“The Sunday Political Brunch” – October 9, 2016

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Mark Curtis, GoLocal Contributor

I had been planning all week to write a primer for each of the Presidential candidates on strategies for the second debate this weekend, and I still am, But the events of Friday and the revelations of the “Access Hollywood” outtakes from Donald Trump certainly cannot be ignored. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“The Apology” – Whether it happens prior to the debate or within it - or both - Trump has to be humble and unequivocal in his apology. There is no wiggle room here. On Friday Trump apologized – well, sort of – by saying, “This was locker room banter, a private conversation that took place many years ago. Bill Clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course - not even close. I apologize if anyone was offended." He needs to pare it down dramatically. No locker room excuse; no Bill Clinton comparison; and, no ‘years ago’ disclaimer. His apology has to be succinct and sincere, and has to be an acceptance of total responsibility, with humility. Otherwise, he won’t survive this scandal; and he may not anyway.

“Don’t Go There” – This – in truth – is going to require some deft and deliberate response from Hillary Clinton. My suggestion for her is not to be smug or lecturing. She might even be so gracious as to say, “Mr. Trump, I accept your apology. Let’s move on and discuss the critical issues that voters want us to debate!” I say this because this could get ugly. Trump had been strategizing about lashing out at Bill Clinton and his many indiscretions, and Hillary Clinton’s efforts to discredit some of the women involved. It could open up a “can a worms” the Clinton campaign just doesn’t need right now. Her best shot: Take the high road, and let Trump’s remarks stand on face value.

“Bush League” – I’m not a great believer in political conspiracies; nor am I a believer in coincidences. Of all people to have the Trump interview outtakes, it was Billy Bush of “Access Hollywood.” Some people in my newsroom were stunned when I pointed out that Billy was a member of “that” Bush family. He has flown under the radar and has done his own thing for many years, never riding his famous family name to accomplishment. He’s worked hard and kept his distance; but his dad, Jonathan Bush, is the brother of former President George H.W. Bush. Billy, President George W., and Governor Jeb are all first cousins. The Bushes don’t like how Trump treated Jeb and - by extension – the whole Bush family. If this is a payback, then paybacks are truly hell! And my gut tells me that matriarch Barbara Bush might be leading the charge. She doesn’t much like people messing with her family!

“Benghazi” – Trivia question: Name a key issue and place in the 2016 Presidential campaign that was never mentioned in the first debate. I just did a transcript keyword search because I could not recall Benghazi ever being mentioned. I was right - not a peep in 90 minutes. If Trump wants to turn the debate, he needs to put Clinton on the defensive (or risk himself being on the defensive all night long). He must attack, or his chances at winning this race are toast. There is plenty of evidence that Americans in Libya called for more help, and were denied. Four people died; and the nation was embarrassed, especially by a phony excuse that some “anti-Muslim” video provoked the attack. Trump needs to make his case here, and vigorously so.

“What’s Your Email Address?” – Another area of vulnerability Trump needs to attack is the Clinton email scandal. He needs to make a very focused, pointed attack. For example, Clinton said she never emailed any classified, top secret documents. But she did, and the FBI confirmed that, even though it chose not to seek her prosecution. Again, the email issue was barely touched in the first debate; and Trump can’t blame Lester Holt for that. Look, if the moderator does not ask the question, then - as a candidate - raise the question yourself. Call her out, and be relentless.

“You’ve Got Mail!” – I want to circle back to my previous point about a Trump apology. Hillary Clinton issued a brief regret in the first debate, and it defused the issue. It was brilliant and disarming on her part, and Trump should heed the lesson. When the email issue came up, Clinton responded, "I'm not going to make any excuses, it was a mistake." Eleven words - that’s it - and the issue came up only once later in the debate. She didn’t say, “But other Secretaries of State did it, too,” or make other excuses. She just acknowledged her mistake, and moved on. Trump has a chance to make a similar mea culpa, so let’s see if he does.

“The Vision Thing” – One of the biggest disappointments of the first debate was that neither candidate offered a vision of the future. There was no John Kennedy “send a man to the moon” vision, or no Ronald Reagan “shining city on a hill” image. Back in 1992, when challenger Bill Clinton was painting very futurist goals, President H.W. Bush admitted candidly that he needed to work harder on“the vision thing.” We need to hear from Clinton and Trump Sunday about some lofty goal or vision of the future for our kids. Elections need to be about hope!

“Stand Your Ground” – The second debate comes exactly 30 days before the vote. My advice to Hillary Clinton is to be consistent and resolute. Be the voice and vision of experience. Look, she’s not warm and fuzzy; and she gets low marks for trustworthiness; so her one ace is to sell her resume. She needs to come across as steady, sober, and competent. It may seem an odd sell, but to the undecided voters out there she needs to make the case that, “You may not like me, but I can do this job!” No, it wouldn't make a good bumper sticker, but it may sway the final, wavering two to five percent of uncommitted voters needed to put her in the White House.

“We’re Here, Too!” – For third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, my recommendation is "Buy a plane ticket to St. Louis and let the media know you are there, just as you did at the political conventions this summer. Elbow your way onto CNN, Fox, and MSNBC. They would all love to have you. Even though you aren’t on the actual debate stage, you can still make some waves."

What is your recommended debate strategy for the candidates? Just click the comment button at http://www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

Related Slideshow: Winners, Losers, and Defining Moments in First Clinton - Trump Debate

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Steve Quist, Community Activist

1. Who do you think won?

Hands down no question Clinton.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

Trump was on the defensive.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

Trump's continually interrupting and scatter shot answers with no substance. Trump spewed a lot of verbiage and bloviation which was not all grounded in fact nor reality.
Going forward Trump swims uphill...Republicans battle the fallout down ticket and could well lose the US Senate -- incredible repercussions yet to materialize. I wonder if Trump will actually want to show up for the next debate.

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Don Brand, Professor at Holy Cross

1. Who do you think won?

I would call Clinton the winner.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

Trump was on the defensive more than Clinton (hardly anything on Clinton's email).

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

The turning point was the discussion on race. Trump's defense on birther issue was weak, and claiming he settled a racial discrimination suit with no admission of guilt is hardly proclaiming innocence.

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Joe Paolino, Clinton Apointee, Ambassador to Malta

1. Who do you think won?

I don't know if there's a big winner -- I know that some said there was a high bar set for Hillary Clinton and she surpassed it

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

I think Trump lost a lot of points about his taxes. Give us something -- he's the only person in 40 years who hasn't released them. And when it came to nuclear bomb and the whole discussion about NATO he didn't have the grasp that she did.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?
I think that when [Lester] Holt asked at the end, the Trump line that she didn't "look Presidential," I thought she'd give a Lincoln Chafee response and just end it there, but she didn't. I think it showed that Trump just doesn't have the temperament.

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Darrell West, Brookings

1. Who do you think won?

Clinton won the debate by controlling the conversation and getting many more of her attack lines into the debate. He barely mentioned her emails and made no mention of Benghazi.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

He missed many opportunities to criticize her. Her killer line was that she she prepared for the debate and is prepared to be president.

He got irritated easily and had many sighs and groans. He did not have a good answer on why he has not released his tax returns.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

He had a number of factual errors in his statements. This was not a close debate. She dominated from start to end.

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Jennifer Duffy, Cook Report

1. Who do you think won?

I think Clinton "won," but I don't think she scored any knock out blows.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

As expected, Trump wasn't prepared. Clinton threw a lot of bait and Trump took it every time.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

I don't know that there was a defining moment. Whatever impact this debate may have will be short lived. I don't think this moved the needle much for either candidate.

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Lisa Lawless, Professor at American University

1. Who do you think won?

Clinton, and it wasn't even close. She won on substance, style, and reminding viewers of her opponents weaknesses. She was prepared, kept her cool, and was very respectful of both Trump and Lester Holt.

2. Why do you think the other candidate lost?

Donald Trump was on the defensive the entire night. He attempted to bait Clinton and it never worked. But every time Clinton tried to do the same, Trump took the bait. You know it's bad when a candidate has to reference private conversations with Sean Hannity as a defense of his character and policy positions.

3. What was the defining moment - what does it mean for the campaigns moving forward?

When Hillary Clinton responded to Trump's criticism that she wasn't campaigning this week, she told voters that she spent the week preparing for the debate, and that she'll also prepare when she's president. That one response really highlighted a key difference between them and the fact that experience matters. It also seemed that at that point, Trump started to come undone.
I should also note that there will likely be a lot of discussion about the extent to which Trump was sexist or was beating up on a woman. Here's my take: He was behaving EXACTLY the way he did with Bush, Rubio, etc. I see little here that is about Clinton being a woman. Trump has demonstrated time and again that he has no respect for people he debates, women or men. That's not to say that Trump isn't sexist. I think the evidence suggests he is. But I'm not sure that his behavior tonight is the best evidence for that claim.