What to Watch For: Patriots vs Texans

Sunday, December 01, 2019

Joe Calabro, GoLocalWorcester Sports Team

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense looks to take advantage of Houston's red zone problems. PHOTO: Jeff Beall/Flickr Commons

Thanksgiving has come and gone which means the NFL season is in its home stretch of games leading up to the playoffs.

For the New England Patriots, that stretch begins on Sunday night in Houston against the Texans.

“This is an important time of year for every team and the teams that are fortunate enough to really still be in it. This is the time where you’ve pretty much seen what you can do and what the other teams can do and the roles guys play and so forth,” said Patriots quarterback Tom Brady during his press conference on Friday.

New England enters the game in first place in the AFC with a record of 10-1, while the Texans are 7-4 and lead the AFC South.

“This is another really impressive team. They’ve done a good job in all areas down there – really productive on offense, defense, special teams – obviously well-coached, a lot of good players,” said Patriots head coach Bill Belichick during his press conference on Wednesday.

Game time is set for 8:25 p.m.

See What to Watch for in the Slideshow Below

Patriots vs Texans

Sunday night’s game will be the 12th meeting between the two franchises with the Patriots winning ten of the previous 11 games, including playoffs.

The last meeting between the teams came last year in the season opener when the Patriots held off the Texans 27-20 at Gillette Stadium.

“Certainly, a lot of changes since the last time we played them, so it’s a little different than when we opened with them last year we had seen them more recently. There’s a little more space between these games and I’d say quite a few personnel changes from the last time. It is what it is,” added Belichick.

The Patriots have won the last eight meetings, with Houston’s last victory coming in 2010.

See What to Watch for in the Slideshow Below

Related Slideshow: What to Watch For: Patriots vs Texans - December 1, 2019

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Red Zone Offense

During a season in which the Patriots red zone offense is ranked among the worst in the league, perhaps the Texans defense is what New England needs to “get well.”

The Patriots come into the game ranked 25th in the league in red zone scoring, getting touchdowns on just 47% of their red zone trips. By comparison, last season New England was scoring touchdowns on 63% of their red-zone trips.

The good news for the Patriots is that the Houston Texans red zone defense is the worst in the NFL and their third-down defense is the second-worst.

The Texans give up touchdowns on 65% of their opponent's red zone possessions, which is the worst in the NFL behind the Jets and Raiders.

“They have a very good group of linebackers. Certainly, [Benardrick] McKinney and [Zach] Cunningham are two outstanding players inside and [Whitney] Mercilus, [Brennan] Scarlett on the edge, those two guys are – both do a really good job of playing the run, rushing the passer, pursue plays, chase plays. That’s one of the best groups in the league,” said Patriots head coach Bill Belichick during his press conference on Friday.

On the Patriots side of things, quarterback Tom Brady has completed 39 of 67 passes from inside the red zone with a completion percentage of 58.

He has eight touchdowns and two interceptions.

Another issue the Patriots have had all season is running the ball and running it inside the red zone.

Second-year running back Sony Michel has carried the ball 32 times for 56 yards and six touchdowns from inside the red zone on the season.

New England should be helped by the return of Isaiah Wynn, who will play his second game since coming back from injury on Sunday and the continued development of N’Keal Harry.

Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett are also expected to return to the lineup.

PHOTO: Peter Bond/Flickr Commons

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Rushing Defense

The Patriots' ability to stop the run will be tested against the Houston Texans.

Entering Sunday night’s game, the Texans are averaging 4.97 yards per attempt, which is third-most in the NFL.

The Texans running attack is led by Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson.

“Both Duke and Carlos are having a good year for them. Hyde is a strong, powerful runner, hard to tackle, has good quickness, runs with good pad level,” said Belichick during his press conference on Wednesday.

Belichick added, “Johnson plays on third down, but Johnson also plays on all downs so he’s kind of a versatile player, not just a third-down back but again, has plenty of playing time on early downs, as well.”

Hyde comes into the game averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and has racked up 836 rushing yards so far this season.

Johnson is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt on the year.

Then there is quarterback Deshaun Watson, who can make plays with his legs when he has too.

Watson is averaging 5.2 yards per attempt so far this season.

“Any time he gets out in a space it’s a problem. He can run, he can throw on the run. Usually, when he scrambles, he has space to pull up and throw. He’s not scrambling into traffic – he rarely does that. Once he gets out on the move, he has plenty of time to survey the field and make a good decision and throw it in there,” said Belichick.

The Patriots are the ninth-ranked defense against the run this season.

New England gives up an average of 98 yards per game, but has given up an average of 133 rushing yards per game over their last three contests.

PHOTO: Jeffrey Beall/Flickr Commons

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James White

Look for the Patriots to get James White involved in the passing game early on.

White is coming off of two straight games in which he has not been involved very much in the offense.

Against the Eagles and Cowboys, White has a combined five catches on ten targets for ten yards with no touchdowns.

Against Dallas, White had one catch for -6 yards.

The return of Sanu and Dorsett should help White get favorable matchups out of the backfield.

What should also help is that the Texans are one of the worst passing defenses in the league.

Houston gives up an average of 259 yards per game, while ranking 30th in the NFL in interception rate.

The Texans are also 27th in sacks per pass attempt

So far this season, White has 49 catches for 414 yards and one touchdown in ten games.

He also has racked up 129 rushing yards on 39 carries and a touchdown.

PHOTO: Patriots media website

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Kai Forbath

Kai Forbath will be the Patriots field goal kicker on Sunday night after Nick Folk underwent an emergency appendectomy on Thanksgiving morning.

“We’ll see how it goes. We worked Kai out earlier this fall – I don’t know, three or four weeks ago, whenever it was. So, we’ll see how it goes,” said Belichick during his press conference on Friday.

According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Forbath’s stay with the Patriots could be short as Folk’s surgery was minimally invasive and may only cause him to miss one game.

“Right now we’re going to go down and play Houston, try to go down and beat Houston. That’s the intention right now. That’s our goal. So, we’ll worry about next week, next week,” added Belichick.

About Forbath

Forbath, 32, is in his eighth season in the league after kicking for the Redskins, Saints, Vikings, and Jaguars over the last seven seasons.

However, he has not been on an NFL roster since the end of last season, when he played for the Jaguars over the final three weeks of the year.

Overall, Forbath has converted 85.7 percent of his field-goal attempts and 94 percent of his extra points.

PHOTO: Patriots media website