Horowitz: It’s Time to Take on Assault Weapons & High Capacity Magazines

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Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™

Since the assault weapons ban was allowed to expire in 2004-- a time where support for gun control had waned a bit and the National Rifle Association (NRA) was at the height of their power and influence--there has been a major increase in fatalities from mass shootings.  In fact, a 2018 study cited by Everytown for Gun Safety, “found that mass shooting fatalities were 70 percent less likely to occur from 1994 to 2004, when the federal prohibition on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines was in effect, than during the 12 years studied before and after the prohibition. Researchers estimate a federal Assault Weapon Ban (AWB) would have prevented 314 of 448 mass shooting deaths that occurred during the studied periods where the AWB was not in effect.”

In the wake of the most recent mass shootings in Waco, Texas and Dayton, Ohio, where 22 people and 9 people died respectively and dozens more were injured, Congress is slated to at least consider some common-sense gun safety measures when they return from summer recess in September.  While expanded background checks and a red flag law to give law enforcement the power to at least temporarily remove guns from the possession of people who appear to be a danger to others or themselves are the measures with at least some prospect of passing, it is time to put an upgraded and improved assault weapons ban with strict restrictions on magazine capacity back on the national legislative agenda.  Given the current strong resistance of most Congressional Republicans to all, but the most, minimal gun safety measures, this task falls on the Democratic majority in the House.

Admittedly, the odds of succeeding in this endeavor this fall are very long, but it is important to begin what in all likelihood will need to be a long-term sustained effort.  For reinstituting an upgraded assault weapon and high capacity magazine ban is the single most effective step that our nation can take to limit the carnage from mass shootings.  As the Washington Post reported, in Dayton, for example, “it took a shooter all of 32 seconds to spray 41 rounds” due to his use of a military-style weapon he purchased legally.  Mass shootings in which a weapon with a high capacity magazine was employed--defined as holding more than 10 rounds--resulted in twice as many fatalities and 14 times as many injuries per incident, according to an analysis of mass shootings from 2009 to 2017 conducted by Everytown.  As a former special agent for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives David Chipman told The New York Times, “The high-capacity magazine is what takes it to a whole other level of carnage. It’s the primary driver for why we’re seeing more mass shootings more regularly.”

The mounting deaths from mass shootings are also shifting the politics on common-sense gun safety measures, making this a good time to advance a more ambitious set of proposals.  There is now a substantial majority of Americans in favor of an assault weapons ban.   Additionally, due to major internal problems, the NRA’s ability to influence elections and Congress has markedly weakened. At the same time, the pro-common-sense gun safety measures side has dramatically increased their power in large measure as a result of former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s demonstrated willingness to spend millions of dollars backing pro-gun safety candidates.

It is hard to see a national assault weapons ban occurring before the 2020 elections-and in all likelihood any success after that will only happen, if hard fought.  But as John F. Kennedy said in his famous inaugural address, “Let us begin.”

 

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

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