positions.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

When Hillary Clinton responded to Trump's criticism that she wasn't campaigning this week, she told voters that she spent the week preparing for the debate, and that she'll also prepare when she's president. That one response really highlighted a key difference between them and the fact that experience matters. It also seemed that at that point, Trump started to come undone.
I should also note that there will likely be a lot of discussion about the extent to which Trump was sexist or was beating up on a woman. Here's my take: He was behaving EXACTLY the way he did with Bush, Rubio, etc. I see little here that is about Clinton being a woman. Trump has demonstrated time and again that he has no respect for people he debates, women or men. That's not to say that Trump isn't sexist. I think the evidence suggests he is. But I'm not sure that his behavior tonight is the best evidence for that claim.