Horowitz: Biden Gets In
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Joe Biden
Echoing the historian John Meacham’s recent book, Biden asserted, “We are in a battle for the soul of the nation,” casting himself as the best candidate to restore American values, which he believes are dangerously threatened by another four years of Donald Trump. As the 76-year-old former Vice-President said, “If we give Donald Trump eight years in the White House, he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation,. Who we are. And I cannot stand by and watch that happen."
Biden is following up his video announcement with a full campaign schedule this week, including a speech at a Pittsburgh union hall and visits to early primary states. Despite a lot of mainly hot air from some pundits and from operatives from primary opponents arguing Biden’s best day in the race would be his first day, he begins the campaign as the frontrunner for the nomination. He is by no means a prohibitive favorite and someone else may very well end up as the nominee. But I would rather be in Biden’s position than in that of any of the other 20 or so candidates.
Biden brings a number of strengths to this race. He begins the race with a favorable rating among Democratic primary voters of more than 75% and is perceived by those same voters as a strong general election candidate in a presidential cycle in which so far the single most important quality primary voters are looking for is someone who can defeat Trump. Serving as Vice-President for President Obama, who remains overwhelmingly popular with Democratic Primary voters, gives Biden a potent joint record of accomplishment to undergird his candidacy. He is also an accomplished debater with invaluable experience debating in high stakes situations, including acquitting himself well in two national Vice-Presidential debates against Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan respectively. And Biden not only possesses a real empathy for the struggles of his fellow Americans and a capacity to relate to the middle class; he effective communicates it, scoring consistently high on measures of empathy such as ‘cares about people like me’, which often correlate strongly with vote choice.
To be sure, Biden faces a number of challenges as well. He often comes across as every bit as old as his 76 years, which may result in some voters believing he is too old for a job as demanding as president. The former Vice-President served in the United States Senate for 36 years, amassing a number of votes that will be attacked by his rivals, including his championing of tough drug sentences and his solid support for the credit card industry, a major employer in Delaware. While he did demonstrate fundraising prowess in his initial 24 hours, raising more than $6 million, the former vice-president’s reliance on traditional democratic big donors and bundlers leaves him open to criticism that he is “in the pocket of special interests.” Biden will also need to sustain this kind of fundraising on a level he never has before.
All-in all, however, Biden is a truly formidable candidate for the nomination. He benefits from a crowded field, which will likely keep the vote split among a number of his opponents. This is particularly the case since the field tilts strongly leftward, providing a more traditional liberal like Biden a opportunity to solidify the still more than 40% of primary voters that identify as moderate or conservative.
It also just may turn out to be the case that the sense of stability, competence, and basic decency that Joe Biden represents is the kind of marked contrast to a president that represents none of those things that voters are looking for in 2020. It is sure too early to know. But it would be a big mistake to count Joe Biden out.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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