Patriots: Let the Party Begin!

Monday, December 13, 2010

Mike Parente, GoLocalProv Sports Editor

Now it’s over.

Thanks to another lopsided win by the Patriots and another putrid display of offensive by the Jets, you can safely refer to New England as the 2010 AFC East champions without fear of some colossal meltdown ruining the party.

The Patriots clinched a playoff berth on their own merit Sunday by embarrassing the Bears, 36-7, amidst snow flurries and treacherous winds at Soldier Field, but they also moved a step closer to another division title – their seventh in eight years – after the Jets failed to score an offensive touchdown for the second consecutive week in an awful loss to Miami at home.

Patriots Path

Even after Monday’s butt-whoopin’ at Gillette Stadium, the Jets still had a chance to usurp New England in the AFC East by virtue of a series of complicated tie-breakers. Yesterday would’ve been the day to do it; the Patriots were on the road, where they were only 6-8 dating back to last season, against a Chicago team that had won five in a row, while the Jets were back home at the New Meadowlands Stadium against the unimpressive Dolphins, who’ve been wallowing in their own mediocrity since September.

A loss by the Patriots and a win by the Jets would’ve left both teams at 10-3, and the Jets would’ve had the temporary division lead thanks to their 4-1 record against AFC East rivals, whereas the Patriots would’ve been just 3-1 – a mere half game behind New York in that respective tie-breaker. As for the rest of the tie-breaker scenarios that could’ve come into play this season, fuggedaboutit – the Jets are done in the chase for the division title and might even be in jeopardy of losing out on a playoff spot if they don’t figure out how to score touchdowns again.

To put it in perspective, the Jets now trail New England by two full games in the AFC East with three games remaining. New York would have to run the table while hoping the Patriots lose two of their final three games just to force a tie. Here’s where it gets complicated. The first tie-breaker is the head-to-head record between the two teams in question. That’s a guaranteed tie since the Jets and Patriots split the season series. From there, the NFL relies on division record. Under the aforementioned scenario, the Jets would finish 4-2 against AFC East opponents since they have one division game left on their schedule (at home against Buffalo on Jan. 2). In order to win the AFC East on this tie-breaker, the Jets would need the Patriots to lose their final two games against Buffalo and Miami, which would give New England a 3-3 division record and subsequently give New York the division title.

There’s little to no chance of that happening, so – for argument’s sake – let’s just say the Patriots split their final two games while losing next week to Green Bay. Under our original – and admittedly farfetched – scenario, the Jets and Patriots would both be 13-3 with identical division records. Now we look at their records against common opponents, which is the next tiebreaker. Outside of the AFC East, the Patriots and Jets have five common opponents this year: Baltimore, Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit and Pittsburgh. Even with a win next weekend against the Steelers, which they would need in order to run the table and make all of this nonsense applicable to begin with, the Jets would still fall short; the Patriots would be 4-1 in those games (the only loss would be to Green Bay, which is part of our fantasy scenario) while the Jets would be 3-2 with the only hiccup coming in a Week 1 loss to Baltimore.

Who says games in September don’t count the same as games in December? Under this wild and wacky scenario, the Jets would go from being the top seed in the AFC with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to fifth by virtue of the third tie-breaker because of a loss way back in the season opener.

Dynasty?

Is your head spinning yet? Mine too, which is why I prefer to look at this from a realistic standpoint. Barring a collapse of 2004 New York Yankee proportions, the Patriots will be division champions this season for the second year in a row and for the seventh time in their last eight seasons under Bill Belichick. They can make it official next week by beating Green Bay at home.

As we said on Saturday, the last thing the Patriots wanted to do was get caught up in a bunch of confusing tie-breaker scenarios. Tie-breakers haven’t been kind to Belichick in recent years; they lost out on playoff spots in 2002 and 2008 because of tie-breakers, so with a chance to control their own destiny Sunday in Chicago, they delivered in grand fashion, eliminating any need to worry about stuff they can’t control. They’ve now outscored their last three opponents 102-10 since the fourth quarter of their Thanksgiving win at Detroit.

Now it’s the Jets who have to worry about tie-breakers while relying on others to do their dirty work for them. That’s never a fun position to be in, especially when you haven’t scored an offensive touchdown since Thanksgiving. And if you really want to know why the Patriots are soaring while the Jets are suddenly crashing back down to earth, consider this fun fact: New England has forced 13 turnovers during this recent five-game winning streak without turning the ball over once on its own end while Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez coughed it up twice Sunday, leading to 10 points for the Dolphins that turned out to be the difference in a 10-6 loss.

This game isn’t as difficult to analyze as it seems. If you take care of the ball and take advantage when your opponent fails to do so, you’ll win more often than not. What’s even easier to figure out is the Patriots have officially buried the Jets in the race for first place. All that’s left now is to wrap up home-field advantage and count the days until playoff football begins.