Don’t think too deep: This series is all about toughness

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Mike Parente, GoLocalProv Sports Editor

Celtics in 6.

We might as well get the easy part out of the way. As far as explaining how I arrived at this conclusion, don’t ask.

I’m not a big stat guy. I don’t have a ton of numbers to back this up. I didn’t roll with the nerds in high school. I didn’t roll with the jocks either, but my clique could still stuff a dweeb or two in his locker without looking out of place.

The point is it comes down to toughness for me. Without crunching a single number or peeking at any of the match-ups, I can unequivocally state that Boston is a much tougher team than Los Angeles, which is why I’m picking the Celtics to beat the Lakers in the NBA Finals (beginning tonight at the Staples Center).

Again, no real logic is involved here, and I could be entirely wrong when I say Boston is currently leading the entire universe in gut-check victories this postseason, but it sure as hell seems that way.

To Los Angeles’ credit, winning Game 6 of the Western Conference finals in Phoenix took stones the size of bowling balls, especially considering the road team hadn’t won a game in that series until that night.

At the same time, Boston has traveled a much more difficult road to get here, having to deal with Dwayne Wade (Miami), LeBron James (Cleveland) and Dwight Howard (Orlando) in separate playoff series. Those were three of the top 25 scorers in the NBA this season, with Wade ranking first, LeBron fourth and Howard 23rd. Few teams have won off the strength of one great player – even Michael Jordan’s Bulls had a legitimate supporting cast – but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for one great player to wreak havoc in a short series. The fact that Boston dispatched of three teams with arguably the best player in each series is astounding. The Lakers can’t say they’ve done that.

Whether any of this “toughness” crap actually matters remains to be seen. Maybe I’m wrong and perhaps pure talent will win out in the end. That’s assuming you think the Lakers are more talented. Again, I’m not sure Los Angeles stacks up one through 12. Even if you side with LeBron in the “Best Player in the NBA” argument, you should at least recognize Kobe Bryant is the best players in this series – hands down.

Of course, the Heat, Cavaliers and Magic also had the best player in their respective playoff series against Boston, but the Celtics had the next best four, which is why they’re in the Finals and everyone else will be home popping Pringles tonight during Game 1. In fairness, this series is far more balanced than the others; Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom make up the best supporting cast Boston has seen in the playoffs, so it’s not going to be as simple as shutting down one player.

In the end, though, it comes down to matchups. If the Lakers are smart, they’ll put Bryant on Rajon Rondo because they cannot afford to let Rondo run wild like everyone else did. The problem is that more than likely leaves Fisher guarding Ray Allen, which could be disastrous for Los Angeles depending on your interpretation of the NBA’s chicken or egg theory – in other words, can Allen and others get shots if Rondo is shut down, or will Allen go nuts regardless if his only obstacle is Fisher?

The “toughness” theory rears its ugly head again when we start talking about the matchups in the paint. They say Gasol is tougher now than he was two years ago when these teams last met in the Finals. I’ll believe it when I see it. Assuming he keeps his mouth shut and avoids another technical foul (fat chance of that happening), Kendrick Perkins could give Gasol fits in this series. The major difference is Gasol’s skill level is higher than that of, say, Howard, who has no post-up game whatsoever. On his best night, Gasol can do a mean Hakeem Olajuwon impression, but he can be rattled, too, if he’s punched in the mouth.

This may literally come down to which team can will itself to victory. As trite as that sounds, it’s the truth. The way Kobe took over Game 6 in Phoenix is remarkable, and he’s done it plenty of times before – even to Boston. Out of nowhere, he could go off in the final two or three minutes of an otherwise close game to help Los Angeles steal a victory, and that victory might be the difference-maker in a seven-game series. This one’s too close to call, so the intangibles play an even bigger factor than usual.

When you talk toughness, the first thing that should come to mind is being able to win on the road. No team in the playoffs has done that better than Boston. A split in Los Angeles this week puts the Celtics in the driver’s seat. Then we’ll see if the Lakers are tough enough to turn the tables when the series shifts to Boston.

Forget everything you’ve been spoon-fed since this matchup came to fruition last week. You don’t need an abacus to figure this one out, nor do you need anything other than a huge set of marbles to win. This series will hinge on which team is tougher, and that’s why my money is on the Celtics.