Sox get Gonzalez, but are they stronger?
Monday, December 06, 2010
I’ll say this much about Theo Epstein: the man has an incredible knack for acquiring quality players from poverty-stricken teams in exchange for table scraps. He sent Jorge de la Rosa, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and minor leaguer Michael Goss to Arizona in 2003 to get Curt Schilling and now he’s pulled off another steal by bringing Gonzalez to Boston without having to give up Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard or Jed Lowrie.
And even if Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo or Rey Fuentes – three of the four players rumored to be involved in this deal – turn out to be the next Nolan Ryan or Babe Ruth, who cares? Gonzalez will produce immediately, which sure as hell beats waiting around for prospects who may or may not develop into the kind of players they’re projected to become.
After striking out on Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and other key players through the years, the Red Sox finally got their man – one they’ve coveted for more than a year – but are they a better team than they were a week ago, or are they just a more expensive, flashier version of the 2010 team that finished third in the American League East?
The Sox have already lost catcher Victor Martinez, who signed a 4-year, $50-million contact with Detroit. Martinez will be 32 in three weeks, so you can’t blame Boston for not wanting to invest four years in a player who will probably hit the wall halfway through his new contract. The Red Sox would’ve regretted that deal two years from now, but they’ll miss his .844 OPS next season if their only solution to replacing his bat is a platoon between the offensively-challenged Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Likewise, the Gonzalez acquisition forces Kevin Youkilis to move to third base, which means Adrian Beltre will take his services elsewhere. Beltre, 31, bounced back from an injury-plagued 2009 with 28 home runs and a .919 OPS last year. He also posted a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 7.1, which means he was worth seven more victories than a replacement-level (think minor-league) third baseman. Gonzalez’s WAR last year was 5.3. For what it's worth, Beltre also had a higher OPS than Gonzalez last year, so the theory that the Gonzalez trade immediately makes Boston better is seriously flawed. Whether Beltre could’ve duplicated those numbers at his age would’ve been a huge question mark entering 2011, but getting another player to produce at that same rate for at least next season might be equally difficult.
Unless another move is made between now and the start of spring training, the Red Sox are essentially swapping Beltre and Martinez for Gonzalez and the combination of Varitek and Saltalamacchia, which is an obvious downgrade in almost every important statistical category. Varitek is 38 and hasn’t been a productive player in five years and Saltalamacchia has never played more than 93 games in a season or slugged higher than .422.
The only other spot in the lineup begging for an upgrade is left field, where the Sox are banking on 38-year-old Mike Cameron or second-year pros Ryan Kalish or Daniel Nava to fill the void now that Jacoby Ellsbury is tentatively back where he belongs in center. Jayson Werth would’ve been a solid acquisition, but the Nationals signed him to a ridiculous 7-year, $126-million contract Sunday, which not only takes him off the market, but also raises the asking price for Carl Crawford – the only other free-agent outfielder worth the money. Considering who else is out there (Rick Ankiel, Andruw Jones and Austin Kearns, among others), the Sox would be better off hoping for a miracle from Cameron if they’re unable to land Crawford.
The only other way they can replace Beltre and Martinez’s production is with a healthy Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, who combined to miss 147 games in 2009. Based on power numbers alone, it’s possible. Beltre and Martinez combined for 48 home runs last year. Pedroia would need a career year in 2011 to reach 20. Youkilis could hit anywhere between 20 and 30. The numbers might match up in the end, but it ultimately makes Boston as good as it was offensively last year, not much better.
The Gonzalez trade is clearly more beneficial for Boston’s future than its present. Unlike Werth, who is already 32 and will never be as valuable to Washington as his ludicrous contract suggests he should be, Gonzalez has yet to reach his prime and – assuming he signs the 8-year extension that’s been floating around the rumor mill this weekend – will provide more long-term value in the American League, where can he ultimately become a designated hitter when his defensive skills erode.
This is a major trade and should be treated as such, but the Red Sox have plenty more work to do in order to avoid choking on the Yankees’ exhaust fumes for the third year in a row. Whether the acquisition of one great player supplements what they’ve already lost – or are about to lose – remains to be seen, so lower the volume on your trumpets. There’s plenty of time left in this offseason, and plenty of money yet to be spent.
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