Horowitz: Democratic Nomination Remains Up for Grabs

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

The still wide-open nature of the contest for the Democratic nomination for president is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that FiveThirtyEight currently calculates that there is a better chance of no one winning a majority of the delegates by the end of the primaries than the front-runner as of today, Bernie Sanders winning a majority It rates no one winning a majority as 2-out-of-5, while it rates Sanders only a one-in-three shot.

The results of the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire, did have an impact on the fortunes of individual candidates, but left us with at least as many questions as answers. As a result, the ultimate shape of the nomination fight will be determined by future primaries and caucuses. It will likely not become clear until after Super Tuesday on March 3rd when 14 states, including California and Texas, cast their primary ballots.

The most important campaign development to emerge from Iowa and New Hampshire is the precipitous decline in Joe Biden’s position in the race. While no one expected him to win in these states, his poor 4th place showing in Iowa, a state he devoted major time and resources to, followed by an even worse 5th place in New Hampshire, where he received less than 10 % of the vote, moved him from the nominal over-all front-runner to a candidacy that appears nearly as exhausted as he sometimes does on the campaign trail. His poor showing is compounding his problems raising money and predictably negatively impacting his poll numbers in the next two contests, Nevada and South Carolina, whose more diverse and less college-educated caucus and primary electorates respectively should be better for him.

A Biden comeback is not out of the question, but he needs a strong showing in Nevada on Saturday and a win in South Carolina the following week, which appears increasingly unlikely. Further, he needs to dramatically improve his performance as a candidate in general, painting a compelling picture of what a Biden presidency would mean. He is having a particularly difficult time attracting support among younger voters who make up an increasingly large portion of the electorate and it is hard to see what changes this. In Iowa, for example, the Biden supporters between the ages of 18 and 30 could have caucused for him in a phone booth.

Senator Bernie Sanders not only edged out former Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg as the strongest performer in the first two contests, he benefited from the disappointing performances of Senator Elizabeth Warren whose 4th place finish in her neighboring state of New Hampshire was particularly damaging to her candidacy. Still, witnessing Sanders only garner 26% in New Hampshire and best Buttigieg by less than 2 percentage points, when he received about 60 % in 2016, shows why he is not perceived as a more commanding front runner. This is especially the case, given that Buttigieg eked out a win against Sanders in Iowa.

Both Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar, who was the candidate who most exceeded expectations, finishing a strong 3rd in New Hampshire, enter the next contests with forward momentum, but still face big challenges in turning their early strong showings into strong national candidacies. To be competitive on Super Tuesday, both of these candidates need to continue their strong showings in the next two contests.

Perhaps the candidate best positioned to benefit the most if the Biden candidacy continues to collapse is former Mayor of New York City Mike Bloomberg. Fueled by an unprecedented more than $350 million and counting in ad spending, Bloomberg is moving up quickly in national and Super Tuesday states’ polling. He now faces a critical next two weeks of his campaign as the candidate behind the favorable images communicated in his television ads is about to come out from behind the curtain and to do so to increasing scrutiny of his record. Bloomberg will likely be on the debate stage tomorrow with the other candidates and be under fire for his past sexist statements and the claims of some of his former female employees that he created a hostile work environment at his company as well as for his previous support of stop and frisk, both topics of prominent recent media coverage, likely triggered by opposition research leaks from his opponents.

If Bloomberg can perform well in this decisive moment, there is no Biden comeback and neither Buttigieg or Klobuchar wins in Nevada or South Carolina, the former NYC Mayor may do well enough on Super Tuesday, to turn this contest into essentially a two-person race between him and Sanders. He is the only candidate with the resources to do saturation level advertising in the Super Tuesday states, which is an enormous advantage.

The only thing for certain, however, is that the race for the Democratic nomination remains uncertain, best characterized as still up for grabs.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

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Horowitz: Democratic Nomination Remains Up for Grabs

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