2011 Patriots: To Sign, or Not to Sign?

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

John Rooke, GoLocalProv Sports Editor

With the NFL apparently finding labor peace between its players and owners, and actual football being played becoming more of a reality – who will actually be on the field for the Patriots this season?

As we mentioned last week, free agents will be the first order of business for every NFL team…not just their own, but including players throughout the league. Monday afternoon, teams began sorting through their options of who to keep, who to let go, and where can they turn to fulfill needs. Let’s first look again at the Patriots’ list of free agents:

OT Matt Light
OT Quinn Ojinnaka
OG Logan Mankins
RB Kevin Faulk
RB Fred Taylor
RB Sammy Morris
RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis (restricted)
DT Gerard Warren
LB Tracy White
DB Kyle Arrington (restricted)
DB Brandon McGowan
DB Josh Barrett
DB Jarrad Page
PK Shayne Graham

Most likely to be Patriots – Mankins, Green-Ellis, Arrington

With new rules on franchising players in a restricted free-agency contract status, expect that tag to stick with Mankins. Now, signing his tendered offer may be a different story, but the Patriots do control his future for at least this year. If he wants to play any time soon, he’ll be a Patriot. Mankins also stands to make a lot more money ($10 million), so any philosophical differences between player and ownership should be softened by a new cushion of cash. Green-Ellis was merely the team’s leading rusher, for more than 1000 yards last season, while Arrington filled in quite capably in the defensive backfield after Leigh Bodden went down early. Green-Ellis isn’t a slam dunk, however…other teams could show interest and sign him to an offer sheet, forcing the Patriots to match it.

Possible Pats – Light, Faulk, Warren, McGowan

Matt Light should probably be on the list above with the “most likely” players, yet there is some doubt as to whether he’ll sign with the team for what is certain to be a reduced offer, or actually try to gauge his worth on the free agent open market. Best guess – is that the 33-year old, 11-year veteran re-signs with New England, and provides a way for the team to work rookie tackle Nate Solder into the mix more slowly. It’s hard to imagine Kevin Faulk playing for another team, and so if he plays at all (following his knee injury and rehab from last year), it should be with the Patriots. The team loves him, fans love him. And the feeling is still mutual. Gerard Warren contributed 3.5 sacks and 28 tackles last season, and proved to be more than adequate as a run-stopper and defensive line compliment to Vince Wilfork. With Ty Warren (no relation) returning from injury, there is at least a reasonable chance Gerard could be back, provided no other team overwhelms the soon-to-be 33-year-old lineman. Brandon McGowan showed early flashes last season of physical play, before having his year ended by a chest injury. His loss resulted in the team’s pick up of safety Jarrad Page.

Other Patriot Possibles – Page, Ojinnaka, White

Realistically, you can’t count out ANY of the remaining players on the Patriots’ list of free agents. Of those however, Page, Quinn Ojinnaka and Tracy White represent the strongest possibilities to return and at least be a part of training camp. They’re familiar with the team and system, know the playbook, and in the case of Ojinnaka, there’s a definite need for depth. White is intriguing as a linebacker, coming in as an injury replacement late last season – and with Tully Banta-Cain’s apparent injury (abdomen) set to possibly keep him out until the start of the regular season, White could easily find himself a role.

The Patriots come into the 2011 season with 63 players currently under contract. Nine new rookie deals will bring the total to 72 players, and if restricted free agents like Green-Ellis and Arrington are signed, the Patriots will have room for up to 16 more free agents to fill out their roster to the maximum of 90 players allowed. Rookie free agents are included in this group, and those signings should move quickly with a lot of homework done since the April draft. As for potential veteran free agents, based on what the Patriots did last season, you might expect the team to “lay low,” in order to save salary cap space (about $7 million under the $120 million limit). Areas to target include linebacker, offensive line and wide receiver.

Player predictions are just that – predictions. Injuries, salaries and playing styles all factor into the decision-making. When considering who might be on the field for the 2011 Patriots, it’s probably best to keep this in mind…when has Bill Belichick ever been predictable?