Tom Finneran: The Unknowns and What Ifs of Election Season
Friday, November 02, 2012
Tom Finneran, GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™
With apologies to Buffalo Springfield, and an additional apology for poor grammar, we begin the four day countdown to the election with a host of “unknowns and what-ifs”.
*Let’s start with the monthly job report, which should surface perhaps today, and certainly before next Tuesday. With almost universal agreement that this presidential election is centered on the economy and which of the candidate is the most likely to get America back to work, the jobs report could become a pass/fail grade for the President. If it’s a bad report, it puts the hammer into Mitt Romney’s hands to drive the point home in the campaign’s closing hours.
If it’s a good report, then the President has the hammer. One ominous sign to consider----this past week saw dismal earnings reports from a number of companies. Neither those companies, nor associated clients and vendors, are likely to have been hiring lots of folks lately. Dismal earnings depress hiring. Keep your eye on this variable.
*What if the “political experts,” with their targeted ad campaigns, have under-estimated or mis-judged the American people? In a campaign year where the conventional political wisdom has been repeatedly wrong—i.e.—Romney’s Mormon faith would prove fatal, Santorum had no chance in Iowa, Perry would blow Romney out of the water, South Carolina always picks the eventual nominee, Obama is a great orator/debater—those self-styled experts may finally have burned their bridges. Evidence for their blunders comes from a pro-choice woman, a Massachusetts Democrat, who finds the party’s obsession with abortion demeaning and repulsive, and the so-called “war on women” to be an insulting fiction.
If Barack Obama has lost her, he has lost a lot. Other ads are equally ridiculous---for example, being in favor of a gradual rise in retirement age is NOT an “attack” on Social Security. Does anyone really fall for such crap? And do the candidates and their handlers really think that Americans are that stupid?
*Whither the Catholic vote? Is there any reasonably attentive religious person in America who does not have serious second thoughts about the contraception/abortion mandate issued as part of Obamacare’s regulations?
And it’s not only Catholic voters who have expressed alarm. There are serious First Amendment principles at stake which have animated other religious groups in opposition to the HHS edict. That said, many Catholics vote upon “social justice” concerns, which could give heart to Democratic candidates. Are the bishops themselves united in strong and compelling ways to “instruct” the flock on these matters? Do those bishops, in the aftermath of the sexual abuse scandals, have any moral or political sway? Is there really any such thing as “the Catholic vote”? Pray tell.
*Whither New Hampshire? Our neighbors to the North are certainly getting a lot of attention from the candidates. Which New Hampshire will emerge next Tuesday? Will it be the New Hampshire of outgoing Governor John Lynch and U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen? Or will it be the New Hampshire of 2010 which moved so decisively away from Democrats at all levels of government? Mitt Romney has a home there and he started his 2012 presidential campaign there. He is well known and well liked. Yet President Obama and Vice President Biden have been there often enough to have earned honorary citizenship. And each party knows that New Hampshire’s four electoral college votes could be crucial. Just ask Al Gore.
*Is there a “silent majority”? Multiple polls show a very tight race and even President Obama’s most enthusiastic fans acknowledge that the thrill and history of 2008 is gone. This campaign is now just a good old-fashioned political slugfest. The “silent majority” of this race might be the many people who have been disappointed by the events of the past four years.
While they still like President Obama and his family, they might well conclude that he has had his chance to turn things around and they really want to try something else. Their “silence” might be explained by the specter of race and their desire to avoid the accusation of racism. If issues of race in America were not so heartbreaking and painful, their fear would almost be laughable.
Such voters were white four years ago when they voted for Barack and he was black. They’re still white and he’s still black . Did they become “racist” overnight? White voters consciously chose Barack Obama over John McCain four years ago and put him in the White House as our 44th President. And, as Barack himself has said many times, his life story is so improbable that it could only have happened in the United States of America.
Four more days and then we’ll know at least some of the unknowns. The what-ifs are for friendly chatter and armchair historians… Four more days and then we vote. Until then, love life.
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