Finneran: WRONG AGAIN
Friday, September 25, 2015
Honesty and humility being rare but very good things in our bragging and bumptious world, I’m obliged to point out that the politics and campaigns of various presidential candidates have revealed my woeful ignorance. It is time to repent………
Among any number of blunders and erroneous assumptions I’ve made, here are a few gems:
- My prediction that Hillary Clinton would cruise to the nomination unhindered and that the words “Madam President” would no longer sound far-fetched. I thought that both the Clinton name and the Clinton machine would intimidate prospective challengers and that “the first woman President” factor would unleash political energy comparable to the 2008/2012 campaigns of President Obama as our “first black President”. I was wrong. My bad.
- My prediction that Donald Trump would implode as a loud obnoxious braggart and hypocrite. His staying power thus far has revealed the breadth and depth of polarization in the country. It has also revealed my stupidity regarding rational acts. It is a mistake to always expect rationality in people and in politics. I was wrong. My bad, again.
- My assumption that the Bush machine would vacuum up both the money and the players needed to run a winning hand all the way to the nomination. Let’s be blunt about this—Jeb Bush has struggled to present a compelling campaign. He has not been prepared in his responses to easily anticipated questions---such as his brother’s decision to invade Iraq. That is not a trick question. It is not “gotcha” journalism from the claque of political lefties who dominate the political press. That’s a question that Mr. and Mrs. Ordinary American would pose. Why he would stumble and “misspeak” is beyond me. And why as a former fairly successful, and fairly conservative Governor he would struggle to stand out from the crowd is also beyond me. I don’t underestimate the opposition to dynastic families at this point in our nation’s history. The Adams, Roosevelt, or Kennedy families would not cruise to repetitive election today. Today’s emphasis is on novelty not experience and now everyone has a “sell by” freshness date. Thus the Clinton and Bush challenges. And while Jeb’s rhetorical ability was never going to be compared to Lincoln or Churchill, I expected more than I’ve seen thus far. I was wrong. My bad, again.
Now of course, like a degenerate drunken gambler, I choose to double down on some further predictions. Just don’t bet the rent money on anything that follows…………..
- Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President. Bernie Sanders will not be the nominee. Take it to the bank from a man who knows………UNLESS, unless, Joe Biden jumps into the race with a pledge to serve one term as President and with Elizabeth Warren as his chosen Vice-Presidential candidate. Republicans and Independents might scoff at the notion but that would be a formidable ticket for the Democrats, scooping up both the moderate and activist factions of the party, enthusiastically aided and abetted by a heavily biased press.
- Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee. The field has already begun to shrink—witness Scott Walker’s withdrawal from the race. The field will shrink even further. As the field shrinks those candidates still standing will have every incentive to take on Trump. The incentives include massive press coverage, a demonstration of “presidential toughness”, and a desperation to live, driven by the calendar. We are now only a few months away from the early voting. Every day and every debate presents a significant opportunity to the other candidates. It is beyond irresistible to take on the Trump mystique. And there’s plenty of ammunition at hand. Watch for Trump to be taken down, perhaps suddenly, perhaps slowly, skillfully portrayed as your “drunken uncle”, full of opinions and hot air. Trump is rife with glaring contradictions. And while Barack Obama may have merrily skated by a similar slew of contradictions in 2008 and 2012, he was actively sheltered by the press. Trump will have no such shelter.
- Watch Rubio and Kasich. Kasich had a lackluster second debate. He’ll be better next time. He’s been too good a Governor and he’s too good a pol to struggle again. Rubio has had strong performances in both debates. He’s been knowledgeable, forceful, and articulate. He’s a rare and natural talent. Kasich/ Rubio or Rubio/Kasich would make a very strong ticket. It would be a nightmare ticket for the Democrats to confront.
Tom Finneran is the former Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives, served as the head the Massachusetts Biotechnology Council, and was a longstanding radio voice in Boston radio.
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