The 2010 Patriots - Trick or Treat?
Friday, September 03, 2010
Before I ramble on about the 2010 Patriots and the challenges they face, I will tell you that what happens during the preseason isn’t necessarily indicative of what will happen to a team during the regular season. The Indianapolis Colts may be the best example of that. Over the last decade they have performed poorly in the month of August, only to light up the league when it counts in September, October, November and December. Still, based upon what we have seen over the past few seasons and this summer, I’d say we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the Pats this year.
Once again this is a team whose identity will be based on their quick-strike offense. Tom Brady is, by far, their top weapon and he will be relied on heavily to carry this team. This is unlike 2001 when Brady took over the reigns from Drew Bledsoe and was essentially asked to “not screw it up.” Back then the Pats had a bend but don’t break defense which had the ability to make big plays when necessary. Likewise, their special teams units were solid and made many game-changing plays as well. Brady needed to manage the offense, not turn the ball over and make a play or two when needed. Those days are long gone.
Randy Moss and Wes Welker will help Brady make a lot of those big plays that this team will need and it appears that they may have some help this year as opposed to years past. Fellow WR Brandon Tate could prove to be a valuable weapon for the offense along with the always reliable second year WR Julian Edelman. Rookie TE’s Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez should also help take pressure off of Moss and Welker along with veteran TE Alge Crumpler.
The running game looks like it will be adequate but it would be a stretch to consider it anything more than that at this point. Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and, we think, Laurence Maroney should comprise their ground game by committee. Unsung hero Kevin Faulk will be utilized heavily in third down situations and the passing game and will even run the ball on draw plays and in other selective situations.
The problem this offense might have is controlling the football and dominating time of possession. Because they are not a great running offense and possess that quick-strike ability, they may not have a lot of 14-play, 80-yard drives that chew up 8 minutes off the clock. If Bill O’Brien and company are smart, they will try to create as many of those drives as possible with a combination of short passes and timely runs. It would benefit an inexperienced defense which may take time to develop and take some lumps in the process.
Let’s talk about that defense. Only a Patriots fan wearing rose-colored glasses would predict great things for this unit this season. In my opinion, this unit may struggle in every area this season. Stuffing the run won’t be easy with Ty Warren out for the season and guys like Seymoure, Bruschi and Harrison long gone and hard to find. But that may be the least of their problems.
This unit could get abused by good quarterbacks and receivers given their inability to put pressure on the quarterback and the fact that they have such a young and inexperienced secondary.
Leigh Bodden’s season-ending injury was a big blow to the Pats defense and will probably force rookie first round pick Devin McCourty to start opposite second-year corner Darius Butler. Second-year safety Patrick Chung also appears to be in-line for a starting spot in the secondary alongside the only experienced member of it in Brandon Merriweather.
Because of their youth and inexperience, this secondary will make its share of mistakes and give up some big plays. What will make their jobs significantly more difficult it this team’s inability to put pressure on the opposing quarterback.
The Pats best two down linemen who were able to collapse the pocket and pressure the QB were Richard Seymoure and Jarvis Green. They’re no longer here. Their best pass rushing linebackers in recent years were Mike Vrabel, Roosevelt Colvin and Willie McGinest. Like those other guys, they’re not here and this organization has yet to find players of equal skill level to replace them.
Special teams are the great unknown. Kickoffs, field goals and extra points should be in good hands with Stephen Gostkowski. Punting, on the other hand, will be worth watching with rookie Zoltan Mesko booting the ball. Kick and punt coverage could be a question mark depending upon who steps up in those two areas of the game.
The return game may be interesting. Brandon Tate could be the wild card in both the kickoff and punt return games. Julian Edelman and Devin McCourty could also be factors although McCourty’s time returning kicks could be limited or even eliminated since he’ll be asked to play significant minutes on the defensive side of the football.
From a coaching standpoint, the Pats still have one of the very best leading the way in Bill Belichick. We will see if his supporting cast can coach up their respective units the way some of Belichick’s previous assistants were able to. Weiss, Crennell, Mangini, McDaniels and Seeley are just some of the great assistants to leave Foxboro and leave us wanting for more.
In defense of some of the newer assistants, you can only work with what you have and clearly this team has lost some talented players and leaders in recent years making it that much more difficult for various units to perform up to the levels we have come to expect from this team over the last decade.
In short, this team will live and die based upon how many points their offense can put on the scoreboard each week. That’s not to say that the defense or special teams won’t have to make big plays, they will. But the only known strength on this team is its offense.
If the defense surprises us with great play or two or, at the very least, matures as the season progresses, that would be significant for this franchise which wants to believe that its glory days are not behind it.
Whatever the case may be, it should make for an interesting 2010 season.
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