They’re not great, but they might be good enough

Monday, November 01, 2010

Mike Parente, GoLocalProv Sports Editor

When Bill Parcells uttered the now-infamous phrase, “You are what you are,” I don’t think his intent was to take win-loss records at face value.

Following yesterday’s 28-18 win over Minnesota, the New England Patriots are now 6-1, which is the best record in the NFL. They’ve done it despite entering Sunday ranked 30th in the league in total defense and 23rd in points per game allowed, which means one of two things – either the Patriots are fortunate to be where they are this morning, or they truly are the best among a crop of severely underwhelming teams.

I’m still not sure where I stand on this, but here’s one of the two things I do know: Only six times in the 44-year history of the Super Bowl has a team won it all despite not finishing among the Top 10 in the league in points per game allowed, and only two teams have done it despite finishing in the bottom third of the league defensively.

Upon first glance, it appears that unless the Patriots improve defensively, they’ll need to pull off a rare feat in order to win their first Super Bowl in seven years, but upon further review, it appears the old adage of, “Defense wins championships,” might not be as true as it was during the infancy of the Super Bowl era.

Among the six occurrences in which teams ranked below the Top 10 in defense won the Super Bowl, three of them have come within the past four years, including the aforementioned teams who finished in the bottom third – the 2006 Indianapolis Colts (23rd in points per game allowed) and the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints (20th).

The Colts and Saints were offensive juggernauts during their respective title runs (Indianapolis finished second in total offense in ’06 while New Orleans led the league in scoring last year), perhaps a sign that you no longer need to be stout defensively in order to win the Super Bowl. Even the 2007 New York Giants, who upset the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII by smothering New England’s record-setting offense, weren’t outstanding defensively during the regular season, finishing 17th out of 32 teams in points allowed per game.

This brings us to the other thing I know: The Patriots have one of the league’s five best players in quarterback Tom Brady, which is great news considering the new blueprint for success in the NFL is scoring a bunch of points while being above average defensively.

In yesterday’s win over the Vikings, Brady’s performance under pressure was once again the deciding factor. After Minnesota scored midway through the fourth quarter to trim New England’s lead to 21-18, Brady calmly led the troops on a 13-play, 80-yard scoring drive that shaved five and a half minutes off the clock and put the game out of reach. Along the way, Brady converted two third downs on passes to Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis capped the drive with a 2-yard touchdown run.

The Patriots would’ve been in trouble if Minnesota had gotten the ball back trailing by a field goal, even with Brett Favre having been knocked out of the game after getting cut on the chin following a hit by defensive lineman Myron Pryor. Up until that point, Favre had his way with the Patriots’ defense, completing 22 of 32 passes for 259 yards, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Even Favre’s lone interception wasn’t entirely his fault; wide receiver Percy Harvin bobbled the ball (albeit a low throw) while falling to the turf and cornerback Devin McCourty scooped it up in midair for his second pick of the season.

Sunday’s win was eerily similar to the season opener against Cincinnati in which the Patriots held off a second-half surge by the Bengals thanks to a late scoring drive that chewed 7:41 off the clock. The Patriots’ best defense this year has been their offense, which is amazing considering their real defense frequently allows long drives that take up a ton of time and leave Brady with the unenviable task of operating within absurd parameters. Through it all, Brady’s been a consummate pro; he’s ranked fifth among active quarterbacks in passer rating and is making a strong case for his second NFL MVP award. This is why he’s the highest-paid player in the league.

So, if you’re asking whether the Patriots are good enough to win the Super Bowl with a below-average defense, the answer is yes. Ten to 15 years ago, I would’ve said no – and I would’ve had the numbers to prove it – but the NFL has changed dramatically. Look at it this way: The 2000 Ravens won the Super Bowl with the then-greatest defense of all time and an offense anchored by quarterbacks Trent Dilfer and Tony Banks, who combined for a mediocre 20 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. A decade later, you can now win under the exact opposite scenario – outstanding offense and crappy defense.

While I’m still not sure whether the Patriots are incredibly lucky or if this is just a lousy year for the NFL (perhaps an extreme case in the league’s never-ending quest for parity), I’m leaning toward the latter. We haven’t seen a truly elite team since the ’04 Patriots and I don’t think we’ll see another one for quite some time – definitely not this season.

As Parcells would say, the Patriots are what they are, which is a team with an outstanding quarterback and a shaky defense, and if recent history is any indication, it might just be good enough to win another Super Bowl.