Horowitz: Second Round of Democratic Debates Clarified Very Little
Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Joe Biden
While the former vice-president markedly improved from his sub-par performance in the first round of debates, he was still insufficiently crisp to remove the concern that at 76 years old he has lost at least a little off his fastball. Since the main selling point of his candidacy is his electability, this is essential for him to do going forward. He did do a better job of parrying attacks-which came from a number of his opponents--effectively reminding viewers of his close partnership with Barack Obama who remains overwhelmingly popular with Democratic primary voters. But he still needs to give voters a better sense of his vision for the future and the top priorities for his presidency.
Senator Kamala Harris took a step backward from her widely praised performance in the first debate as Biden and Senator Michael Bennet (CO) hit her on her “Medicare for All” health care plan and Representative Tulsi Gabbard (HI) attacked her record as California Attorney General and as a prosecutor. She did not do a good job of defending her” Medicare for All” plan in which she seems to want to have it both ways, leaving in a confusing or at least not well-explained “private Medicare option’’ as part of her 10 year transition from private health insurance to a mainly government run health insurance system. She was also put on the defensive on her record as Attorney General, seeming too anxious to run away from the fact that she was a tough, but fair prosecutor, which for most voters even in Democratic primaries is still far more a plus than a minus.
In the wake of this performance, the momentum from her strong outing in the first debate, which was already waning, is likely to come to a halt. On the other hand, Kamala Harris remains a formidable candidate with a realistic path to the nomination.
Michael Bennet turned in another solid debate performance and remains well-positioned to move into the top tier of candidates if Biden falters and leaves an opening for a moderate alternative.
The best debate performance of the two nights was turned in by Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA) who easily repelled the attacks on her embrace of “Medicare for All” and gave a concrete and compelling picture of her presidential agenda. Her candidacy continues to gain strength as she moves up in the polls and raises money at a substantial clip. When the field narrows, she is in a strong position to make a real run for the nomination, advantaged by the fact that the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire, should be good states for her. Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) also acquitted himself well, improving upon his lackluster first debate outing, but with Warren in the race and performing well, it is hard to see a clearly marked way forward for Sanders.
The post-debate commentary was dominated by overheated conversation about whether the Democrats were blowing it by being too far to the left and by ill-advisedly criticizing the Obama record. While there is something to this, the Democratic party in 2020 will not end up being defined by these early debates with 20 candidates spread over 2 nights, but by whomever emerges as the victor--by the eventual nominee.
In terms of that decision, this second round left the race as muddy as ever. In fact, we may look back on the past couple weeks and say the most consequential development was the entrance of Tom Steyer, the California billionaire and activist, into the nomination fight and he was unable to participate in the debates. Mainly due to his late entry, he did not meet the threshold qualifications.
The next round of debates in September have tougher qualifications and as a result there should be fewer candidates--which may mean all the major candidates will appear on the same stage on one night. This may create more lasting impacts that give more shape to the nomination contest. My guess, however, is that definition and clarity will not truly arrive until the voting begins early next year. After the first few contests, the field will likely substantially narrow, leaving only a few candidates to battle it out.
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