NFL Divisional Round Weekend Preview

Saturday, January 11, 2020

John Crowe, Sports Contributor

The Ravens look to advance to AFC Championship

Well, don’t say we didn’t warn you about the first round of the NFL Playoffs! Last week, we told you beware of the road teams in the Wild Card Round. And lo and behold, three of the four road teams came up victorious with a pair of huge upsets as sixth-seeded Tennessee and Minnesota marched into Foxboro and New Orleans to upset the third seeded Patriots and Saints respectively. Only the Houston Texans escaped, barely, past Buffalo after rallying from 16 points down to win in overtime.

So, what should we expect in round 2? Well, first things first. The four home teams are there for a reason. They’re all division champions with 11 or more victories and well rested with the week off. Ironically enough, the team that comes in most banged up is the team that’s been most dominant – the Baltimore Ravens. Running back Mark Ingram is still gimpy with a sore calf, injured in week 16 against the Browns.

In the past nine playoff seasons, the home teams have gone 27-9. In every year except two (2018 and 2015 where all four home teams won), at least one road team has won. In only two years, 2016 and 2010, did two road teams walkaway victorious.

What will happen this time? Find out in our Divisional Round Preview.

Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com

Vikings at 49ers (Saturday 4:35 pm on NBC – 49ers favored by 7)

The Vikings slowed down the Saints one week ago to advance this far. But, can the Vikes do it again? They ranked 5th in points allowed (18.9) during the regular season while the 49ers (13-3) averaged a second-best 29.9 points per game. Will it be the irresistible force or the immovable object that wins out? Dalvin Cook toted the rock 28 times last week, good for 94 yards and a pair of touchdowns and a repeat could be a tasty recipe for a San Francisco treat for the Vikings (11-6).

Lost in all the shine on San Francisco is this – this is Jimmy Garoppolo’s first playoff start. All Garoppolo has done this year has thrown 27 touchdowns and a 102 quarterback rating. Not too shabby. The last time a #6 seed won in the Divisional Round at the #1 seed was back in 2010 when the Jets waltzed into Foxboro to upset the Patriots.

The Vikings will win if – Dalvin Cook gets 125+ yards from scrimmage.

The 49ers will win if – George Kittle catches 5 or more passes for 60+ yards.

Prediction: 49ers 24-21

Titans at Ravens (Saturday 8:15 pm on CBS – Ravens favored by 9.5)

Last week against the Patriots, it was all about Derrick Henry for the Titans (10-7). Quarterback Ryan Tannehill didn’t have to do much other than hand it off to Henry while he totaled up 182 yards rushing. Tannehill will need to do more than complete 8 passes for 72 yards this week to keep up with the high-powered Ravens offense. That offense for Baltimore (14-2) has its top running back, Mark Ingram questionable with a calf injury. But whether he plays or not, don’t expect the Ravens to give up the running attack that saw them pile up nearly 210 yards per game.

Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards can handle the load if Ingram can’t go. Another injury to watch: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews was limited in practice Wednesday due to his on-going ankle injury that saw him miss the week 17 finale against the Steelers.

The Titans will win if – The Titans can hold the Ravens to 50% or less in the red zone touchdowns vs. field goals.

The Ravens will win if – Lamar Jackson has a mistake-free, turnover-free game.

Prediction: Ravens 31-17

Texans at Chiefs (Sunday 3:05 pm on CBS – Chiefs favored by 9.5)

Revenge time in Kansas City for the Chiefs (13-3). KC blew a 17-3 lead, losing 31-24 in week 6’s home match-up against the Texans (11-6). A fast start would do wonders for Houston, who probably won’t be able to escape another slow start like in that earlier game or like last week’s Wild Card game against Buffalo. Back in October, the Texans ran the ball for 192 yards, including 116 from Carlos Hyde in keeping the ball for almost 40 minutes.

The x-factor could be just how banged up Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is. Kelce missed a portion of Wednesday’s practice with knee issues. Something to watch as we head towards Sunday. Also, how do the Chiefs deal with DeAndre Hopkins. KC was tops in the league in limiting receiving yards to wide receivers. Finally, the Chiefs are #1 in third down efficiency at nearly 48% while the Texans defense is 31st in stopping team’s on third down.

The Texans will win if – DeAndre Hopkins catches more than 7 passes for 70 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs will win if – Damien Williams runs for 75 or more yards.

Prediction: 30-21 Chiefs

Seahawks at Packers (Sunday 6:40 pm on FOX – Packers favored by 4)

There’s something about these Seahawks (12-5). Maybe it’s Beast Mode, Marshawn Lynch returning to the fold. Maybe it’s the youth and exuberance of wide receiver DK Metcalf. Or maybe, it’s quarterback Russell Wilson making his way towards a second Super Bowl title. The Packers (13-3) are keeping their eyes on defensive end Kenny Clark and his back injury. Clark had 62 tackles and six sacks during the regular season. Remember the last time these two teams met in the playoffs in 2015? Seattle rallied to a 28-22 overtime victory after being down 19-7 in the fourth quarter to win the NFC Championship.

And of course, who could forget Matt Hasselback’s infamous “we want the ball and we’re gonna score” declaration to start overtime in 2003’s Wild Card game before throwing a game-ending pick-six interception to Al Harris. One more piece of history: Aaron Rodgers is just 9-7 in the playoffs and just 5-7 outside of the 2010 Super Bowl Championship season in which the Packers went 4-0.

The Seahawks will win if – DK Metcalf repeats his record-setting 160 yards, 1 touchdown performance from last Sunday.

The Packers will win if – Aaron Rodgers throws for 2+ touchdowns.

Prediction: Seahawks 27-24

Related Slideshow: NFL Power Rankings - Divisional Round - January 11, 2020

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Vikings (11-6, Wild Card Win over Saints – Previous ranking: 12th)

Sure, we told you that Dalvin Cook would be the force behind whether the Vikings could stay with the Saints last Sunday in the Superdome. Well, they both delivered. Cook, with 130 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns.

As for quarterback Kirk Cousins, he quickly put those doubts that he can play in the big games (0-9 on Monday nights), tossing two touchdowns, including the game-winner to Kyle Rudolph in overtime as well as an absolute dynamite drop-in dime to Adam Thielen to set up the victory. The road only gets tougher on a short week heading out to the West Coast to take on the rested 49ers Saturday. But as Cousins always says – “You like that!”

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Texans (11-6, Wild Card Win over Bills – Previous ranking: 9th)

Who would’ve given the Texans a chance, down 16-0 in the third quarter against the Bills? They were down, out and headed home until Deshaun Watson rallied his mates to a thrilling 22-19 overtime win. Heading into Kansas City, Houston won’t be able to rely on a young quarterback, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, making mistakes late in the game to help them.

Patrick Mahomes is playoff-tested and ready for the challenge. Running the ball and playing keep away might be Houston’s best play. In their week 6 win earlier this season, the Texans held the ball for 39 of the game’s 60 minutes, outgaining the Chiefs 472-309 yards on offense.

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Titans (10-7, Wild Card Win over Patriots – Previous ranking: 10th)

Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry. That about sums up all you needed to know about the Titans offense Saturday night against the Patriots. About the only thing he didn’t do was sell popcorn. Henry ran for 182 yards and a touchdown while setting up another score with a 22-yard catch and run. All quarterback Ryan Tannehill had to do was manage the game, throwing for only 72 yards, completing only eight of fifteen passes.

The difference turned out to be Tennessee’s stonewalling goal-line defense, stuffing the Patriots on first and goal-to-go on three straight runs, limiting them to a field goal in the second quarter. Can the Titans keep up with the firepower of the Ravens up next in Baltimore? That remains to be seen. Can the Ravens keep up with Henry? That too will be a sight to see as the Titans look for a repeat Saturday night special.

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Seahawks (12-5, Wild Card Win over Eagles – Previous ranking: 6th)

Let’s be honest, no one expected the Seahawks to have to go through backup quarterback Josh McCown last week in Philadelphia in order to advance to the Divisional Round. But, that’s the thing about the playoffs. It’s not how you advance, it’s THAT you advance. Russell Wilson and crew did just enough to get past the Eagles, 17-9 and move on to Green Bay, a place they haven’t won since 1999.

One thing they would like to see repeated in the outstanding performance of rookie wide receiver D.K. Metcalf. The second-round pick wowed to the tune of seven catches, 160 yards, a touchdown and a game-sealing catch on third down late in the fourth quarter. Another performance like that and the Seahawks may be headed back to the NFC Championship.

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Packers (13-3, NFC North Champion – Previous ranking: 5th)

All season long, it’s been more of a team win in Green Bay than in year’s past where the Packers would have to rely on Aaron Rodgers arm and feet to rally them to victories. Don’t believe me. Green Bay’s ranked 18th offensively and defensively. Nothing to write home about, but it got them to 13 wins.

This season, there’s Aaron Jones ground attack (a league-best tying 16 touchdowns with Derrick Henry) to go with Rodgers diverse passing game (26 touchdowns with only four interceptions), along with a defense that at times this season, has looked dominant. With a couple of weeks to prepare, expect a few new wrinkles from first year head coach Matt LaFleur in his playoff debut.

And of course, it’ll be cold with temperatures in the low 20’s and teens during the game Sunday night.

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Chiefs (12-4, AFC West Champion – Previous ranking: 4th)

If there’s a non-favorite to put your money on, it may be these Kansas City Chiefs. After a tough stretch mid-season losing four of six games, including three in a row at home, KC hasn’t lost since November 10th, winning six in a row. Now, with an unexpected first-round bye after the Patriots week 17 loss, the Chiefs get to welcome Houston to Arrowhead Stadium in a revenge game from earlier this season in which the Texans rallied from a 17-3 and 24-23 deficit to win.

All the Chiefs have to do for motivation is look back one season to the AFC Championship in which they lost to the Patriots, not getting a chance to touch the ball in overtime with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line. Don’t expect these Chiefs to miss out on this golden opportunity this time, especially with a defense that’s given up only an average of 11.5 points per game in the past six games

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49ers (13-3, NFC West Champion – Previous ranking: 2nd)

A few years ago, Patriots fans had visions of a Jimmy Garoppolo-led team playing in the postseason. Now, of course, Jimmy G has the Niners leading the way in the NFC as the number one seed with upset-minded Minnesota coming to Santa Clara Saturday. What’s scary is that Garoppolo is barely scratching the surface to what he can be, now just one year removed from a torn ACL.

While completing nearly 70% of his passes, Garoppolo tossed 27 touchdowns. Yet, during the 49ers December stretch of five games, Garoppolo threw for more than just one touchdown once – a four TD performance against the Saints in New Orleans.

How balanced are the Niners? They’re ranked 4th overall in offense and 2nd overall in defense. Beware of those who dare come by the Bay to take away their threat of a Super Bowl trip to Miami.

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Ravens (14-2, AFC North Champion – Previous ranking: 1st)

The only thing negative that’s happened to the Ravens, winners of 12 in a row, the past 12 weeks is a week 16 calf injury to running back Mark Ingram. The battering ram to the Ravens’ rushing attack is questionable to play Saturday night in what would be a blow to the NFL’s top-ranked ground game, averaging 206 yards per game.

Yet, even if Ingram can’t go, Gus Edwards is a very capable backup and let’s not forget, the straw that stirs the drink is the Most Valuable Player in waiting, quarterback Lamar Jackson, who ranked eighth in rushing with 1,206 yards in the regular season. Will a bye slow them down? It’ll now be almost three weeks that some starters like Jackson, Ingram, Earl Thomas and Mark Andrews have played as all of them took off a week 17 win over the Steelers.