Finneran: Our Next President
Friday, November 13, 2015
As was the case in 1987/1988, 1999/2000 and 2007/2008, Democrats and Republicans begin to give less time and attention to the waning incumbent and more time and attention to the potential successors. I call it political shelf life and Barack Obama is an astute student of this political phenomenon. He knows what’s going on here.
And so we shift our gaze to the current battlefield:
THE DEMOCRATS: Hillary Clinton has regained her footing. This race is over.
Jim Webb has officially withdrawn. Few people beyond his immediate family circle even knew he was a candidate. It’s too bad because he’s a thoughtful interesting guy with lots of experience.
Martin O’Malley awaits the coroner’s report on the exact time of his death. Some pundits say he died when Maryland elected a Republican to succeed him as Governor of that fine state, as if an election where his name was not on the ballot is some type of referendum on him. I disagree. His campaign went up in smoke during the Baltimore riots over the death of Freddie Gray. Events beyond his control wrote his obituary. Politics can be a tough and cruel calling.
Bernie Sanders has enjoyed a lot of unexpected fun on the campaign trail---big crowds, lots of media attention, rising polls, and surprising money, but Bernie is going exactly nowhere in this race. He’s a Socialist by self-identification and while Democratic activists today thrill to the call of wars on Wall Street and secret oligarchies, the Democratic Party is not going to commit suicide by following Bernie over the barricades. There is a cold and ruthless calculus underway about the importance of holding on to the White House. Ben and Jerry’s is not on the menu.
Hillary Clinton has seemingly weathered the campaigns of opponents who were not really opponents. She will benefit from the practice and the experience of debates which were never going to be a serious threat. Consider it Spring training, where she’s seeing lots of pitches and getting her timing down. She can hit the ball, particularly if the umpires, i.e. the media, are calling balls and strikes. The Republicans had best be very careful here. If they get cocky they will lose.
THE REPUBLICANS: This race is not over. In fact this race might not be over until the late Spring of next year.
Dead as dinosaurs: Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, and Carly Fiorina. They are interesting characters individually and collectively and they might still shape the race, particularly if they move to endorse as a group. One or two of them might even be considered as a Vice-Presidential choice (Kasich or Fiorina).
Donald Trump has been the wonder of the field for several months now, bewildering his many critics with his political staying power. Behold the wizard, who will begin to fall if and when an early state (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina) relegates him to a second or third-place finish. The media will pounce and Trump’s temperament is not suited to being deemed a “loser”, an also ran. His secret ingredient? He plays perfectly to American yearning for political simplicity—the old Soviet vs. USA model, with today’s jihadists playing the role of the Soviets. It’s an us against them mentality, a good-bad, right-wrong, smart-stupid equation and the absolute mess of immigration feeds him all the material he needs. Plus, the pictures of hundreds of thousands of refugees overwhelming the borders, schools, hospitals, and culture of many European countries gives Trump the visuals of his argument.
Ben Carson is a nice guy who will not be President. I admire him. He is soft-spoken, patient, and courteous, in glaring contrast to the Donald. By all accounts he was a very good surgeon. His life story of high achievement in the face of many barriers is a classic Horatio Alger American story. He certainly provides an interesting alternative politics to Americans, particularly black Americans who might seek a change in the status quo. He will be in the Cabinet if the Republicans win the election.
Jeb Bush keeps trying and trying. Give him an “A’ for effort. His problems are a) his name and b) his personality. I think he drops out after Iowa/New Hampshire. At this point how does he grow? From whom can he poach votes? Perhaps Trump, perhaps Carson, but not likely. Those voters who might leave Trump and Carson will more likely go to.....
Rubio or Cruz. My eyes, my ears, my gut, and my brain say that Marco Rubio will be the Republican nominee. He is the easiest choice for Republican voters who are migrating from doomed candidacies. His life story is compelling. And he’s the best debater in the country, hands down.
Ted Cruz, quick on his feet, is just too hot for too many. And there are many lying in wait to exact revenge for his renegade tactics. Revenge is a powerful motivator in the world of politics. He needs insurance for his kneecaps.
Chris Christie is simply too Jersey. Iowa will doom Christie in New Hampshire. Christie cannot win in Iowa and the stories that emerge from Iowa will be about Trump, Carson, and someone else not named Christie. With only eight days between the Iowa caucuses (Feb. 1st) and the New Hampshire primary (Feb. 9th), Christie cannot break through the noise. The lights, the cameras, the columns and the crowds will be about someone else.
So there you have it, the unconventional wisdom of the day………..supplied as a public service and not to be used for betting purposes.
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