What to Watch For: Patriots vs. Dolphins
Friday, October 25, 2013
It's been a long time since the New England Patriots found themselves playing second fiddle in the AFC East.
The last time the Patriots lost two straight games to divisional foes came in 2006, when four weeks separated losses to the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins. Seven years later, New England could make it two losses in two games if they find a way to lose to these Dolphins, who started the year by winning their first three games - and losing their last three. So, the Patriots might not know what they're in for this Sunday.
Before the current season began, there was some question as to which divisional opponent was "closest" to the Patriots within the AFC East. While NE was generally considered to be the prohibitive favorite, Miami was also thought to be the closest to the Patriots in terms of overall talent and momentum coming into the year, especially with the Dolphins aggressiveness in reshaping their roster during the previous off-season.
The picture has changed a bit since the initial perception, if only that the rest of the division seems to be just as close - if not closer - to the Patriots as the Dolphins might be. The Jets own a win over the Pats, Buffalo played them close (23-21) in the opening week...and now it's Miami's turn. Miami lost to the Bills last week, after an off-week...reeling with three straight defeats following three impressive opening wins. Where the Dolphins seem to be lacking, there are questions as to whether the Patriots can take advantage - like in the passing game, where Miami has had trouble protecting QB Ryan Tannehill. Can New England apply the rush, or cover their receivers {ieffectively? With the rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, those are very much big questions.
After six weeks last year, each team in the AFC East was 3-3. The Patriots eventually pulled away, and won their 9th division title in the previous 10 years. This year, while many still favor New England, the Jets have proven to be a bit better than previously thought, and the Bills at least seem competitive. What about Miami?
Are they as good as a 3-0 start would indicate, or as bad as losing three in a row might show? Either way, Tom Brady is 10-1 against Miami at home, and the team is a resounding 61-16 against the AFC East since 2001. The Patriots will find out if the Dolphins have closed that divisional gap at all, and deserve more than just a second fiddle standing...starting Sunday in Foxboro.
Circle the Wagons
After losing a game to the Jets last week on an obscure blocking rule, the Patriots know they really have no one to blame but themselves for the loss. Expect New England to come out of the gate with a purpose, but Miami could have something to say about that. Brady threw for a less-than-50% completion rate against New York - the 2nd time in the past three weeks, and 3rd time this season overall - so if anyone has something to prove, it might be TB12. Are his skills eroding, or is he just not getting enough help? Rob Gronkowski can't catch them all...so a commitment to the run, which might have been given up a little early last week to the Jets, needs to be part of the equation. Getting injured guys like Danny Amendola back on offense, and Aqib Talib back on defense would help. A lot.
Keep Him Clean
Along those lines to committing to the run...if the Patriots can do that, it negates a Miami pass rush that can be very good, DE Cameron Wake is healthy after battlling nagging injuries, and could prove to be trouble for the Pats' tackles. Brady has been sacked 13 times over the past three weeks (with two losses), so the offensive line must be wary of Wake and rookie Dion Jordan in particular. One other note - Miami defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle came from Cincinnati, brought the Bengals' schemes and formations with him, and has an athletic defensive front to work with similar to the one Cincinnati presently has. The Bengals' defense put tremendous pressure on Brady, and held the Patriots without a touchdown two weeks ago.
Bring the Heat
Miami QB Ryan Tannehill, while athletic, mobile and a seemingly good head on his shoulders...has had difficulty keeping his head ON his shoulders. Tannehill has been sacked 26 times in six games, and things have been so bad on the line, they traded for former Baltimore starting tackle Bryant McKinnie this week to provide some help. The Dolphins seem to be able to run, but have had trouble committing to it with offensive coordinator Mike Sherman calling the shots. Tannehill loves the middle of the field, so expect him to look for WR Brian Hartline - a lot. If the Patriots can provide a steady rush, and clog the middle for Hartline, it might be tough for the Fish to avoid a squish.
Projection:
Patriots 27, Dolphins 17
Follow John on Twitter, @JRBroadcaster
Related Articles
- Jets fly past Patriots, 30-27 in OT
- What to Watch For: Patriots at Jets, Round Two
- Patriots march past the Saints, 30-27
Follow us on Pinterest Google + Facebook Twitter See It Read It