10 Things You Need to Know About the Gomez - Markey Race
Friday, May 31, 2013
Here are 10 things you need to know about the June 25th special election between veteran Congressman Ed Markey and GOP candidate Gabriel Gomez:.
1) The Cook Report has re-scored the race from “Leaning Democrat” to “Toss Up.” Jennifer Duffy, who often contributes insights to GoLocalWorcester, reforecast the race late Thursday and has admitted publicly that this race is too hard to predict and surprisingly competitive.
2) According to the most recent campaign finance reports filed with the FEC, Ed Markey has $4.6 million in cash on hand and GOP challenger Gabriel Gomez has $499,000 in cash on hand. It is rare that anyone wins a significant seat getting outspent 2 to 1, but it would be unmatched for Gomez to overcome a fundraising deficit like this. Markey has raised more than $500,000 from PACs and Gomez reports zero.
4) Markey has picked up the endorsements of President Obama, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Boston’s Mayor Tom Menino, Governor Deval Patrick and much of organized labor. Gomez has picked up the endorsement of former moderate Republican Governor William Weld.
5) Some have argued that the GOP would better suited if Gomez lost a close race for the Senate. The gain of one seat in the U.S. Senate does not significantly benefit the Republicans and like Scott Brown found out, it may be difficult to defend the seat in a non-special election.
The benefit of a close loss would be that Gomez could run as Brown’s Lt. Governor in a superstar ticket to take over Beacon Hill and capture the Governor’s office. There is a lot more power of the GOP if they control the State House than a Senate seat in the minority.
6) Gomez’ TV spots are just better. Markey is buying 6 to 8 times more TV spots.
7) Central Mass was the key to Scott Brown’s victory in 2010. He beat Martha Coakley by the following margins in key swing towns:
Shrewsbury: Brown 60% Coakley 40%
Grafton: Brown 64% Coakley 34%
Auburn: Brown 62% Coakley 37%
Fitchburg: Brown 59% Coakley 40%
Does anyone think Gomez can win in Central Mass by the same margin?
8) Gomez trails Markey by less in the polling than Brown trailed Coakley at the same time in the race in 2010.
9) Coakley was humiliated by the loss to Brown, but a Markey loss might be even more embarrassing. He is more established, has far more economic resources than Gomez, and Gomez was an even bigger long shot than Brown was in 2010.
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