NFL Draft: Patriot Games – What to do, or not to do?

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

John Rooke, GoLocalProv Sports Editor

Put the labor troubles aside - we all have our own ideas about what the Patriots should do for the upcoming NFL Draft.

However, what they should do, and what they will do – as we know – are two completely different things.

The New England Patriots had unexpected success last season, yet even though there were more wins and fewer losses than originally predicted – the playoff defeat at the hands of the New York Jets (the HATED Jets) at Gillette Stadium in January still stings. As the 2011 NFL Draft begins Thursday night, rest assured the Patriots hierarchy also feels the sting that lingers from a sudden playoff defeat.

But that doesn’t mean they’ll trade up for a “name” player, or necessarily put themselves in a position to create a “wow” factor for other teams to notice. No…you need to remember – these are the Bill Belichick-led Patriots, the Patriots that do what they believe is in the best interest of the team, and of the franchise…which doesn’t always translate into “wow” for the fans.

Thanks to their business acumen, and their shrewd ability to stockpile draft picks, the Patriots again this year find themselves in great shape – owning three of the top 33 selections in the draft – more than any other team. The question is…what to do with those picks?

Keep them all? Not likely. Based on track record alone, the Patriots like to hoard picks for future drafts, so it stands to reason they’ll keep one or two…but pick up an additional selection or two for a future draft with the other. Smart money says the Patriots will be involved in a Draft Day One deal for one or more of their three selections.

Based on an unscientific survey of a select social media group (Facebook friends, what else?) of Patriots fans, the majority seem to agree with a potential trade scenario. Here then, are best-guess looks at what the Patriots should do with their picks, and what they will do with them:

Should Pick - 1st Round, overall selection #17 (obtained from Oakland)
The Patriots should keep this pick, and select Alabama running back Mark Ingram, the Heisman Trophy winner of 2009. Compared favorably in style and physical description to NFL hall-of-fame back Emmitt Smith, Ingram could be that once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to set your running game in shape for the next decade. Several suggestions from league sources over the past 48 hours indicate the Patriots could package this pick with either #28 or #33 to move UP in the draft if a top coveted player slides a few slots (Patrick Peterson from LSU or Marcell Dareus, Alabama), or if Ingram is on the rise. The downside to this selection could be lingering knee problems that caused Ingram to miss a portion of the 2010 season.

Will Pick
The Patriots sorely lacked a consistent pass rush from the defensive side in 2010, and even though they’ve made strides in improving on that side of the ball, they stay with the “defense wins championships” philosophy. Depending on who remains on the draft board when they select at number 17, the Patriots will pick either Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt (6-5, 290), California defensive end Cameron Jordan (6-4, 287) or Temple defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (6-4, 315).

Should Pick – 1st round, overall selection #28 (own selection)
If the Patriots go defense with #17, they’ll go offense here. Needing help on the offensive line due to the retirement of guard Stephen Neal, the wear and tear on center Dan Koppen, and due to the uncertain future of all-Pro guard Logan Mankins (he is a franchised player for 2011, which most likely means he will be in New England this year), the Patriots look to the future and go with a versatile offensive lineman. Boston College’s Anthony Castonzo will probably already be gone, so the Patriots should take either tackle Nate Solder (6-8, 319) from Colorado, or guard Danny Watkins (6-4, 310) from Baylor. If the Pats pick offense (like Ingram) at #17, look for the best defensive end remaining to be selected at #28.

Will Pick
This pick will be the most popular selection for the other 31 teams during the entire draft. Why? Because there will be many teams wanting this pick, and the value of the selection will far outweigh the actual “chart” value. The 28th pick will become an “auction” pick, going to the highest bidder…just because there will be someone who doesn’t want to leave the draft party without a date. The Patriots live for these moments, and will trade #28 to the highest bidder, for future considerations (extra picks in coming years).

Should Pick – 1st selection, 2nd round (overall #33, from Carolina)
If the above “should pick” scenarios unfold, the Patriots should then trade #33 – the first pick of the second round – to the highest bidder. This will be the opening selection of the second day of the draft as well, and there will undoubtedly be interest from teams looking to make a splash. However, if lightning strikes and the Patriots actually keep each of their first three selections, look for a linebacker (Jabaal Sheard, Pittsburgh or Brooks Reid, Arizona) to figure into this position.

Will Pick
Based on the above “will pick” selections, the Patriots will take their highest remaining offensive lineman with #33 (Solder, Watkins, or Derrick Sherrod from Mississippi State). There remains an outside chance with a running back at this spot, but best guess here is that the Patriots, as per the norm, will find the greater need in the trenches.

The scenarios are many, the variables are too many. The only thing certain is uncertainty. That’s the fun and intrigue of the NFL Draft for football fans, for Patriots fans, and for guys like Mel Kiper, Jr. What the Patriots should do – and what they will do – is likely to keep fans talking, and interested. If labor unrest continues much longer, the Patriots are counting on it.

John Rooke has been the stadium “Voice of the Patriots” since 1993, and hosts “Patriots Playbook” on Patriots.com radio during the season.