“Who’s on First” in the Democratic Presidential Race? Sunday Political Brunch - August 25, 2019

Sunday, August 25, 2019

Mark Curtis, GoLocalWorcester Contributor

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

We've had two rounds of debates, with a third in just weeks. The polls are all over the place, and some candidates are now dropping out. Where is the Democratic presidential nomination process going? Let's "brunch" on that this week, by analyzing the latest Real Clear Politics composite poll:

"Biden Still Holds the Lead" – Former Vice President Joe Biden still leads the pack with 28.8 percent of the vote. That's a 12.8 percentage point lead. To some, that is puzzling, as Biden had a lackluster performance in the first debate, but was somewhat better in the second. Still, he served six terms in the U.S. Senate, and eight years as VP. His resume is way ahead of the pack, which may explain his consistent lead since the race began.

"Bern, Baby, Bern!" – Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) Vermont is at 16 percent and has been one of the most consistent performers in the race. His poll numbers have ranged between 16 and 20 percent. He has a base from his 2016 effort to knock off Hillary Clinton, but you have to wonder if he can get any traction beyond his most ardent, hard-core supporters. Perhaps more than anyone else, Sanders engages young voters, but they turned away in droves last time when he did not win the nomination.

"Warren Warning" – Elizabeth Warren is third with 15.4 percent of voters. Like Sanders, she has been in that consistent 15 to 20 percent range with one big notable exception. Her numbers spiked high after both debates, in which she performed forcefully and skillfully. A lot of analysts believe Warren won both debates, and I would concur. Even though her numbers have dropped a bit, look for another spike when the candidates debate again on national TV on September 12.

"Harris Fades" – Perhaps the most shocking change has been the drop for Sen. Kamala Harris (D) California, who spiked after her sharp performance in the first debate when she aggressively took on Biden. It was a very good night for her. Unfortunately, her second debate was just the opposite. Biden defended himself far better, and Harris had trouble explaining her recently unveiled health care plan. Then she got pummeled by Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) Hawaii. Harris is down to 7.4 percent in the RCP composite, and even dropped to 5 percent in the latest CNN poll. This after pulling strong double-digit jumps after her first debate.

"Boosting Buttigieg" – Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) South Bend, Indiana rose from the ashes of initial polls, and is now in fifth place with a steady 5 percent of the vote. People like his speaking style and his personal story, whether they intend to vote for him or not. But, let's face it, it would be hard for him to rocket into contention with poll numbers this low. His third debate may have to be a deciding point in whether he stays in the race or not. He's been a good fundraiser, and is well liked in New Hampshire, so maybe he rolls the dice for the long haul.

"Goodbye Hickenlooper, Maybe" – Former Denver Mayor and former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) Colorado has quit the Democratic race for president, but his name may not be out of the headlines for long. Hickenlooper is a good bet to run for the seat currently held by Sen. Cory Gardner (R) Colorado. Gardner is seen by many as one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the Senate this year. Hickenlooper is a more moderate pragmatist on the Democratic side, who warned that nominating someone too far to the left could ensure a second Trump term. Keep an eye on what he does.

"Goodbye Inslee?" – Gov. Jay Inslee (D) Washington has also ended his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Instead, he will run for a third term as governor. But keep an eye on him, too. He was the strongest voice on the issue of climate change, and could be a leading candidate for Energy or Interior Secretary if a Democrat wins the White House.

"Dream Team 2020?" -- Let's just assume for now that Biden is the nominee. I think some of the lower-polling candidates are staying in the race because they are positioning themselves as a vice-presidential pick or for a cabinet slot. One could picture an urban Mayor Pete Buttigieg being picked for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. If Biden tops the ticket, I'm betting he picks Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) Minnesota as his VP, or names her Attorney General. Given the instability of the Trump cabinet, I bet the Democratic nominee starts promising cabinet spots during the campaign, which would be unprecedented. Sen. Elizabeth Warren as Secretary of State or Treasury? Who knows?

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia and its five neighboring states, and most of the Washington, D.C. media market. He is a National Contributing Political Writer for The White House Patch.