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Will Brown Benefit From “New” Romney?

Saturday, October 06, 2012


Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney played strongly to the middle in his first debate with President Barack Obama, and some observers say the positive response to the former Massachusetts Governor may aid Republican Senator Scott Brown in his close race with Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren.

Romney's performance Wednesday night was universally praised and served to excite those on the right, while Obama's lackluster showing seemed to let some of the wind out of the Democratic Party's sails.

Trickle-Down Voternomics

"A rising tide raises all the ships," said Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution.

"If Romney runs better nationally, it could add a few percentage points to Republicans in various states."

In the Massachusetts Senate race, Brown and Warren have been neck-and-neck in recent polls, with the Democrat enjoying a slight edge after surging in the weeks following her primetime speech at the party's national convention in Charlotte last month.

Romney, on the other hand, trailed Obama by 18 points in the Bay State, 57-39, in a September survey by Public Policy Polling.

While a victory in the Commonwealth for the former Governor is out of the question, closing the gap between himself and Obama by a few points is not, and a few points may be all Brown needs to secure another six years in Washington.

"Any votes for Romney are also votes for Brown, even if Romney still has no chance of winning Massachusetts," said Robert Boatright, a professor of Political Science at Clark University.

"That doesn't change his strategy -- it's not as if anyone excited about Romney is going to vote for Warren, but he still needs to appeal to ticket splitters."

An Easier Ticket To Split

Brown has made a habit of playing up his independence and bipartisanship throughout his campaign, seemingly distancing himself from the national Republican Party. He has not made any campaign appearances with Romney nor featured him in any campaign ads, opting instead to showcase Massachusetts Democrats who crossed the aisle to support the Senator's reelection bid and even using a clip of Brown shaking hands with Obama and snagging a "Good job," from the President.

Meanwhile, Warren has attempted to play up her opponent's party affiliation, using the threats of a Romney-Ryan administration and a Republican-controlled Senate to try to win back Democratic voters who would otherwise cross the aisle and cast their ballots for Brown.

With registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans 3 to 1 in Massachusetts and the state's unenrolled voters outnumbering both parties combined, Brown needs substantial support from outside his own party.

According to UMass-Lowell Political Science Professor Morgan Marietta, an ascendent Romney actually improves the Senator's odds for getting voters to come across.

"Scott Brown is relying on Massachusetts voters to split their tickets, which is more persuasive when the Republican brand is doing well," Marietta said.

"And Elizabeth Warren's attempt to tie Brown to Romney has less bite when the Republican contender is perceived as a highly competent and calm debater."

Senate Still The Focus For Mass

Jennifer Lawless, director of the Women & Politics Institute at American University, said Romney and Obama's respective performances in the first presidential debate were not likely to matter in the Bay State Senate race.

"Even if Romney 'won' the debate, it’s only one important event of many between now and Election Day," she said.

"And we can bet that the Obama campaign is retooling a bit and that he will perform better in the next two debates."

Regardless of how much ground Romney gains in the next month, Massachusetts will not become a competitive state in the presidential race, giving the national parties little reason to invest time and resources in the Commonwealth for a contest that has been largely overshadowed by the battle for the late Ted Kennedy's seat in Washington.

"This means that the Senate race remains the key race in the state and the differences between Warren and Brown are what are significant, not the differences between Obama and Romney," said Lawless.


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Edward Saucier

Good grief, the writer states that Romney played strongly to the middle in his first debate. The MSM and all the so called pundits say "Mitt Won"! Why would supposedly rational people say a man who did nothing but lie to the people on national TV was a winner. They all know he was lying and his facts and figures were conjured up or completely misrepresented.

All those people who now make money fact-checking all the things politicians are saying are having a field day ripping Romney's so called "facts" to ribbons. The republicans give new meaning to the word nonsense. Scott Brown loves to exaggerate everything when he's not misrepresenting the facts. The entire republican party reminds me of and old SNL skit with Jon Lovitz called the Pathological Liar.

The MSM that the right-wing refers to as being too left wing biased is completely disgusting when they faun over some of those republican twits. When a left wing talk show host comes out and asks the question, "Is this the end of Big Bird?" you gotta think that we the people are very screwed no matter who is POTUS.

Kristin Mayo

In case you still think Scott is for the middle class.
(and you can verify by checking his voting record)

" Wall Street never wanted to see Elizabeth Warren sworn into the Senate, and now it's flooding her opponent’s campaign coffers in the final stretch of one of the closest races in the country.

Scott Brown raked in more than $500,000 from employees and PACs in the financial sector in June, the most recent month of data available, a report compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics for POLITICO found. That’s more than he’s gotten from the industry in any month since the start of last year." from Politico

Still Scott is arguing that he is bipartisan. When?

Harvey Beehive

Right Ed. All Republicans lie and all Democrats tell the truth - and only YOU seem to know about it. Obama had his chance during the debate to refute what Romney said. The fact of the matter is that Obama is just not very bright or quick on his feet. He has had the protection of a teleprompter for 4 years, but its obvious that he's wearing no clothes. He enjoys acting the part of president and living in the White House and flying on AF 1, but he doesn't like being president. He's just plain lazy...

Kristin Mayo

On ABC's "This Week" roundtable Sunday, Paul Krugman said Mitt Romney is exploiting a press that is ineffective at holding politicians accountable for lies.

"The press just doesn’t know how to handle flat-out untruths," he said.
"I don’t know whether to blame [the debate moderator Jim] Lehrer or the president, but it was kind of amazing because Romney was not only saying things that are not true, he was saying things that his own campaign had previously said weren’t true,” said the economist and New York Times columnist.

Citing Romney's claims on taxes and preexisting conditions, Krugman said the Republican nominee showed "contempt for us by thinking the news media will not cover on me as long as they say forcefully I won."

Gingrich on debating Romney:
"You cannot debate somebody who is dishonest. You just can't."
~January 28th, 2012

Edward Saucier

Right Harvey, you hold that thought "Sparky" and don't check the Fact Check reports, you might learn something or maybe they would just clog you brain some more.

Kristin, I like that Gingrich quote. He probably stole it from someone else because Gingrich can lie with the best of them.

Stephen Quist

IHOP'er Hall of Famer flip-flopping mitty performed exactly as one would expect from a career flip-flopper. He ran away from his partisianship of the republiCant party primary and now he has to address America as a whole and VOILA! a new and improved flip-flopping mitty saying whatever it takes to woo an audience even when he contradicts himself repeatedly as he has shown this election season.
Obama in a landslide!

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