“The Sunday Political Brunch”—April 10

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Mark Curtis, Senior Political Analyst

The Presidential campaign is headed for a collision course over the next two and a half weeks. Either there will be great clarity on the nominee for each political party; or, there will be chaos and confusion. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“The Cheese Platter” – Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) won in the Wisconsin Republican Primary; and, Sen. Bernice Sanders (I-VT) won on the Democratic side, both by big margins. Cruz and Sanders have each won most of their respective primaries in the past few weeks, and clearly have the momentum. Sanders also won the Wyoming Caucus on Saturday. But a turn to the Northeast states may help Donald Trump; and the prevalence of super delegates will continue to keep Hillary Clinton ahead of Sanders.

“New York, New York” – Donald Trump is a native New Yorker, so it would be unthinkable and catastrophic if he lost his home state primary on April 19th. Right now that looks highly unlikely. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has it Trump 54 percent; Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) 21 percent; and, Cruz 20 percent.

“They Called Her Carpetbagger” – It would also be disastrous if Hillary Clinton lost her home state of New York. Even though she’s not really from there, she has won two Senate races and the 2008 Presidential Primary in the Empire State. Right now Real Clear Politics has it Clinton 54 percent; to Sanders 41 percent. With ten days before the vote, that gap could close to a more uncomfortable margin for the former Secretary of State.

“The Road to Pennsylvania” – The next big round of primaries is on April 26th. Voters in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Delaware will cast ballots, but the big prize is delegate-rich Pennsylvania. Real Clear Politics has it Trump 40 percent; Cruz 26 percent; and, Kasich 25 percent. On the Democratic side, the Keystone State is polling Clinton 53 percent; Sanders 35 percent.

“Over and Out” – It’s hard to imagine John Kasich staying in the race after Pennsylvania. It’s an industrial “rust belt” state much like Kasich’s neighboring Ohio, and is his last place to gain any traction. If he doesn’t; he’s out. But as I’ve said many times, Kasich is still a likely choice for the vice presidential slot on the ticket.

“Infighting” – The biggest surprise this past week was the feud on the Democratic side for a change. Bernie Sanders saying Hillary Clinton “is not qualified” to be President, and Clinton saying Sanders “does not do his homework” on key issues. Yes, the infighting is likely to simmer down, but Republicans are sure to happy that the spotlight is on the feud on the other side of the aisle for a change. You hardly heard about Trump and Cruz (or their wives) all week!

“Almost Heaven; West Virginia!” – Mark May 10 on your calendar. The Mountain State primary usually doesn’t matter as the nominees are normally picked by then. But this year, neither side may have a candidate with enough delegates to win the nomination by May 10. The last time the West Virginia had any significance was 2008 when Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by 42 points. The tables have turned, though. The latest Metro News Poll has it Sanders 57 percent; Clinton 29 percent in West Virginia. On the GOP side Trump leads Cruz 40 to 20 percent.

“Trump Cancels California?” – Much was made late in the week about Donald Trump canceling a campaign trip to California and that there might be dissention in his staff. Don’t make too much of this. California’s primary is on June 7, so Trump is wise to focus on the states issues immediately ahead. But, I bet there is continuing consternation among his staffers over the continuing surge of Ted Cruz.

Who should be the Vice Presidential nominees in both parties? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

“The Sunday Political Brunch”—April 10

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