Horowitz: Mueller Report - Nuanced But Still Devastating
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
But, over time, it is likely to have a deservedly negative impact on President Trump’s political fortunes, serving as a brake on any growth in his support--growth he needs to be re-elected given his dismal approval ratings and favorability With all the coverage of Trump’s strong support with his base, what often gets lost is he needs to add substantially to his base to win..
One definite finding of the report is that Russia meddled substantially in the 2016 presidential election, doing so in unprecedented ways and to assist the Trump candidacy. As Mueller spells out, “The Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping and systematic fashion.” It was good to see Attorney General Barr embrace this conclusion. Even better, at least so far. President Trump has not sought to continue to cast doubt on this plain fact--one long ago confirmed by all his hand-picked intelligence chiefs. Let us hope that the president will now at least give the people in his Administration responsible for ensuring that a repeat of foreign interference in 2020 is prevented, more running room. This issue is ripe for an robust bi-partisan approach with a new sense of urgency, especially given the Mueller team revelation that the Russians actually hacked into a Florida voting system.
It is both good for the president and good for the nation that the Special Council was not able to establish a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. When Trump and the Attorney General said there was no collusion found, however, this is highly misleading. The Special Counsel specifically says in the report they were dealing with the narrower question of whether there was sufficient evidence beyond a reasonable doubt of a criminal conspiracy. No judgment is made about collusion, which is a broader and more nebulous term without legal meaning.
Further, among the Special Counsel’s finding are that the Trump campaign welcomed assistance from the Russians and knew about some of the activities in advance. While this is evidently not a crime, it is still highly unethical and troubling behavior. Watching Rudy Giuliani twist himself into a pretzel trying to defend it on the Sunday shows would have been amusing, if the subject was not so serious. One task for Congress going forward is to pass new laws that make any welcoming of foreign electoral assistance in all cases, but especially when it comes from an adversary, illegal. We must build in more bright clear legal lines of demarcation to safeguard the integrity of our elections.
Most damaging to the president is the careful detailing of 10 instances of potentially criminal efforts to obstruct justice. Contrary to the mischaracterization by the attorney general, the report explicitly says that the Justice Department’s existing policy of ruling out the indictment of a sitting president was a major factor in their decision not to make a ‘traditional prosecutorial judgment.” Indeed, the Special Counsel goes even further, mentioning that they are preserving all the evidence, leaving open the possibility of the president being indicted after he leaves office and touching on Congress’ role in exploring the obstruction of justice question.
Mueller’s bottom line on the issue of obstruction of justice is telling: “If we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the president clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state,” Mr. Mueller wrote. “Based on the facts and the applicable legal standards, however, we are unable to reach that judgment. The evidence we obtained about the president’s actions and intent presents difficult issues that prevent us from conclusively determining that no criminal conduct occurred.”
In an understated, but pointed and devastating observation, Mueller continues, “The President's efforts to influence the investigation were mostly unsuccessful, but that is largely because the persons who surrounded the President declined to carry out orders or accede to his requests.”
If the Democrats don’t overplay their hand and move to impeachment, the upcoming Congressional hearings ,which will in all likelihood feature the testimony of Bob Mueller, among others, are tremendous opportunities to bring the salient points of the Special Counsel's Report home to the American people--most of whom will be appalled by President Trump’s documented obstructive actions and persistent falsehoods. These telling details will fall on mainly receptive ears because the manifest unfitness for the oval office that this report details reinforces the major doubts that a majority of Americans already have about the president. That is the likely political damage that this report will cause the president. It is damage, unfortunately, he has well-earned.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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