What to Watch For: AFC Championship - Patriots vs. Colts

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Saturday, January 17, 2015

Matt LaPan, Go Local Sports Reporter

The wait is almost over. After a week of analyzing and breaking down the Indianapolis Colts, they New England Patriots will finally host the Colts in the AFC Championship this Sunday. This is the first meeting in the AFC Championship game between the two teams since the end of the 2006 season when the Colts took a 38-34 win over the Patriots and eventually won Peyton Manning’s first Super Bowl. It will be the third meeting overall between the two teams in the AFC Championship in the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era, with each team holding one win over the other to advance to the Super Bowl.

The Patriots have dominated recent meetings against the Colts, winning each of their previous five meetings against Indianapolis.

Sunday’s game will be the 9th AFC Championship game for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick as a tandem, and they will be in search of their 6th trip to the Super Bowl since 2000. Does the experience of Brady and Belichick give them the advantage over Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano? Can Darrelle Revis lead the Patriots defense over the high-powered Colts offense and get to his first Super Bowl? Here are some of the key matchup to watch in the AFC Championship game.

Darrelle Revis & Brandon Browner vs. T.Y. Hilton & Reggie Wayne

The Patriots acquired Revis and Browner in the offseason for moments such as this. Their combination of size, physicality and coverage skills are the perfect matchup to take on the size, speed and route running of Hilton and Wayne.

The Patriots started their Week 11 matchup with the Colts by having multiple players cover Wayne. When that did not work they switched Revis onto Wayne. Following the change, Wayne became a non-factor. Regis’ blanket coverage not only shut down Wayne, he also forced an Andrew Luck interception.

Expect the coverage to be a bit different on Sunday. It appears that Brandon Browner will be the matchup on Wayne. Wayne has slowed significantly, catching only 18 passes since being shut down by Revis. This includes being shut out last week against the Denver Broncos. Browner’s physicality on the line of scrimmage will disrupt Wayne’s routes and allow for help, namely Devin McCourty, to come over the top. 

This will lead to a great coverage matchup of Revis on Hilton. While Hilton has great speed and runs good routes, he will be going up against the premier cornerback in the NFL. Revis can, and has covered the best that the NFL has to offer. He will be able to blanket Hilton in coverage and effectively take out the top offensive threat outside of Andrew Luck.

Patrick Chung vs. Coby Fleener

Patrick Chung has revived his career after a strong 2014 season with the Patriots. He does still struggle in coverage. This was evident when the Patriots took on the Colts in 2014 — when Coby Fleener dominated the game. Fleener caught seven passes on seven targets for 144 yards. Fleener’s presence kept the Colts in the game through three quarters before the Patriots pulled away.

The Patriots will look to jam Fleener off the line, but without help for Chung it could be a huge advantage for the Colts.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Colts Defensive Backs

The biggest advantage in the AFC Championship game is Rob Gronkowski going against the defensive backs of the Colts. The Colts will try to throw Mike Adams, LaRon Landry and possibly even Sergio Brown at Gronkowski, but his dominance will shine through.

Gronkowski, the 2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year, finished the regular season with 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also had a great game in the AFC Divisional round against the Ravens. Gronkowski had seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown.

Combine this with Gronkowski’s four-catch, 71-yard and one touchdown game against the Colts and you have the Patriots’ recipe for success. Not only did Gronkowski dominate in the passing game, he was a dominant run blocker — helping Jonas Gray run for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Gronkowski also had his famous “threw him out the club” moment when he tossed Sergio Brown into the television truck on the sidelines.

Gronkowski’s advantage as a pass catcher and a run blocker will be the key to a successful Patriots AFC Championship game.

Prediction: Patriots 34 Colts 21

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