What to Watch For: Patriots at Panthers

Friday, November 15, 2013

John Rooke, GoLocalWorcester Sports Editor

Familiar foes, these guys are not. But the Monday Night match-up between the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers doesn't lack for interest.

To begin with, it will be just the 5th time in the regular season (and 6th overall, counting Super Bowl XXXVIII) the two teams have met, and the first time the Patriots have played in Charlotte, NC since 2005. On September 18th of that year, the Patriots lost to the Panthers 27-17. More recently, the last time they faced each other came at Gillette Stadium in 2009, and NE managed a 20-10 win. Since then, the Panthers have not had a winning season, with their current 6-3 mark the best they've managed. Add to the mix a current five-game winning streak, and perhaps you can understand why Carolina can't wait for Monday.

It's a big game. And it could be a validating, defining moment, coming off of a 10-9 road win at San Francisco last Sunday.

The Panthers have reached the playoffs just twice since losing the Super Bowl to New England 10 years ago. This year, having won five straight, they're right in the playoff chase, trailing NFC South Division leader New Orleans by one game. They feature a tough defense with a solid front seven, and an offense that won't "wow" anyone, but is capable of controlling the clock and grinding it out...usually with some success.

They've got a former Heisman Trophy winner at QB in Cam Newton, who at 6-5 and 250 pounds is built like a linebacker, but runs like a running back. Newton had a sensational rookie year coming out of Auburn in 2011, and while there has been little team success, his game has solidified. Newton can certainly throw it, with great arm strength and accuracy, but he may do the most damage with his legs. In that rookie season, he actually rushed for 14 touchdowns - a great year for most great running backs, unheard of for signal-callers.

By the way...his nickname is "Superman," if you weren't aware. The Patriots certainly are.

Coming off of a bye week, as the Patriots are, may be the dose of Kryptonite they need to subdue Newton and the Panthers. New England is 10-3 under Bill Belichick coming off of their usual mid-season week of rest, having last lost to Pittsburgh coming out of the bye in 2011. The Patriots have gone 8-0 in the second half of a season four times and 7-1 three times under Belichick. They're 42-9 in regular-season games against NFC teams since 2001...and Tom Brady is 13-4 on Monday nights with 41 TD passes and 14 INTs. Compelling numbers, sure. But with time to heal some of the injured, and to prepare for a largely unfamiliar opponent, history also favors the Patriots in another way. Only one other time in Belichick's tenure has the team had 15 days to prepare between games during the regular season, and ironically, it took place back in 2001 against the Panthers. New England won that game, 38-6.

They'll be hoping for a similar result Monday night. Carolina will, of course, have plenty to say about that, as the teams get acquainted. After all, despite the Patriots' historical success and Carolina's recent surge...they really don't know each other that well.

Control the Clock

Here's the thing...Carolina is Number One in the NFL time of possession category. Which means, they hold onto the ball longer than anyone else, almost 34 minutes out of the 60 per game. The Patriots are at the other end of the spectrum, just 25th in possession time (28:38) per game. As mentioned earlier, the Panthers want to grind it out, and will feel the best defense may be an effective, time-consuming, clock-chewing offense...which would also keep the ball out of TB12's hands. The Patriots love to defer the opening kickoff if they win the coin toss, but perhaps taking the ball and tryng to work for a quick score might get Carolina out of its' comfort zone. It might...but the Panthers' defense also leads the NFL in forcing three-and-outs.

Man Up in the Middle

With a ground game that has had more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL since 2008, the Panthers make no secret of wanting to run the ball. DeAngelo Williams leads a trio of capable running backs that can - and will - hit the middle of a New England defense softened by their injuries. The Pats will need tackles Isaac Sopoaga, Joe Vellano and Chris Jones to play their best games, and LB's Dont'a Hightower and Brandon Spikes to fill the gaps and stop the run...or they won't be able to stop the Panthers' offense - and the clock. Keeping Newton hemmed in the pocket and not allowing him to roll out on the edges to make plays with his legs is also a big key to NE's success.

Protect and Serve

With a physical front four along the lines of what Cincinnati and the New York Jets possess (two Patriot conquerors this season), the offensive line simply has to keep TB12 off of the turf and give him some time to find his targets. DE Charles Johnson has 21 sacks and seven forced fumbles in his last 22 games. It's good news to have a healthy Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and perhaps even RB Shane Vereen (who has been out with a broken wrist since the season opener) available to throw to, but it won't do any good if Brady doesn't have time in the pocket. Expect NE to exercise some no-huddle, hurry-up plays to dilute the Panthers' rush, and some short passes to keep the sticks moving and Carolina's young superstar-to-be LB Luke Kuechly guessing. If the defense forces a turnover or two - and they've forced at least one in 36 straight games - the offense has to deliver six instead of three.

Projection:

Patriots 17, Panthers 16

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